DK Top Plays
QBs: Jefferson, Sanders, Cook, McCall, Daniels, Ogbonna, DeNobile
RBs: Harvey, Hampton, Noel, Carroll, Neal, Curtis, Waters, Sperling, Bernard
WRs: Burden, Concepcion, Hunter, Wester, Hudson, Tucker, Rogers, Sheppard, Joly
FD Top Plays
QBs: Cook, Sanders, Miller, Vasko, Brosmer
RBs: Noel, Hampton, Carroll, Bennett, Lewis, Paul, Stewart
WRs: Burden, Hunter, Wester, Tucker, Sheppard, Nesbit, Wease Jr, Horn Jr.
Kevin James voice; AND GENTLEMEN, START YOUR ENGINES! Five days of uninterrupted college football, and a three day weekend. What more could a person want? We kick off the madness with a solid Thursday slate.
QB
Breaking down the leader of the offenses first, we will start with KJ Jefferson at the University of Central Florida. He comes into this game an absolutely massive favorite over the fighting New Hampshires. Over the course of his career, Jefferson has averaged a minimum of 10 rushing attempts per game in games he has finished. We know that historically, mobile quarterbacks at UCF have flourished. The only real issue with running Jefferson is he is likely to play two full quarters at most. His ceiling is likely 20-25 points in this outing, which is still a great score but in what is sure to be limited time.
2nd on the docket at the QB position, we have none other than Prime Time, Jr. Sheduer Sanders showed the world in 2023 that he is an elite talent at the QB position, when he can actually have enough time to complete a pass. Sheduer averaged 24 fantasy points per game last season and could have seen significantly higher fantasy output if he didn’t lose 15 yards rushing per game on sacks. North Dakota State has produced some solid teams over the last decade, and this game is set with Colorado as a 9.5 point favorite. Sanders is expensive, but unlike Jefferson, we expect a full game out of Sanders. Rushing upside is not as high here, but he did average 10 attempts a game last year. He was just often the unfortunate victim of opposing defensive lineman. The offseason has been all about bolstering this offensive line and adding weapons for the 2024 season though, making it a high possibility that Sanders shows the world a whole new ceiling this year.
Brady Cook of the Missouri Tigers is our next contestant. A preseason #11, taking on Murray State, without Ja Morant. Mizzou is a 46 point favorite here and much like KJ Jefferson, we don’t expect a full game out of Cook. Brady Cook showcased both accuracy and mobility in the 2023 season, and if it was a slightly closer matchup, we would be so much higher on him.
Grayson McCall, a quarterback that has been playing college football as long as Jmac has been alive, finds himself deep in the Wolfpack that is NC State. A 32.5 point favorite over Western Carolina. The total is set at 61 and we don’t love McCall in this spot for many of the same reasons as Cook and Jefferson, except he doesn’t have the rushing upside as the other two. He is mentioned, because of his current projection as the 4th highest scoring QB on the slate. Although NC State scores in bunches, we think it is more likely that work is done through the ground game as historically it has been. His price of $7,100 will without question drive up ownership as well, but we think there are better options here.
Jaylon Daniels finds himself playing Lindenwood highschool, as the Jayhawks are a 45.5 point favorite on this slate. As cautious as Kansas was with Jaylon last year, we would be very shocked to see him play into the second half if they are cruising like we expect. I am certain I sound like a broken record here, but there’s again better options on the slate.
A fantasy gold mine comes to us in the form of Buffalo and Lafayette. Who would have thought we would ever write that up. C.J Ogbonna, Buffalo QB, and Dean DeNobile, Lafayette QB, are both priced at sub $6,000 and both have rushing upside out the wazoo. This is downright silly in what projects to be only a 3.5 point game. What has DraftKings done? If we were to have a lean, it is actually Dean DeNobile of the two. He held a 20 to 5 touchdown to interception ratio in 2023 and is entering another season as the starter, whereas CJ Ogbonna has only recently won the starting job in Buffalo and will likely be the benefactor of multiple vulture jobs by the Buffalo running backs, as is tradition in the MAC. DeNobile will have lower ownership here as Ogbonna projects slightly higher and who will willingly shove a QB from Lafayette into their lineup? Only psychos like us, that’s who.
RB
The Running back position is a little more difficult as it always is on the opening weekend of College ball. Position battles are not always won in camp and sometimes it takes some game action to decide those things. We will walk you through our perspective on it.
RJ Harvey was an absolute stud last year, averaging 17 carries a game and totaling 18 rushing touchdowns on the back of a 1416 yard season. He is an easy place to start your lineups as we would expect an early rushing touchdown out of him and likely the 100 yard bonus in the first half. As is with Jefferson, he will likely not see the field late, but he is completely capable of the damage early and often.
Omarion Hampton is another absolute dog. 253 carries and 1500 yards with 16 rushing touchdowns. He is an absolute unit of a man. This game is expected to be considerably closer than Harvey’s, which makes us lean harder on Hampton due what is expected to be a full game and hopefully, 20+ carries as he saw that many times in 2023. This is the running back we recommend you start with in all formats on this slate, and his ownership might not be too bad on DK so he’s really an awesome GPP play.
Nate Noel and Marcus Carroll are both options out of the Missouri backfield. They are listed as co-starters and we would expect both to see somewhere in the ballpark of 10-15 carries a piece. As mentioned above, it seems as though neither have edged the other out in the battle for the top spot, and Missouri may not wish to find another Cody Schrader, they could be content with having a 1A and 1B. Regardless of what they decide internally, this is a fine spot to roll out either one because of the presumed plethora of points available to them on this slate. Noel is cheaper than Caroll, so if deciding between the two that may be a good way to lean.
