Update: Jacob Zeno is out for UAB. Make sure to remove him from lineups.
Update: Zac Larrier is starting so Jensen Jones is no longer an option. We believe Emmanuel Michel is now the only real viable play from this game.
Update: Mike Wright is starting for Mississippi State. He is a solid option for value at the QB position in GPP.
DK Optimal Plays
QBs: Gabriel, Zeno, Rourke
RBs: Irving, Brooks, Brown Jr., Michel
WRs: Armstrong, I. Williams, Blankumsee, A. Thomas
FD Optimal Plays
QBs: Nix, Cook, Jefferson
RBs: Irving, Brooks, Baxter
WRs: Burden, Worthy, Baker, Armstrong
We’re over halfway through the regular season now and we’ve got another great slate on deck!
Starting at QB, Kurtis Rourke is our top option on the slate. He’s got a 3.8 PT/$, and is a fantastic option here. Rourke’s Ohio team has a 34 point implied total, giving Rourke excellent opportunity to produce here. He’s a tremendous option in all lineups as he can get it done through the air and on the ground and he’s severely underpriced.
Next on our list we have Jacob Zeno. Zeno has a PT/$ of 3.3, making him one of the better values on the slate. UAB are 5.5 point underdogs here, giving Zeno excellent game script in the air. It’s also worth noting that Zeno is a solid runner, picking up 246-4 on the ground this season. We love Zeno in any contest this weekend.
Dillon Gabriel is another QB we like a lot this Saturday. Gabriel is projected to be among the top scoring QBs, and his Sooners are implied to score 42 points. He’s got the volume to crush this Saturday. Gabriel is rock solid in any format if you have the salary to pay up. He’s currently the highest projecting player on the slate for us.
A GPP pivot off Gabriel that we do like this weekend is Bo Nix. Few people will be on him this weekend with the value we have, but he’s projected to be one of the highest scoring QBs on the slate. Nix hasn’t shown his ceiling yet this season, but he hit 50 DK points three times in 2022. This is a riskier option given the value options for QB on DK, but the upside is excellent in large field GPP. You’re paying a little more than Gabriel for a little less in terms of projected points, but that should ensure that you get much lower ownership.
A bit cheaper for GPP we have Jensen Jones. Jones is expected to take over for Zac Larrier in the Air Force offense. With Jones in, the Air Force are still projected to score 25 points so it seems Vegas doesn’t expect too much of a production slip. Jones is only 5.4k, and we like him as an option in large field GPPs.
Another guy we love the outlook of in GPPs is Quinn Ewers. Texas is implied to score the most points on the slate, leaving huge opportunity for Ewers. Ewers is projected to score among the top five QBs Saturday, so he’s definitely got potential. Make note: Ewers is here for stacking. We don’t love him naked.
Because of the value we have under center, our favorite RBs come at a bit more of an expensive price point this weekend. We’ll start (yet again) with Bucky Irving. He’s projected at the top of the RB food chain yet again, and for good reason. Irving saw 22 carries and 7 targets last weekend. This is a monster workload for Irving — especially with his Oregon Ducks implied to score 39 points on Saturday. Irving is a great play in all formats.
Jonathan Brooks is the second RB to discuss here. He’s projected right up near Irving among RBs. Brooks has 18+ carries in every game since week 3, proving himself as the Longhorns bellcow. Texas is implied to score the most points on the slate Saturday, paving the way for Brooks to have excellent opportunity to produce. We love him in all lineups on Saturday.
Emmanuel Michel is an excellent option at RB this weekend as well. He is projected to score among the top RBs on the slate, yet is priced at only 5.8k. Michel has averaged 18 carries per game this season. Air Force lost their starting QB (and strong ball carrier) Zac Larrier last weekend. All signs point to Michel being asked to pick up some of that lost production. We love Michel here in all formats.
Jermaine Brown Jr. is another fantastic option here. He’s nearly on the same level with Brooks/Irving PT/$ wise, but with UAB being underdogs, we like him a bit less than those two. That being said, while Brown is the leading rusher for UAB, he’s also the third most targeted Blazer. We love Brown’s upside in all formats, but tend to lean his way in GPPs in case the script reduces his workload or UAB struggles to score in general. We would prioritize Irving and Brooks in cash lineups.
