Optimal Plays: Fox, Adebayo (FD), Herro, Vucevic (DK), Murray, Murphy (FD), Jaquez, Caruso (FD), Ellis (DK), Valanciunas (DK), Barnes, Martin (FD)
GPP Plays: Sabonis, Adebayo (DK), DeRozan, McCollum, Ingram, White, Dosunmu, Caruso (DK), Ellis (FD), Martin, Jovic/Highsmith (whoever starts), Lyles, Mitchell
Pending Injury News: Dosunmu, Caruso, Drummond
It is the last set of play-in games on this Friday night! We will know our entire playoff bracket once these games are done. The games tonight don’t have much pending injury news, but will be shaped by injury still, with both Jimmy Butler and Zion Williamson missing their respective games due to injuries suffered in their 1st play-in games. Those 2 teams have more to dig through than the other ones, so let’s get to it!
Our first game of the slate will be our Eastern Conference game, with the Chicago Bulls visiting the Miami Heat. It is the lower total today at 206, but only by about 4 points, and Miami is favored by 1.5 points. With Miami, everything will look much different from Tuesday due to the injury of Jimmy Butler. This team is cheaper as a whole on FD, causing it to be much more popular there. Bam Adebayo is going to be asked to take this team to the playoffs and will get all the scoring load he can handle. Part of that is the matchup, he’s just too quick for Vucevic and has owned him the last couple of years, scoring no fewer than 23 points in their last four meetings. He’s cheap and therefore projecting chalky on FD but still worth it, and coming in at only 26% projected ownership on DK, is a great stud option there. The second guy who will have the ball a lot is Tyler Herro. He’s averaged 21.6/5.6/4.6 this year in 14 games without Jimmy, and this could be a spot where he scores a lot as Chicago gives up a ton of 3-pointers. It’ll only be better if Caruso can’t go since he’ll draw the Herro assignment. Jaime Jaquez looked great in limited minutes against Philly and showed some of the fearlessness that he had earlier in the season. He’ll most likely be starting and get less defensive attention from Chicago than Herro, who is pretty terrible defensively outside of Caruso. After those 3 guys, it’s a bit of throwing darts for Miami, but we might need 1 or 2 of them tonight, and there are paths for each of them. Caleb Martin will be on the floor a ton, and he could be asked to do more offensively as well if Jaquez can’t get going. Nikoa Jovic should still start but don’t be shocked if it’s Haywood Highsmith. Whichever one of them Spoelstra gives the nod to could be in line to beat their minutes projection, and both are capable of reaching the teens in scoring with some rebounding. Miami doesn’t really have anyone to take advantage of Chicago’s terrible catch-and-shoot defense, but if Duncan Robinson starts, he would be the one. He isn’t our favorite play, but if he makes everything else work and is in the starting lineup, there are worse bets to make. On the Chicago side, Coby White went nuts against Atlanta, continually getting to the rim at will. While he won’t be able to do that against Miami’s zone, he is capable of shooting over the top of it to help relieve some pressure inside. He’s made 4 or more in his last six meetings against Miami. He also is very comfortable as a playmaker, and will probably get blitzed some to get the ball out of his hands with how well he’s played, so could have a nice peripherals game as well with the assists. DeMar DeRozan is someone we know the story on by now: he’s going to play mid-40s minutes, he’ll have the ball in his hands a ton, and will get up plenty of shots. He’s a cash game priority just given the minutes, but he’ll have a place on GPP rosters as well since he should get more shots than last game. This is because of how bad the matchup is for Nikola Vucevic. Vucevic might have to play a ton, Drummond only went 11 minutes against Atlanta with his recent injury, so he probably won’t kill you from an optimal standpoint. But the matchup is just bad in both directions for Vooch against Bam, so you can look elsewhere for GPPs. Ayo Dosnumu went 41 minutes against Atlanta after being a game-time decision which is a good sign for his health. He could be another guy who gets a few open 3s against Miami’s zone. There isn’t much interest in Chicago outside of their starters. They were all on pace to play nearly 40 minutes if it wasn’t for Caruso’s ankle injury that made him miss a chunk of time last game, so I’d look for bench guys outside of this team.
