Pitchers: Strider (#1 optimal), Garrett (#2 optimal), Avila (#1 GPP), Adon (#2 GPP)
Hitters: MIA (optimal), ATL (#1 GPP), SDP (#2 GPP)
This evening presents a very small MLB slate for us as there are just three games on the docket. The obvious optimal arm on both sites is Spencer Strider. There really isn’t much that needs to be said about him at this point. Lefties have a .105 xISO/.263 xwOBA and a 32% K rate against him while righties have a .095/.219 line and a 31% K rate. He is simply an elite play every time he takes to the mound. With that being said, there are two potential things working against him in this spot. Like usual, he is priced at a prohibitively high price point as you have to use 25% of your cap to get to him on DraftKings. He actually is $500 cheaper on FD, which makes him an even better play there with the higher overall cap. The second issue tonight is his matchup. He has to go against the LA Dodgers, who are always capable of damaging even the best pitchers. The reality here is that he is going to be exceptionally highly owned. His raw point total on a three game slate most likely will be optimal. But in GPPs, you certainly can go hunting for better point per dollar options if you are inclined.
The second optimal arm of the slate is clearly Braxton Garrett. Garrett has been inconsistent, but he has solid X stats over the last thirty days as lefties have a .056 xISO and righties have a .159 xISO against him. He is going up against the Nats for the second straight start in this one, which does hurt him pretty significantly. With K rates of just 18% and 15% to lefties and righties respectively over the last thirty days, the low K rate Nationals squad is a very poor matchup for his strikeout upside. He managed just 8.7 DK points in his last start against them as he racked up just three Ks and gave up three runs on seven hits. He will be pretty highly owned as most people see him as the safe, optimal pairing to Strider here. We would most likely stick with him in cash games but look elsewhere in GPPs as the upside is seriously in question.
Our top GPP arm on the slate is Pedro Avila. He grades out as the best point per dollar option in our projections on both sites tonight. Avila will be going up against the San Francisco Giants. He has been quite solid this season thus far with lefties holding a .036 xISO/.248 xwOBA and righties holding a .151/.335 line. He has a 22% K rate against lefties and a very good 28% K rate against righties. He is projected to see a lineup with five lefties and four righties tonight, which should be a great mixture of K upside combined with safety from damage. In his first start last time out, he was cruising into the fifth inning until some terrible BABIP luck caused him to melt down after the inning started with an infield single and a bunt base hit. He has solid upside here, price considered, and he makes a ton of sense in your GPP lineups.
Joan Adon is a tough nut to crack as he is liable to get blown up every time he takes the mound. However, he also does carry some solid upside if things break his way. He is priced like an absolute scrub at just $5.4k on DK tonight and that could be a mistake in this matchup. Hitters on both sides of the plate hold around a .200 xISO off his heater over the last thirty days, so he is certainly capable of giving up some power. With K rates around 20% to hitters on both sides as well though, he does not have oodles of K upside. However, Adon shredded this same Marlins team in his last start and put up 21.1 DK points. He allowed no runs on just three hits over six frames. He only managed three strikeouts in that outing, which highlights how much downside he would have if they managed to damage him. However, on a three game slate, you could do far worse than plugging him in and hoping for a repeat performance. He will be one of the lowest owned arms on the slate and makes for a decent GPP value option that provides double leverage against the Marlins offense.
Flipping over to the bats, the aforementioned Miami Marlins hitters are projected to be exceptionally chalky in this spot. They matchup quite well and if you do want to play them here, we would stick with the guys who can hit the fastball well as that is the best way to damage Adon by a mile. Our favorite options include Soler (.392/.415), Bell (.246/.432), Burger (.308/.388), De La Cruz (.212/.351), Sanchez (.260/.407), and Fortes (.220 xISO). Interestingly enough, bats like Wendle and Berti are projected to be the highest owned here but they don’t have great numbers, they are just cheap. With the potential this lineup has, we really would stick to the six guys above in filling out your stacks. You could throw in Chisholm as well if you wished as he could steal a bag if he gets on and he always has power upside. This is a tough spot tonight as they do grade out quite well. In optimal lineups, you should stack them and move on. In tournaments, there is merit in hoping for a repeat performance from Adon and looking elsewhere. Regardless of which route you take, we do think it is advisable to go all in on one of them. If you play Marlins bats, they should probably be full stacked. If you fade them, locking in Adon certainly seems like the move, at least on DK where you get two pitchers.
Surprise, surprise, our top GPP stack of the slate is the Atlanta Braves. Atlanta is facing off with Lance Lynn tonight and he has been living on borrowed time since he joined the Dodgers. He finally was hammered by the Red Sox his last time out and tonight should be another demolition derby. Over the last thirty days, righties have a .279 xISO off his heater. He has been quite good against lefties out of nowhere since joining the Dodgers, but overall on the season they have a .309 xISO/.421 xwOBA off his fastball as well. So pretty much everyone is in play for the Braves here. Our top options include Acuna (.280/.441), Ozuna (.378/.448), Olson (.308/.455), Murphy (.371/.444), Riley (.276/.355), Albies (.218/.352), and Arcia (.238/.383). They will carry decent ownership on this slate, but the full stack will most likely be uncommon as it is exceptionally hard to do (if not impossible) while also jamming in Strider. They are a very strong GPP option.
Our final GPP stack of the night is the San Diego Padres. San Diego will face off with Manaea as the long man behind Ryan Walker in this one. Manaea’s fastball has been getting lit up by righties over the last thirty days at a .220 xISO/.374 xwOBA clip. The Padres are projected to start six righties against him, many of which smash the fastball. Bats like Kim (.223/.366), Tatis (.282/.437), Sanchez (.353/.389), and Cooper (.356 xwOBA) look great. The best way to attack here is to potentially mini stack up Kim, Tatis, and Sanchez as they have the best numbers by a wide margin.
Conclusion: Spencer Strider is the clear optimal arm on this small slate. He will be very highly owned but does cost a pretty penny in a tough matchup. Garrett should have a safe matchup against the Nats but his upside is limited. Our top GPP arm is Avila in his matchup with the Giants. Adon is a viable double leverage play in hopes he repeats his last outing against the Marlins. On the offensive side, Miami is in a great spot against Adon, they just will be extremely chalky. You should either full stack them or fade them and play Adon. Atlanta looks exceptional against Lance Lynn and a full stack of them will be very GPP as you would probably not be able to play Strider with them. We also love a mini-stack of the Padres against Manaea in GPPs as well. Best of luck!