Pitching: Verlander (optimal), Montgomery (optimal)
Hitting: PHI (optimal), ARI (#1 GPP), HOU/TEX mini-stacks (#2 GPP)
Bad Chalk: Sanchez (chalky “pivot” because he’s the only pivot option)
After a rousing day of baseball yesterday, both series head back out there for immensely pivotal games tonight. The Astros leveled their series with the Rangers at two games apiece and now both teams will be looking for the huge 3-2 series lead. Meanwhile the Diamondbacks are looking to follow in the Astros footsteps and level their series at 2-2. Depending on how these series go, this could be our last two game slate of the season 😢 so make sure you enjoy it!
The pitching for this slate seems straightforward at first glance. We will start with the NLCS game as the pitching selections for it pave a very clear path to why this slate will be the way it is. The Diamondbacks have elected to go with a full-on bullpen game in what easily is their most important game of the season thus far. Joe Mantiply will be the first man on the mound for them thanks to the presence of Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber at the top of the order. The issue here is that unlike yesterday, playing a relief pitcher on this slate isn’t viable thanks to the presence of starters that have the potential to work deeper into the game on the AL side. Because of that, we can essentially rule out Mantiply and company here from the DBacks.
The other half of this game will see the Phillies send a surprise starter to the mound in Cristopher Sanchez. Everybody expected it to be Taijuan Walker, but they went Sanchez’s way. Sanchez absolutely dominated lefties this season with a .044 xISO/.192 xwOBA against them. Unfortunately, he will only see one of them in all likelihood today and his name is Corbin Carroll. Righties had a ton of success off his sinker with a .238 xISO/.407 xwOBA off the pitch. Outside of the massive issue with his splits in this spot, there is a ton of concern about his length in this game. He did not pitch in the first two rounds of the playoffs which means he has now gone three weeks without an appearance and he has not started a game in a month. I would not expect him to work more than four or five innings MAX in this spot and it very easily could be fewer than that with both Walker and Lorenzen looming in the pen. If he was projected to be extremely low owned in this spot, I may be more inclined to take a shot on him. However, as the only viable pivot off of the ALCS pitchers, he is projected to see nearly 50% ownership at the time of this writing which makes it much harder to feel great about playing him. The Diamondbacks have the same implied total as both the Rangers and Astros, which very well may surprise people on this slate, but we think that has more to do with the Phillies’ strong bullpen. My true guess for Sanchez innings pitched tonight is about three. That makes him an easy fade as the chalky pivot option.
Because of the pitching issues in this NLCS game, the two AL pitchers are going to be overwhelmingly popular. However, on this slate, the clear move is to play both of them and forget about it. In all likelihood, anybody that does not will simply be donating to the rake, which gives you an edge in your contests to just play them both because a lot of people hate using opposing starters. Justin Verlander will be on the mound for Houston. He is projected as the higher owned of these two and also has the clearest path to some trouble from an advanced stat perspective. Righties have a .232 xISO off his heater this season which could pose some trouble for him in this spot against a powerful Texas squad. After he lost game 1 of the ALCS by allowing two runs on six hits over 6.2 innings, he will be back out there today. However, even in that performance, he put up 16.2 fantasy points which is simply a total that will be unmatched in the other game. It makes fading him quite difficult, but if you did want to play Sanchez, Verlander is the guy we would jump off of. But again, our recommendation is to use both AL pitchers.
Jordan Montgomery will be starting for the Rangers and absolutely decimated the Astros in Game 1 of this series. Lefties have a puny .077 xISO/.257 xwOBA off him this season while righties are better (but not great) with a .165/.318 line overall. The Astros are projected to start seven righties in this spot so there is a very thin path to success. However, like Verlander, his floor here in this spot is simply too high compared to what the options in the other game look like. We would play him and move on.
Turning to the bats here, Philadelphia looks to be the optimal stack against Arizona’s bullpen game. They have the highest team total on the slate, but it is only by roughly half a run at 4.98. All three other teams are sitting right at 4.50 which is not much of a difference. The challenge here is that with the bullpen game, it will be very, very hard to pin down which hitter(s) from the Phillies are going to be the ones to do the damage. Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, and Alec Bohm will be the three highest owned options. Once again, Castellanos is projected for negligible ownership which makes him an elite GPP play on this slate. The final option to consider is Brandon Marsh who is projected as one of the better point per dollar options in this lineup. Again, without knowing who each of these hitters is going to be facing, it is quite hard to suggest who is truly the best. With them all being quite highly owned other than Castellanos, this is a spot where we may suggest looking elsewhere in GPPs.
So if not the Phillies, then who? For most people that want to get “contrarian” in this spot, they will turn their attention to the Diamondbacks who are facing off with a shaky pitcher in Cristopher Sanchez. They have a ton of great options that have struggled mightily in this series. At some point, you have to think they will play in line with the story their season-long advanced stats are telling us and there is no better time than the present! Our favorite options here include Christian Walker (.437 xISO/.452 xwOBA), Evan Longoria (.264/.418), Emmanuel Rivera (.213/.486), Ketel Marte (.433 xwOBA), and Tommy Pham (.388 xwOBA). Walker and Marte in particular look like they will be highly owned while Longoria and Rivera are a superb stack at the bottom of the Dbacks order. Rivera grades out as one of the better point per dollar options n the slate and is a superb GPP option.
The real contrarian way to play this slate though is to pick a few pieces from the NLCS game and then build around a chunk of guys from the ALCS game facing your pitchers. With how well the two have been throwing the ball of late, the most likely way they are damaged is via the long ball which makes playing one or two guys from each team totally viable. As mentioned previously, Verlander has been susceptible to righties that can hit the fastball. If targeting Rangers, the top options would be Marcus Semien (.250/.392), Josh Jung (.281/.368), Mitch Garver (.460/.510), or Adolis Garcia (.276 xISO). You obviously should not play all of them against Verlander but this does go to show the challenge inherent in the matchup he will have. Jung looks like an exceptional GPP option as Bohm, Bregman, Longoria, and Rivera all project for more ownership than he does at the 3B position. Garver will be chalky as the highest projected catcher on the slate. As such, we would probably recommend playing Jung and one of Semien/Garcia in this spot and hope you run into the long ball. On the other side, we would target Montgomery with a righty or two from Houston as well. As a heavy sinkerballer, the best options to target the pitch are Chas McCormick (.438/.554) and Martin Maldonado (.487/.409). You also can mix in Maurico Dubon (.229 xISO) or Jose Abreu (.183/.393). Maldonado is our favorite GPP catcher on the slate as he is projected for the lowest ownership of any offensive player. Dubon is clearly the best point per dollar option on the slate so he is quite viable as well.
Conclusion: This slate is quite simple on the mound. Play Justin Verlander and Jordan Montgomery and don’t think twice. Cristopher Sanchez is getting steam as the trendy pivot off both of them and we do not think it is likely he goes more than three frames here. Anybody that does not play the ALCS pitchers will simply be donating money. In terms of hitters, the Phillies will be very popular against the Arizona bullpen. However, it is extremely tough to be able to truthfully say which of their nine hitters will be the ones to produce in this game. With an implied total of just 0.5 runs more than the other three teams, we would look elsewhere in GPP formats. The Diamondbacks will be the more popular pivot against Sanchez and they have a number of great options. Our favorites are Walker, Longoria, and Rivera. Lastly, we would absolutely recommend playing some bats from the ALCS game that will be very underowned because everybody is playing the pitchers from that game. From the Rangers, we love Jung and one of Semien or Garcia while we like McCormick, Maldonado, and Dubon from Houston. Best of luck!