This bet is -113 on FanDuel and we like it down to +5.5. This isn’t like USF last night where the underdog is clearly the better team, but it’s a tossup game that to me shouldn’t have a spread of more than a couple points. These teams matchup extremely similarly and I think if you watch the game you’ll have no idea which team was favored by almost a full touchdown. The edge for both teams will be on the ground. It’s the 22nd ranked team vs the 20th ranked team in rushing success rate. And defensively they are ranked 123rd and 124th in rushing success rate allowed. So it’s two good rushing offenses vs two bad rushing defenses. UCF has an advantage in the air but it’s not enormous, and GT has an advantage in tackling, special teams, and manages the clock better towards the end of halves. It’s hard to say exactly who has the overall advantage, to the point where if the game had no spread I wouldn’t be betting it. So getting 6.5 points on GT’s side, as well as +200 on the ML (which I like for a half unit as well), is a very good play.
