DK Top Plays
QBs: Drones, Howard, Holstein, Bowman, Ewers, Raiola, Greene, Gronkowski, Ward,
RBs: Allen, Blue, Gordon, Reid, Tuten, Wisner, Johnson Jr, Hemby, Mafa, Frazier
WRs: Presely, Restrepo, Gadsden, Wilson, Owens, Horton, Felton, Smith, Pena, Wilde
FD Top Plays
QBs: Milroe, Gabriel, Drones, Howard, Smith, Beck, Shager, Ward, Ewers, Railoa
RBs: Harden, Blue, Edwards, Tuten, Wisner, Hemby, James, Henderson, Whittington, Singleton, Johnson, Robinson
WRs: Ashlock, Wilson, Restrepo, Johnson, Egbuka, Smith, White, Manjack, Lovett, Moss, Horton, Bell, Perry, George, Holden
The first Saturday Main Slate of the year is finally here with massive prize pools and exciting games right from the jump. Thanks for riding with RGP this season, let the good times begin.
QB
Kyron Drones is your optimal lock on this slate on DraftKings and you should consider him on Fanduel as well. He carries the rock more than most running backs on the slate. He saw 20 carries multiple times last year and also has some passing touchdown upside, as quarterback, who would’ve thought. Do not over think this one.
Will Howard rises up the ranks in ownership on both sites and is definitely in consideration as well. We saw how versatile of an athlete he was at Kansas State and now he gets the offensive juggernaut that is the Ohio State Buckeyes at his disposal. On this slate, we feel there are better QB options.
Eli Holstein will see ownership after being announced the starter at $5,400, however he is said to still be splitting snaps so don’t chase this too hard.
Alan Bowman is a 9.5 point favorite over South Dakota State in the cowboys home opener. It is said that his offseason camp was outstanding. Becoming more athletic and comfortable in the offense. It helps that he has a returning, experienced offensive line and the best running back in college football in Ollie Gordon. He also has his full complement of receivers back this season in both Rashod Owens, Brennan Presley and Dezhaun Stribling. Bowman is priced low enough that he could be a sneaky good option in what will likely be a high scoring affair in Stillwater.
Quinn Ewers is the third most expensive QB on the slate. He is a 34.5 favorite over Colorado State and will likely be part of a scoring jamboree. We would like him more if his rushing upside was higher, but he is in play, especially if Colorado State can hang around for any length of time.
Dylan Raiola is one of the most exciting prospects to watch this weekend. He won the job as a freshman and flipped his commitment from Georgia to Nebraska prior to winning the job. He is cheaper than Ewers and has been compared to Patrick Mahomes in the way he is able to rifle the football all over the field, he doesn’t project for a ton of ownership and will likely show the world why he was so heavily recruited coming out of highschool. This is not an all in play by any means, but definitely an excellent tournament play.
Garrett Greene draws a brutal season opener against defensive juggernaut Penn State. He has slate breaking upside with his legs scoring 13 rushing touchdowns and accounting for 750 yards in his first year as a starter and he also threw a 16 to 4 touchdown to interception ratio. The matchup isn’t awesome, but Garrett Greene is. Tournaments only.
Mark Gronowski is the tournament play of the day. We have all seen Oklahoma State give up points to opposing Quarterbacks and it just so happens that Gronowski is actually good. It is a 60 point total and Ok State is only a 10 point favorite. Gronk found the endzone with his legs 8 times in 2023 and threw for 3000 yards and 9 touchdowns with only five interceptions. He is priced at $6,100. If there is to be a big question mark in Stillwater this year it is the secondary of the Cowboys and we would not at all be surprised to see Gronowski take advantage of it. This South Dakota State team is marginally better than some folks may think they are. You do not have to take a receiver stack here but if you wanted too, Griffin Wilde is your guy, a sophomore that is said to have blazing speed.
