This bet is +220 on FanDuel and we like it down to +170. Porzingis is “available under very specific circumstances” which I interpret to mean “the guy is 7’3” so if there’s a last second inbounds play we’ll put him on the ball.” I don’t think he can actually play. The Mavs played a 1-man zone last game with the big roaming in the paint and the other 4 guys closing out aggressively on shooters. This solved the blow-by issue because now there’s a shot blocker waiting for the driver. This forces Boston to pass back out most of the time, where the other 4 defenders are ready to contest jumpers. Boston will surely be more prepared to face this defensive style, but they looked frenetic in Game 4 and made a lot of mistakes that I don’t think they can easily solve for. I think Porzingis not playing has become a huge advantage for Dallas on both ends now that they’ve figured out this defense and they can attack the rim on offense. Without a serious shot blocking threat they were elite in the paint, and they secured a boatload of offensive rebounding as Boston is now undersized in this matchup. I don’t think Dallas should be such a big underdog and I love taking them at +200 or more.
