Top Stacks: UCF, TULSA, WAKE,
Optimal Plays: Plumlee, Harvey
Another week, another excellent CFB slate. Let’s dig in.
Starting at quarterback, we have some incredibly diverse pricing on this slate. UCF QB John Rhys Plumlee is one of the most electric runners in CFB, and gets a great matchup here. If you were with us last year for bowl season, JRP is a name you remember well. UCF returns a few pass-catchers, with Javon Baker clearly atop the pecking order. We love Baker’s upside here, as he showed a tremendous connection with Plumlee last fall. Baker had 100 targets with an aDoT of 13.4. He moved around the formation a bit as well, so his versatility could come into play, especially in the red zone. Kobe Hudson also returns, but he’s an “or” in the depth chart, which means he probably won’t be out there for every snap as he’s splitting that WR role. His 7 TD are fun, but at that price he’s just not on our radar in optimal lineups. At RB, RJ Harvey gets the start and could be huge in a game in which we see UCF projected for nearly 7 scores. At his price, Harvey is a lock for us in optimal lineups. We expect Plumlee to be one of the highest owned QBs, and we wouldn’t fade him in optimals. However, in GPPs you could get unique by not using him. You can use Baker in all formats, but we don’t love the idea of using any other UCF WR without Plumlee. Since Plumlee runs too, if a secondary WR has 100+ yards that probably means Plumlee has 200+ passing, along with 50ish rushing yards. It would be hard to win without him if he does that, unless Harvey steals all the TDs. Harvey is pretty much a lock regardless, but obviously you 100% need him if you fade Plumlee.
There are a few other QBs on our radar tonight, starting with Braylon Braxton of Tulsa. Tulsa aired it out nearly 35 times per game last year, and they brought in a new coach that is no stranger to the pass. Braxton also has a bit more wheels than his predecessor as he ran 55 times for 145 yards and 5 TD last season in limited work. Marquis Shoulders, Devan Williams, and Braylin Presley – listed at RB – are expected to start for them at WR. This is a really cheap stack, and could go a long way tonight.
Mitch Griffis of Wake Forest is a fun one this evening. He can’t really run, but was solid passing in his limited work last year. He gets a cupcake here early, just like he did last year when Hartman was out early on. He tossed for 288-3 against VMI, and gets to take on Elon tonight. He can be paired with Jahmal Banks, Taylor Morin or Ke’Shawn Williams. We don’t love the price points for Morin or Williams, so they’re more tournament options for us. Banks can be used in any lineup, but we like the other Wake Forest WR only in stacks.
Darren Grainger is a lot of fun for watching purposes, as he ran for 734-6 last season. He’s a lock to tuck it 8+ times a game. He funnels targets to his top guy, and we expect that guy to be Robert Lewis. Last year, the top GAST WR had 94 targets (Transferred Jamari Thrash), dwarfing the second place receiver by 48 targets. Lewis is one of our favorite options tonight at WR for all lineups.
At the RB position, the aforementioned Harvey is our top dog, but let’s check into some others. Due to their price, Keshawn King and Sean Tyler aren’t really on our radar. They are too overpriced, and there are multiple guys in the mid-range with much better situations. Among those, Wake RB Justice Ellison and UAB runner Jermaine Brown are firmly in play this evening. Ellison has a solid role in the Wake offense, and with their projected point total he’s a guy we love to use, even with a Wake passing stack. Brown is a true-bellcow, and perhaps the safest RB tonight. UAB runs their starters into the ground – evidenced by DeWayne McBride’s 233 carries in 11 games last season. Brown is a safe bet for 18+ carries, and perhaps a couple targets. He’s right there with Harvey for the title of best optimal RB on the slate. A bit cheaper, Jordan Ford and Marcus Carroll come into play. Both have excellent implied totals, and are the lead RB on their respective teams. We like either RB to be deployed as a value piece this evening. If you want to be a bit different, Ja’Quinden Jackson and Cam Skattebo is an intriguing combo. It seems like most of the field will have one of Harvey/Brown so for large field tournaments, using those two RB could be a nice way to differentiate with a lot of upside.
At WR it can be tough tonight because a lot of these guys stack so well. Our favorite WRs (stacking or not) are Banks, Lewis, and Baker. Luther Burden is a guy who has upside tonight as well. He got carries last year, and was really force fed in the red zone. He’s our favorite tournament play at WR this evening. NC State freshman Kevin Concepcion could be a popular choice at WR for a GPP/punt play. He’s min price and starting this evening in a great matchup. Perhaps the coaching staff schemes some plays to him to get his confidence up early? Another fun thing to consider: ASU football’s alpha WR, Elijhah Badger is out for the first half due to a penalty in their finale last year. With Gio Sanders listed as an “or,” TE Jalin Conyers climbs up our list. He had 5 TD last year, and 46 targets in 12 games. He makes for a nice option here for value, especially in the first half. This could also boost the aforementioned Skattebo, as a freshman QB + a vital WR out could lead to more touches for him.
Conclusion: We like this slate due to the numerous directions one can take their lineup, but we’re confident in our optimal core to perform well. We view Plumlee, Harvey, Brown, Baker, Banks, and Lewis as a foundational core tonight for optimal lineups. However, it’s very tough to afford this full core, so you’ll probably need to pivot off one of Banks or Baker.
Will: I just wanted to add that I’m all in on our top RBs tonight. I’m running 20 lineups and I have roughly:
Harvey 100%
Brown 90%
Carroll 50%
Skattebo 50%
Just wanted to say that so you know you don’t need to pivot off those top RB plays this evening.