Our next game will be our Western Conference game between the Sacramento Kings and the New Orleans Pelicans who will be without Zion Williamson in this matchup. Let’s start with the Pelicans side of things as this slate gets interesting with Zion out. Trey Murphy will most likely be inserted into the starting lineup in place of Zion where he becomes a viable play in both formats with his 3-point upside and the projected 38 minutes he is expected to soak up. We move on to our two studs Brandon Ingram and C.J. McCollum who will be tasked with carrying the load with Zion out. Let’s talk about the elephant in the room, Brandon Ingram was “limited” again and sat the majority of the fourth quarter despite Willie Green saying he should play more minutes. We loved him last game, and we love him again here. We don’t believe he was limited and didn’t touch the 4th quarter because of his injury, but more so due to the bench catching fire in that quarter. The Pelicans had been down all game until the bench players of Trey Murphy, Jose Alvarado, and Larry Nance helped go on a 13-2 run in the 4th to tie the game at 95-95. Willie Green was riding the hot hands in the unit that helped them stay in this game. With this being a win or go home game, we expect Ingram to play as much as he can handle because the Pelicans will need him. With Zion out of the lineup, Brandon Ingram has seen his usage increase to 32% which leads the team. He projects for just 29% ownership on this slate so he makes for a great play in GPPs. C.J. McCollum on the other hand trails Ingram in usage at 28%. According to DvP data, the Kings have allowed PG’s to score 24 PPG and 7.9 APG while also allowing 3 three-pointers made per game which should allow McCollum to thrive in this spot. The last four guys to discuss are Herb Jones, Jonas Valanciunas, Larry Nance, and Jose Alvarado. Jones will be a fine play in all formats with the minutes he should soak up since he will be needed to contain De’Aaron Fox and will put up a bit more shot volume with Zion out. Alvarado is more of a fade in this situation with better value options on the board, he arguably had his best game against the Lakers but only got as much run as he did due to being a part of the bench unit that sparked the 13-2 run. The last two to discuss are JoVal and Larry Nance. It will be interesting to see how the Pelicans approach this game. With Zion off the floor, first of all, Jonas sees a 24% usage rate with his AST% bumped to 14% and REB% up to 21%. While we don’t have previous games to look back to, we feel that JoVal will be needed this game and could be the X-factor to the Pelicans winning this game. He has had success in the past vs. the Kings putting up lines of 13-10-3, 15-12-1, and 18-11-0. He’s gotten a double-double in all games vs. the Kings and could do the same here which would make him a great play at the value price he has on DK. On FD he’ll be more of a GPP play. Lastly, Nance also makes for good value still at low ownership this time around since the Sacramento value is soaking up the projected ownership.
Now we move on to the Kings side of things as they will try to sneak into the playoffs without their 6th man Malik Monk and Kevin Huerter. KeonEllis has done a phenomenal job taking over the minutes Monk and Huerter have left behind and he played a crucial role in helping the Kings defeat the Warriors, as he drew the assignment on Steph Curry. He will once again be playing a crucial role with the assignment on C.J. McCollum. He projects for heavy ownership, rightfully so as his defensive upside enhances his game such as it did against the Warriors getting 3 blocks and 3 steals. The next two guys to discuss are the studs with DomantasSabonis and De’AaronFox. Sabonis will play his usual role being the jack of all trades and will command heavy ownership as the stud to have on this 2 game slate. Sabonis has had his fair share of success in this matchup despite the Kings taking 5 losses, putting up 18.8 PPG, 10.4 RPG, and 7.4 APG against the Pelicans. He will need his best today and should succeed with the 22% usage rate he sees on the team. He’s a great play in all formats and is very much worth eating the chalk. De’Aaron Fox on the other hand commands a 30% usage rate which leads the team and is projected for ownership in the 30’s which keeps him in the GPP range. Aside from two poor outings, Fox in his best three games vs. the Pelicans has put up games of 33-5-8, 30-5-4, and 26-2-5. He makes for a solid stud to pay up for and can be paired with Sabonis as they go well together. The last 4 guys to touch on are KeeganMurray, HarrisonBarnes, DavionMitchell, and TreyLyles. With the $3k value on this 2-game slate being slim, both Mitchell and Lyles are viable. Lyles saw 19 minutes and Mitchell saw 16 minutes of playing time. At that price range, they could do enough to pay off their price with Lyles 3-point upside and Mitchell could bounce back with a positive shooting night after going 2-9 from the field and 1-5 from 3 against the Warriors. With Huerter and Monk out, Murray and Barnes have handled all the minutes they could get and have been performing very well. According to DvP data, the Pelicans allow 3 three-pointers made per game to small forwards which should benefit Barnes here with his catch-and-shoot style of play. With the PF position, the Pelicans allow that position to score 20.4 PPG and grab 10.4 RPG so this is a spot that should benefit Murray. With the heavy ownership they are both projected to carry, this is not a spot to get cute fading the chalk as we feel you should eat it here on this two-game slate.