Dominators: Larson, Hamlin, Reddick, Bell, Blaney (GPP), Keselowski (GPP), Briscoe (Deep GPP)
Place Differential: Truex, Bowman, Gibbs, Wallace (GPP), Chastain (GPP), Gragson, Stenhouse, Dillon
This week NASCARs Cup Series heads to Iowa Speedway for the first time. This track was just partially repaved, and with that has brought us tire chaos so far this weekend. Five different cars had tires go down on them, causing them issues in practice. We also saw numerous XFinity drivers crash yesterday due to tire issues. With so much tire uncertainty, we encourage you to be contrarian on this slate in GPPs.
Kyle Larson is the top play on the slate, for many reasons. Larson qualified on the pole, and should lead the early laps. He had a strong car in practice, and will also benefit from the preferred pit stall on pit road. Larson will be very highly owned, but rightfully so. The only reason to fade him would be to hope he has some sort of an issue or crashes. Barring any unfortunate incidents for Larson, we expect him to be optimal.
With 350 laps in this race, we are going to want at least two potential dominators in our lineups. After Larson, our favorites would be Denny Hamlin, Tyler Reddick, and Christopher Bell. We expected the Toyota’s to be very good, and they were, as each of these guys had top 10 cars in practice. Reddick in particular is very under priced and we like him a lot in GPPs, since there are some chalky drivers priced near him, which means he is a great pivot.
In GPPs, you can mix Ryan Blaney and Brad Keselowski into your dominator pool. Blaney would make the most sense in lineups that you are fading Larson, since Blaney will start alongside Larson on the front row. Should Blaney grab the early lead, you would have a huge leg up on the field. Keselowski was lucky enough to be chosen to participate in the tire test here last month, which could give the veteran driver the little bit of info that he needs to be successful here today.
There are plenty of chalky options in the place differential department today, and we will start with Martin Truex. The soon to be retired driver will start 31st, and is a very strong play on this slate. He is in a strong Toyota and is one of the best short track drivers in the series. Alex Bowman will also start way back in 33rd, and appears to be very strong as well. He had the best 20 lap average in practice and ranked first in the tire fall-off department. These two guys are locks in cash games, and they should be considered in your GPP lineups as well. They will be highly owned, so if using both, make sure to differentiate yourself elsewhere in your lineup. Remember, we could see some tire issues throughout this race, so a fade of anyone on this slate is viable.
Ty Gibbs will roll off 27th and showed great speed in practice, just like the rest of his teammates. Gibbs is a strong play, but he did mention they have some potential tire issues they need to work on. This normally wouldn’t be an issue, but at a track where we are already concerned about potential tire issues, this does worry us a tad. He is likely going to be chalky, so pivoting in GPPs is something you can consider.
Cheaper PD options this week include Austin Dillon and Ricky Stenhouse. Both of these guys had some decent lap times in practice, and will start in the very back. Stenhouse grades out slightly better on paper for us this week, but not enough to warrant a huge ownership difference. We expect Stenhouse to carry more ownership, so that makes us inclined to go with Dillon in tournaments.
Now that the obvious options are mentioned, we have a few guys we are eyeing in GPPs to hopefully lead us to takedowns. Bubba Wallace is arguably our favorite play in GPPs this week. Wallace is often the forgotten member of the Toyota camp, and he is historically strong on short tracks. He is not going to garner much ownership and we believe he is a sneaky great play. Next, we have our eyes on the SHR duo of Noah Gragson and Chase Briscoe. Gragson posted some of the fastest laps in practice, but unfortunately got loose in turn 4 of his qualifying lap, leaving him starting 23rd. Briscoe on the other hand, is very strong on short flat tracks, including a win at Phoenix, which is a comparable track to Iowa. Briscoe is a legit dark horse candidate to win this race, making him interesting in GPPs at minimal ownership.