Devin Neal gets a quick blurb as one of the most exciting running backs in football, but his leash will probably be a short one while playing Lindon B Johnson’s football team. He could score 20 points in the first quarter so he’s worth a stab in large field tournaments but outside of that, not interested too much here.
Jordan Waters is a Duke transfer into NC State and should be in line for a solid outing. He saw 12 touchdowns a year ago and 819 yards playing for a miserable Duke team. He now plays for what is known as a fun ground and pound style offense at NC State. He comes in at only $5,200 on this slate and is an easy plug and play value saver.
Lamar Sperling COULD be the Buffalo Running back to roster on this thursday slate. The frustrating thing about MACtion is there is very little reporting on the athletes. However, Sperling recently won Mr Ohio in high school and finds himself at Buffalo. So, the upside in what is always a run heavy offense is certainly there. He is also $3,400. So, the only way we lose here is if he legitimately just doesn’t see the field. Which we will say is possible due to the lack of reporting previously stated. If he sees 10 carries at $3,400 we are probably very happy with that output.
Quickly going to mention Micah Bernard. There are a lot of rumors about a full blown committee in Utah, which puts a heavy damper on what would have been an exciting play for the UTES. At $5,800 you can certainly roll the dice on him but with better options listed above, its difficult to chase the uncertainty.
WR
Luther Burden is without question the alpha receiver on this slate. 85 receptions for 1200 yards and 9 touchdowns before injury in 2023. He will see a busy first few drives and then likely take a back seat to the second stringers, so don’t force him but he could break the slate in limited action with his massive target share in this Missouri offense.
Kevin Concepcion had a massive year as the top receiver at NC State last season. He gets, presumably, a QB upgrade in McCall and will look to build on his 839 yard 11 touchdown season from a year ago. His price is much more appealing at $7,700 than Burden’s 9k, so if choosing between the two we would lean KC due to their upside being very similar and the salary savings of KC.
We now enter the mini Colorado article featuring three Colorado receivers. Travis Hunter, Will Sheppard and LaJohntay Wester. Travis Hunter is presumably the “alpha” in this offense. He is $9,200 and will have to do a lot to pay off that price tag. This game is one of the only projected close games on the slate, and salary savings everywhere, so we would expect Hunter to be a popular pick here. Wester is who we would expect to slot into the WR2 role. Wester had some absolutely nuclear games last season, with one outing totaling 11 receptions for 200+ yards and 3 touchdowns. He clearly has some good rapport built with Sheduer Sanders and is priced at only $6k, much more affordable than Hunter. Then there is everyone’s favorite Vanderbilt boy that made his way to Coach Prime’s household. We honestly do not know what to expect here. Sheppard showed some upside in a Vanderbilt offense that was very bottom of the barrel, sorry Vandy. Prior to injury, Shepp had 47 catches for 684 yards and 8 touchdowns. We would throw a dart at him in tournaments only. This Colorado offense has been known to spread the ball out, and should be very exciting to watch.
Kobe Hudson is going to get the Devin Neal treatment in this portion of the article. He is a big play threat any time he is on the field but very unlikely to see more than half of the game. 900 yards, 8 touchdowns and 44 receptions is what awaits KJ Jefferson as his new top target at UCF. A fine play but hard to get excited about with the expected short leash.
Jameson Tucker is the expected Coastal Carolina receiver to consider. He saw only 20 catches for 423 yards and 3 scores in 2023 but looks to garner a larger role in 2024. He currently projects as the 5th highest scoring receiver on the slate, and at $5,000, he may be a welcome salary saver.
Noah Rogers has been gaining steam coming out of camp as one of the top receivers for the Wolfpack. He is priced at only $4,200 and could be a sneaky receiver play on this slate. He redshirted in 2023 and the coach speak is that he has a great fit in their offense and should be heavily involved heading into 2024.
Justin Joly will round out the receiver grouping, and his pricing is a bit confusing. Perhaps the algorithm simply missed it as it often does in college football, but he had some great games in 2023 and has transferred into NC State expecting to be battling for the WR2/WR3 behind Concepcion. He saw an average of 6 catches a game last season, gathering 56 receptions and 562 yards before a season ending injury set him back. He is a great punt at $3,700 but we wouldn’t consider him anywhere but in tournaments as we don’t fully know what his usage may be yet.
Conclusion:
Wrapping it all up, the top options in “optimal formats” are Noel, Jefferson, Wester, McCall, and Harvey. These players are projected for heavy ownership. As stated in the writeup, Jefferson and McCall COULD get there, but we believe the massive implied odds on a blowout make them hard to trust. We would much rather run Sanders and a Colorado stack with some of the prime value options listed in the article. Waters, Rogers, Joly, and Sperling are all decent value options on this slate to spend up elsewhere. Our top stand of the slate is jamming Omarion Hampton into most lineups. He projects for considerably less ownership than Harvey and has a clear path to an elite usage rate on this slate whereas Harvey likely doesn’t see the second half. Wester is the projected chalk at WR and is hard to fade. In tournaments we don’t mind dropping from him to Sheppard as he projects for considerably less ownership and is similarly priced. Know that is only a leverage play though, because Wester has a much higher ceiling than Sheppard. A quick note on Luther Burden. He will be difficult to fit into lineups, but he is projecting for heavily deflated ownership and any time you can get a 5 star talent at low ownership, it’s hard to turn down. Enjoy the slate and stay tuned for College Football breakdowns all weekend long!