You currently can find this bet for -135 odds on BetMGM. We like it to -160.
Logan Gilbert is going up against the Texas Rangers and looks to be in a very strong spot himself. Logan has carried reverse splits this season, striking out 29% of lefties and 20.3% of righties. Lefties have a .118/.243 line against him while righties have a .209/.333 line driven by success off the heater (.259/.391). The issue for the Rangers here is that they are projected to start five righties and only two of them (Semien and Garcia) can touch a righty fastball. The others have been very poor (Langford, Duran, and Knizner). The starters for Seattle have been on an ungodly tear of late with tons of success at home. In their last 31 home starts, Seattle’s starters have amassed 26 quality starts, 27 starts of 6+ innings, 27 starts allowing 2 ER or fewer, and a whopping 1 start where they have allowed more than 3 runs. This staff is elite and Gilbert is a huge part of it.
On the other side, Dane Dunning is starting for Texas. The issues for Dunning as always are that he has strong K upside (24.1% against lefties and 27.0% against righties), but he gets beat around like a bass drum routinely. The Mariners are starting five lefties against him and lefties have a .260 xISO/.403 xwOBA off of him on the season. That has been driven by a .220/.379 line off the cutter and a .248/.451 line off the sinker. Righties also have a .264/.365 line off his sinker. Seattle has tons of bats with upside here including Crawford (.239/.354), Rojas (.252/.502), Rodriguez (.186/.397), Raleigh (.363/.420), Garver (.365 xwOBA), Raley (.472/.483), Canzone (.509/.577), and Moore (.399 xwOBA). Nearly top to bottom, they are set up to absolutely annihilate Dunning’s offerings. Yes, they swing and miss a ton against righties. But they also hit bombs and the ball should be flying all over the yard today. Lock in Seattle!