Cam Ward finds himself on a slate that is stacked with Quarterbacks. His upside in this game against Florida is through the ROOF. In 2023 he threw for 3700 yards and 25 touchdowns while rushing for eight. He isn’t a guy that will tuck and run a lot, but he is dangerous in the red zone with his legs. We saw Tyler Van Dyke throw the ball early and often last season as Miami was constantly trying to push the ball down the field and we think that will be the case here once again. Miami is a 2.5 point favorite and will definitely have the QB battle won over Graham Mertz. His price is elevated and doesn’t project for much ownership in this one making him a solid tournament option if you can find the salary for it. This game should come down to the wire so expect a complete game from Ward.
RB
LeQuint Allen is disrespected with his price. 1000 yard back in 2023 with 244 carries and 10 touchdowns. He will be very chalky against a MAC team that will struggle. Consider him in all formats.
Jaydon Blue is now the alpha in a Texas backfield that lost CJ Baxter to a season ending knee injury. (Sad for our best ball squads and Baxter, hope he recovers quickly), We expect touches early and often for him against Colorado State so don’t over think this one either. He also projects to be chalky.
Ollie Gordon, the best running back in the nation, finds himself in a matchup against an FCS team and is running behind an experienced offensive line in Stillwater on opening weekend. He will see 20+ touches and probably a handful of targets. If you have the available salary he is a spend up option that you will want nearly every time he takes the field as he has a serious 50 point upside.
Desmond Reid has been named the starter for Pitt in their opening game against Kent State and is priced like a backup. The algorithm did us no favors this weekend. 13 touchdowns and 800 yards last season, he will keep that going in a cake matchup against Kent State, and is likely to be chalky at his price.
Bhayshul Tuten has been known to see a ridiculous workload in the Hokies offense. This creates a build path that you really need to think about. If you play Drones, you probably do not want to play Tuten. Because their path to success is the same. Tuten rarely catches passes. However we will flip the script and look at it from the other side. Drones is going to be 40-50% owned probably in most contests. Tuten will be much lower. If you were to ride with Tuten and fade Drones and Tuten finds the end zone twice then you take down all the contests. It is a swap to be made in tournaments to gain leverage on the field, but know we prefer Drones in optimal contests.
Quintrevion Wisner is the projected two back in Texas and could get some valuable reps behind starter Jaydon Blue, especially if the game ends up being a blowout. Blue is the preferred back but we don’t mind Wisner.
Montrell Johnson Jr is slated to start for Florida and have no restrictions headed into the game. He can be active as both a runner and receiver and could be busy against a Miami defense that has historically struggled to stop opposing run games.
Roman Hemby was once Will Bryant’s favorite toy. He is a special talent when it comes to speed and has the upside to blow the slate wide open if they use him effectively. Prior to injury last year he was regularly seeing 12+ touches a game and saw as many as 23. If he gets back to that usage, he has a very high upside against UCONN.
Phil Mafah, a certified DOG. It is unfortunate that he faces the Georgia Bulldogs, but the workload is very likely to be there. He saw an average of 15 carries a game last season and was the preferred option in the red zone with 13 rushing touchdowns. In a game against Notre Dame, he saw 36 carries. Dabo will likely try and coach this game similarly to that and take the air out of the football. This play is more about game theory and expected upside than anything, but it certainly makes sense and at $5,600, we like the lineup fit. Tournaments only here.
WR
Brennan Presely is returning to Stillwater for a 5th season and down the stretch of 2023 averaged 13 catches a game with 16 to end the season in the bowl game. Alan Bowman is clearly very comfortable with him as a safety net. He also returns the kickoffs and punts giving him ample upside at $6,800. A word of caution here, the receivers were banged up last year to end the season and are now all fully healthy. 10 receptions is unlikely but 7-8 is more in the realm of possibility.
Xavier Restrepo was a man on a mission in 2023. He snared 85 balls and had 1092 yards and averaged 20 DK points per game. Cam Ward is an upgrade at QB and will look his way early and often. $6,700 is way too cheap for the potential production and he is hard to fade on this slate.
