Optimal: Keselowski, Bowman, Suarez, Truex, Stenhouse, Haley, Smith, Gragson, Hocevar, Custer, Johnson, Castroneves
GPP: Drivers starting in spots 16-29
NASCAR season is back, and we are excited to provide weekly Cup Series breakdowns to help you build your Sunday lineups! We’ve also got projections for Trucks and Xfinity in addition to the Cup Series. We start out with the biggest race of them all, the Daytona 500. We have our fingers crossed that the weather is nice enough to give us this race on Sunday evening. Let’s take the green flag and dive in!
If you are new to NASCAR DFS, listen up. Daytona (along with Talladega and New-Atlanta), are considered Super-Speedways, or drafting tracks. In these races, anyone is capable of a good finish, and we often see big crashes that knock a lot of drivers out of the race. For this reason, the strategy for these races is to stack the back. For cash and SE contests, we suggest not playing anyone starting in the top 20. As you move into large field MME tournaments, feel free to include 1-2 drivers starting in the 10-19 range, but it is not a must. Every driver has about a 60% chance of finishing the race, so playing guys that start towards the front comes with a huge risk of a negative score in your lineup. Also, do not be afraid to leave salary on the table. More likely than not, the optimal lineup will have an excess of salary leftover.
So who are the top drivers starting in the back? Well, anyone starting in the rear of the field is viable, but the most optimal drivers are Brad Keslowski and Alex Bowman. Both of these drivers will be very highly owned, as they have a great chance to finish near the front, and put up a huge score if they miss the wrecks. While both of these drivers are great plays, and you will probably want at least 1 of them in your lineups, you should be able to get lower ownership on some other optimal guys starting even further back. They have just as good of a chance to finish near the front, even though their names aren’t as big. These guys include Martin Truex, Zane Smith, Justin Haley, Daniel Suarez, Ricky Stenhouse, Noah Gragson, Carson Hocevar, and Cole Custer. Truex is one of my favorite plays. Due to him not being a full-time driver anymore, he should have no interest in being aggressive early in the race attempting to earn stage points, which increases his chances of missing the big wrecks.
The qualifying duels saw multiple crashes, which has resulted in a lot of good drivers starting towards the back. You will want to find a way to get lower ownership in your lineup while still playing guys with huge upside in place differential. Keselowski and Bowman are the most talented drivers starting towards the back, but in reality, every driver has a very similar chance of wrecking out of the race. It really does come down to having good luck on these tracks. For this reason, in GPPs, we recommend using the projections and trying to use the drivers starting in the back with lower projected ownership. For example, if Alex Bowman is projecting for 50% ownership, but Daniel Suarez is projecting for just 25% ownership. I would much rather be overweight on Suarez, and underweight on Bowman. All guys mentioned are phenomenal plays, but we just wanted to emphasize the importance of thinking about ownership in GPPs.
Another way to make your lineups more unique is to include a guy starting inside the top 30 that is not expected to see much ownership. Guys in that range that stand out include Josh Berry, Ryan Preece, Shane Van Gisbergen, and Michael McDowell. All of these guys can be in contention for the win if they avoid the carnage.
Two drivers who are optimal in our opinion are Jimmie Johnson and Helio Castroneves. Despite valid concerns over the two, their current projected ownership is way too low for their starting position. I will admit, Jimmie Jam’s time has passed, and last year was a complete joke of a season, never finishing above 26th. However, most of this was just horrendous luck, and I tend to like the veteran minds in these races, like Johnson. He also falls into the same mold as Truex, where he has no reason to be aggressive early. I like his chances to miss the early crashes. His car is also no slouch, and should have some speed. 4-Time Indy 500 Champion Helio Castroneves will attempt the Daytona 500 for the first time. Helio has been the talk of NASCAR twitter this week, with the majority believing he is a lock to wreck at some point. However, this reminds me a lot of when Travis Pastrana (motocross star) raced here last year. No one played him, and he ended up riding around in the back and finished 11th and was optimal. Also, keep in mind, there is a decent chance that Helio has a rookie error, such as speeding or missing pit road, that will force him out of the draft and may even go a lap down. Do not panic though, this would be great because he becomes a near lock to miss the next crash and he certainly will get back on the lead lap. All in all, we know it seems scary, but we advise ignoring the names and media buzz and taking shots on these two.
You may have noticed this writeup didn’t include some of the biggest names in the sport such as Denny Hamlin, and Joey Logano. This is because they are all starting inside the top 10. No matter how skilled a driver is, a great amount of luck comes into effect for this race, so drivers starting this high will absolutely kill your lineups if you pick them and they wreck out early. In cash contests they should be 0% owned, and we would not advise them in tournaments either, aside from maybe a 1-5% sprinkle in MME. The upside just isn’t good enough, as they could win the race and still not be optimal if enough guys starting in the back survive the wrecks.
Our last reminder to you is you should not be hesitant to leave oodles of salary on the table, and make your lineups unique! The unpredictability of this race gives us the chance to build lineups with high floors, high ceilings, and low-ish ownership, so let’s take advantage of it and make some cash!