For a bit more value in GPP, we like CJ Baxter. You can even use him with Brooks, as we love the potential of the Texas ground game here. Baxter has gotten 6+ carries since week 4. With Texas favored by 23 here, he could see some increased opportunity and makes for excellent GPP value. We’ve heard rumors that he may get worked in more and if he were to get 15+ touches he would probably smash at his price point.
There is a lot of appeal to Jalen Buckley this weekend for RB value. He’s been working in a high-usage role for Western Michigan. He’s gotten 27 carries and eight targets in his past two games. Buckley has a PT/$ of 3.1, and is a rock solid option at value RB in GPP. He shouldn’t carry much ownership and has a high ceiling.
At WR, Demeer Blankumsee clocks in as one of our favorites. He’s the top PT/$ at the WR position, and oozes upside in his role. He has 9+ targets in each of his past three games, with a 10.4 aDoT on the season. He can be stacked with QB Seth Henigan in GPPs, but he’s best used as a one-off. Blankumsee is an excellent play in all formats on Saturday.
Andrew Armstrong is another option we like at the WR position. He’s projected as one of the top two in WR scoring, but is a reasonable 6k. Mississippi State is in the bottom 6 per PFF in pass rush, giving Arkansas WRs some extra time to get open. This is great for Armstrong, who leads the Razorbacks in targets — and owns a nice 11.6 aDoT. We like Armstrong by himself in any format, or stacked with his QB KJ Jefferson for extra upside in GPPs. Armstrong is a great option at WR this weekend in all lineups.
Isaiah Williams is back among our favorite WRs again this week. He’s still priced under 6k, despite being one of the biggest target hogs in CFB. Williams is 34 targets clear of the second leading target on Illinois, and has nearly double the yards. We believe Williams can be played in all formats on Saturday.
We have value in Amare Thomas here. He has seen 10+ targets in three games, and is the top option on UAB. His volume games have all come in trailing game scripts, which we have projected this Saturday. We love Thomas an a cheaper WR option in all formats, and he stacks nicely with Zeno.
For GPPs only, we have a few more options to touch on. Nic Anderson is poised to step into an increased role with Andrel Anthony out for OU. He has huge upside given his route tree, and stacks well with Gabriel. His floor is a bit unknown so he’s not a cash play, but the ceiling is exciting for GPPs.
We’d be remiss to not mention Troy Franklin here. He’s projected multiple points above the rest of the field at the WR position. His upside is tremendous, and Oregon is implied to score 39 points. Franklin is an excellent spend up option at WR in GPP. You can use him alongside Irving, or use a Nix-Franklin stack and fade Irving for leverage in GPPs.
Roc Taylor is the last option we want to mention. He is a great play in a full-on Memphis-UAB stack for GPP. You could use Taylor and fade Blankumsee in GPP to gain direct leverage while keeping the Memphis exposure.
We also want to circle back to the idea of a full on Texas stack. The projections lay out some excellent passing stacks for them, and we don’t mind having 3-4 pieces of the Longhorns in GPP — yes that includes a lineup with Brooks AND Baxter
A strategy note this weekend: with the WR position not being as clear cut, we love using stacks — especially in GPP — to maximize potential. We also believe this week is more tailored to using three RBs due to the excellent selection of RB options we have.
FanDuel:
On Fanduel Bo Nix is among our top QB plays. He has a PT/$ of 2.5, and is projected to score near the top of the QBs. He is more affordable here on FD being priced $900 below Dillon Gabriel and being projected nearly the same amount of points. Nix is an excellent option this Saturday.
Brady Cook is another guy we like at the QB position. He’s right up at the top in both raw points and PT/$ among QB. He’s a dual-threat in a great spot this Saturday. He stacks well, and we like him in any format Saturday.
KJ Jefferson is high on our list here as well. He is priced too low for his production, especially with Arkansas projected to score 28 points. Jefferson is a dual-threat option, and has a great matchup here with the porous Mississippi State secondary. We love Jefferson at QB this Saturday.
For GPPs, we’re high on Dillon Gabriel here. As stated above, he’s projected near Nix in points, but is much higher priced. Opposite of DK, this is an easy leverage spot to use Gabriel over Nix in GPP. He restricts the lineup more with his price, but almost certainly will have lower ownership with a similar ceiling.
