This line is currently -116 on FD. The Brewers will send Freddy Peralta to the mound who has become one of the best pitchers in the league. Last year he was elite, and he’s continued that into this year. So far this season, lefties are striking out at a 42% rate while holding just a .111 xISO/.204 xwOBA line against him. Righties have struck-out at a 35% rate against Peralta, and Peralta has a whopping 18.7% swinging strike rate against righties. On the other side of the field, the Cardinals will send Kyle Gibson to the mound, who has been getting hit hard. Righties have hit him to a tune of .247 xISO/.404 xwOBA so far this season, and lefties hold a .305 xISO/.443 xwOBA against him. These stats are egregiously bad and the Brewers offense is super hot to start this season. We think the Brewers have a huge advantage on both sides of the ball tonight and would take this line up to -140.
