Pitchers: Eovaldi (Optimal), Civale (Optimal value), Birdsong (GPP Value), King (#1 GPP), Blalock (#2 GPP)
Hitters: TEX (#1 Optimal), COL (#2 Optimal), SD (#1 GPP), DET (#2 GPP)
Bad Chalk: MIA
Weather: All Clear!
Happy Thursday, it is a getaway day for a lot of teams so we have a 6 game early slate to jump right into. There do not seem to be any weather concerns in the early block.
Starting with the bad chalk, the Miami Marlins are looking like one of the highest owned stacks on the slate, which makes sense given the size of the slate and that they are playing in Coors. As of right now, they seem to be taking on more ownership then the Rockies despite having a tougher matchup. They will be facing Rockies’ right hander Bradley Blalock. Blalock has been solid for the Rockies since coming up. He has made 3 starts and has pitched into the 6th inning in all 3, limiting opponents to 3 earned runs or less in all 3 starts. In his most recent outing, he earned the win against a loaded Yankees lineup throwing 5.1 innings striking out 5 and allowing just 2 earned runs. Blalock does not have crazy K rates getting both sides about 15% of the time, but his X stats are solid and he has held right handed hitters to an xISO of just .113 and LHH to a .163 xISO. The Marlins are not nearly as explosive as the Yankees, so he should be able to neutralize their offense. He can be considered as a GPP option for double leverage.
Your optimal pitching option today is Texas Rangers’ right hander Nathan Eovaldi. Eovaldi has strikeout rates of 23% to LHH and 24% to RHH. He has held RHH to an xISO of .108 and LHH .170. He will face a lowly Chicago White Sox team that will send a number of RHH to the plate. In general, the White Sox strikeout quite a bit and there are not many threats in their lineup to be worried about. Eovaldi will likely be the highest owned arm on the slate, but with a safe floor and high ceiling, he is fine for all formats.
Your next two pitching options will be facing each other as Aaron Civale and the Brewers will take on Hayden Birdsong and the Giants. Both players are priced very similarly and also have similar projections. Civale looks to be projecting for a bit more ownership, so he would be your optimal value pitcher and Birdsong would be the GPP pivot. Civale has been very solid against LHH, striking them out 26% of the time. His X stats are decent as he is holding hitters from both sides of the plate to xISOs under .165. The Giants strikeout quite a bit against RHP and their main threats hit from the right side, which should work to Civale’s favor. Birdsong, on the other hand, has had a solid rookie season and looks to continue that today. He is striking out LHH 30% of the time and RHH 25% of the time. He is elite against LHH holding them to an xISO of just .112. Either of them make for solid value options this afternoon!
Your final GPP pitching option would be a pivot off of Eovaldi at a similar price. That would be San Diego Padres right hander Michael King. King is striking out LHH 24% of the time and RHH 34% of the time. LHH have an xISO of just .134 to RHH .143. King will be facing a St. Louis Cardinals team that has had a rather disappointing season including some offensive woes. King does not grade out nearly as well as Eovaldi in terms of point/$, but on a small slate, he has one of the highest ceilings and is worth a shot in GPPs.
Your optimal hitting stack today is the Texas Rangers as they take on Nick Nastrini and the Chicago White Sox. Nastrini does not have a ton of MLB experience and the experience he does have has not been great. He’s allowing RHH an xISO of .278 and LHH .190. He throws a lot of fastballs but has not had great success with the pitch as both sides are mashing it with xISOs over .300. Seager (.432/.424), Semien (.334 xwOBA), Garcia (.211 xISO), Jung (.255 xISO), and Langford (.181/.337) look to be your top options. They all hit fastballs from RHP well. Heim, Tavares, and any other Rangers that crack the lineup are fine options for your full stack on a small slate. The Rangers will be popular, but for good reason. They also get the benefit of facing the worst bullpen in baseball once Nastrini is lifted.
Your next optimal stack is the Colorado Rockies playing in Coors field. Like mentioned above, they seem to be projecting for less ownership than their opponent the Miami Marlins. They will be facing Valente Bellozo who on the surface looks like he has had some success with a relatively low ERA. This may be why the Rockies are not as popular. That said, it looks like Bellozo has had some luck on his side as his X stats are quite alarming. RHH have an xISO of .255 off him and LHH .231. With LHH in particular there is a huge difference between his xISO and actual ISO and it would suggest he is due to regress. Blackmon, McMahon, Doyle, Tovar, Cave, and Toglia are all in play here. Again, on a smaller slate we are fine with you mixing and matching just about any Rockies to make them fit in your lineup.
Your top GPP stack today is the San Diego Padres who have been absolutely on fire as of late. They will face Sonny Gray who has some name value that is likely keeping the Padres ownership down. This creates a great opportunity for us in GPPs. Across the last 30 days, Gray is allowing LHH an xISO of .282. Cronenworth, Arraez, Profar, Merrill, and Peralta will all hit from the left side and look to be in a great spot. Machado and Bogaerts are solid hitters as well and need to be mentioned when considering a Padres stack.
Finally we have the Detroit Tigers who look to be a top value stack on the slate. The ownership may creep up a bit given it is only a 6 game slate, but they project well and have a solid matchup. They will be facing Los Angeles Angels right hander Jack Kochanowicz. He has allowed LHH an xwOBA of .384 and an xISO of .167. RHH seem to have a bit more success in the power department as they have an xISO of .206 and xwOBA of .344. We really like the Tigers LHH today as they have had a lot of success against RHP. In addition, the Angels 2 left handed relievers both threw yesterday meaning they are unlikely to pitch again today which benefits the LHH as well. Greene, Keith, Carpenter, Jung, Meadows, Sweeney would be the LHH to target. Vierling and Torkelson are the RHH to consider, especially Tork who has shown some pop since being recalled.