You can find this bet on Draftkings for +105 and we like it down to -125.
The premise of this bet is that Burnes has an elite matchup. After holding the torpedo Yankees to only 2 runs, we expect him to flash dominance with the step down in competition against the Nationals. We love the X stats he brings to the table as well, holding LHH to a (.103xISO/.269xwOBA) rate and RHH to a (.166xISO/.297xwOBA) rate. This alone gives us confidence that he can come through for us today and hold the Nats under 2 runs. This lineup just isn’t strong enough to expect Burnes to allow so much damage.