Oronde Gadsen is priced at $3,500 and is said to be a full go for this game. Prior to injury last season, Gadsen was the top receiving option on this offense. 2022 gives us a better sample size, showing 900 yards on 61 catches and six touchdowns. We believe he will get back to that and at $3,500, he will be no secret on this slate. In optimal lineups you likely need him.
Eugene Wilson slots in as the top receiving option for the Florida Gators in what could be a fun matchup against the Miami Hurricane. He cemented himself as Graham Mertz go to option in the receiving game in 2023 and we expect no difference here. If choosing between Restrepo and Wilson we lean Restrepo, though, just so were clear.
Rashod Owens proved to be one of the best deep ball threats in college football in 2023. He became an elite option for Alan Bowman down the stretch and averaged 15 points per game in 2023. With the return of Dhzaun Stribling, we don’t know if we would chase Owens this weekend, because he is truly boom or bust.
Tory Horton was electric last year as a Colorado State Ram. It is rumored that he turned down massive amounts of NIL money to stay where he is. He saw 96 catches for 1136 yards and 9 touchdowns averaging 95 yards per game. The kid is just dang good. He runs into a Texas secondary that will be a little more difficult than some of the teams he saw a year ago, but the volume will without question be there.
Da’Quan Felton is your optimal stack with Kyron Drones if you are in the market for one. Down the stretch last season, Felton saw a 17 point, 27 point, and 31 point fantasy performance. The hokies open the season against Vanderbilt and if you’re the betting kind, and clearly you are, you can bet that Felton gets loose a few times against that Vandy defense.
Jeremiah Smith a five star receiver out of Ohio State, has found his way into the starting lineup. We have seen Ohio State really mix it up with their receivers over the years. Unless you’re Marvin Harrison Jr, starting doesn’t necessarily mean much. However, the camp speak is that this kid is the real deal, and deserves the spot light. He is priced at $5,400 and will garner ownership as the replacement for MHJ in this offense.
Trebor Pena is an interesting dart throw this weekend. He has been called one of the top skill players in the ACC and is priced at the stone minimum at $3K. He has been noted to be one of the top targets of starting QB Kyle McCord in camp, and again is priced at the stone minimum. This feels like a really easy decision to plug and play and for whatever reason, ownership is not following this as of now. As we get closer to lock, perhaps it will adjust.
Griffin Wilde is the preferred stack with Gronowski. He is expected to be the top receiver in the offense with blazing speed and is priced below $5k.
Conclusion: This slate is HUGE and has a lot of moving parts. Builds can go various ways and here we will try and sum it up as best as we can. In optimal formats, you likely need Drones, Reid, Blue, Allen and Restrepo. Presley has the hardest path of any chalk to succeed due to the multiple mouths to feed in that offense, whereas Restrepo is the clear top option. They project the same. With the value available to you, Ollie Gordon can be played as your Superflex option or can replace one of Reid, Blue, Allen, with Blue being the one we would opt to pivot out, simply because of blowout potential. The rest of your lineup can be built by stacking the Miami Florida game, Okstate SDSU or taking little one offs from the writeups.
FanDuel Notes
If building on FanDuel, there are multiple other games factored into that main slate. Touchdown equity is so much more important due to the scoring being .5 PPR. Your optimal core on FD is similar to DK, in that you need Restrepo, and Drones. However there it deviates. Jalen Milroe is a strong play on FanDuel due to rushing upside. The offseason talk is that he has improved in most aspects of his game. He is the top raw projected points total on the site and needs to be plugged in. On FD Quintrevion Wisner is a strong play due to his price being so heavily deflated. We expect there to be touches scripted for him and at $5,400 he is difficult to fade. The same can be said for Rhamir Johnson at $4,200, who is projected for 10 points at very little ownership. The alpha back on FD is without question TJ Harden. He saw multiple games of 20 carries in 2023 and Hawaii isn’t going to be slowing him down. Eugene Wilson projects as the top owned receiver on FanDuel and it makes sense but we still prefer Restrepo due to the Quarterback upgrade and likely path to success with less resistance.