John Rhys Plumlee is another GPP option for us. He’s healthy now (supposedly), and has one of the highest upsides on the slate. Plumlee is one of the best rushing QBs in CFB, and has a great game script here. We love Plumlee as a value upside in GPPs.
Much like DK, Bucky Irving is among our favorite RBs on this slate. He’s projected among the top on the slate in PT/$, and has a fantastic opportunity here. Irving is one of our top RB options in all formats.
Another repeat offender, Jonathan Brooks is a great option. The details are above in the DraftKings section. Long story short, we love Brooks and Texas’ offense this Saturday.
We have sensational value in CJ Baxter. He is 5.4k, good for a 2.4 PT/$ — which is tops among RBs. To quote from the DK portion: Baxter has gotten 6+ carries since week 4. With Texas favored by 23 here, he could see some increased opportunity this Saturday. He’s an excellent value option at the RB position.
Ollie Gordon grades out well for us this weekend. He has huge potential, and could fly under the radar with Brooks and Irving dominating ownership. Gordon is a usage hog right now, and he could be a nice leverage play in GPPs at RB.
Looking at WR we believe Luther Burden is a fantastic option once again. Burden is the top PT/$ play at the WR position, and for good reason. The sophomore has 10+ targets in all but two games this season, amassing 805-5 in 7 games. He’s one of our favorite options at WR this Saturday in all formats.
Xavier Worthy is another great option at WR. He’s only 8k, and is projected to score among the top five WR in raw points. He’s the top option on a Texas team that has a 42 point implied total. We love Worthy on Saturday.
Just like DraftKings, Andrew Armstrong grades out well. We won’t reiterate the reasons listed in the DK section, but Armstrong is one of the best PT/$ plays on the slate, and we love his upside here. He can be used by himself, or stacked with Jefferson in all formats.
Javon Baker offers us excellent value at WR this weekend. He has an excellent PT/$, and is priced at just 5.8k! Baker has seen 7-8 targets in the past two games, solidifying his role within the offense. Baker is an excellent value option in all lineups and can be paired with Plumlee for max upside.
In terms of GPP only plays, we think there is awesome value in Jayden Gibson. All signs point to him having an increased role with Andrel Anthony hurt. Now, Gibson’s role won’t be elite here, but should involve a healthy uptick in action for him. Gibson has a 21.7 aDoT on the season, so it wouldn’t take much for him to smash his price tag. We believe Gibson can be used in GPP formats Saturday as a value to allow spending for studs.
Staying on Oklahoma, we like Nic Anderson’s upside in GPPs. Anderson seems poised to get a boost, but unlike Gibson he already has a role so we’re fine paying a bit more for his upside.
In addition to Anderson, we like Troy Franklin in GPPs. He’s near Burden’s price, and projected similarly as well. With ownership on Burden — likely due to him being 400 cheaper and projected slightly better — Franklin becomes excellent leverage. Most people that use Franklin will also use Nix, so we like the unique strategy of playing Franklin with Irving and using lower owned QBs.
Conclusion: At QB on DraftKings, we love using some combination of Dillon Gabriel, Jacob Zeno, or Kurtis Rourke. Gabriel is our top stud QB this slate, while Zeno and Rourke offer excellent PT/$ value. At RB, Bucky Irving, Jonathan Brooks, and Jerome Brown or Emmanuel Michel make up our top RB selections. Irving and Brooks are a cut above, and they are projected multiple points above the next closest RB on the slate. Michel is a fantastic value, and makes for a great option to save salary. At WR, we believe Andrew Armstrong, Isaiah Williams, Demeer Blankumsee, and Amare Thomas are the building blocks. These WR offer stupendous PT/$ value, giving you excellent options without breaking the bank.
On FanDuel, we like using some combo of Bo Nix, Brady Cook, and KJ Jefferson at QB. Nix has excellent upside, while the other two offer great value. Much like Fanduel, Bucky Irving and Jonathan Brooks are a cut above projections wise. We also like CJ Baxter as he projects very well as an awesome value. We like Luther Burden, Xavier Worthy, Andrew Armstrong and Javon Baker as your optimal WRs. Burden is one of the alpha WRs in CFB, and his projections show why he’s our top dog. Worthy, Armstrong, and Baker offer superb value with upside on this slate — all three are within the top 10 PT/$ plays at the WR position based on our projections!
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