This bet is -102 on FanDuel. At that price we like taking the points, but if you’d rather take the ML we like that too and it’s +125 on BetMGM. This game is interesting because over 90% of the money is on ARST both on the spread and the ML, and yet the odds have barely changed. This is relevant because it suggests that Vegas is comfortable having heavy exposure on our side. I don’t blame them because I actually think Northern Illinois should be the favorite here. They have the biggest matchup advantage in the game in their run game. There’s some concern that their inside run game will be worse with their starting center transferring, but they have a month to prepare for that loss and I think the key for them will be their outside zone runs anyway. The main reason I don’t think ARST deserves to be favored is that there’s too much hype around their freshman QB who has made a habit of dicing up terrible defenses. He makes the throws he needs to make, and credit to him for that, but Northern Illinois will be one of the best coverage units he’s faced. Most of his production has come from explosive plays against bad coverage units. To me, his stats are being overvalued and the top-20 back 7 of NIU will cause problems for him. I expect a lot of quick drives and punts for ARST, while I expect NIU to drive the ball methodically downfield and score points. This spread feels wrong to me and I’d be taking NIU all the way to even.
