Optimal Plays: Scottie Scheffler, Justin Rose, Lucas Glover
GPP Plays: Viktor Hovland, Collin Morikawa, Justin Thomas, Will Zalatoris, Sepp Straka, Keegan Bradly
This week we are back to golf although it is a capped field at only 20 golfers. It’s the Hero World Challenge and is held at Albany Golf Course in Nassau, Bahamas. This tournament is hosted by none other than Tiger Woods, who we also get to see in live action for the first time in a while this week. Viktor Hovland has won in back to back years here with Scottie Scheffler finishing in 2nd both years. The course itself is a par 72 but is different from most other par 72 courses with five par fives and five par threes. With all those scoring opportunities we expect another year with the finishing score around -18.
Since this tournament only has 20 golfers there won’t be many guys who will fly under the radar. One guy who checks out the best for us this week is Scottie Scheffer. Not only has he finished 2nd here the last two years, he also ranks in the top of the model this week. Scheffler is first in the field in Approach, Opps Gained, and SG: Par 5 over the last 24 rounds. We expect him to come out this week to get some revenge on Viktor Hovland and look to add another victory to impressive career. Speaking of Viktor, if you are not going to use Scottie at the top, he is our clear second favorite option. Viktor is arguably playing the best golf of anyone in the world at the moment, and will return to an event where he has found success. Vik will be the chalkier option this week, but we believe he is a great play as well. We also see the merit to taking a risky approach and stacking both of these high priced golfers into your lineup and punting the value options with Glover and another cheap option or two, as they could easily find their way into being the top-2 on the leaderboard.
If you need the slight salary relief from one of the two top end names, we believe Collin Morikawa is your guy, as we prefer these three 10k+ guys over anyone in the 9k range. Honestly, we would just skip over the 9ks. Collin grades out amongst the top of our model, ranking top-5 in Strokes Gained Approach, Strokes Gained on Par 5s, DraftKings Points, Birdie or Better Gained, and Opportunities Gained. At a very affordable price tag, Collin is a great option for the second man into your builds if you are unable to jam in the two highest priced names.
With many of the top golfers priced over $10k on Draftkings, it is important to find value with high upside this week. We don’t have to look very far to see that Lucas Glover stands out as one of the best value plays this week at only $6k. Glover finished last season on a strong note finishing 18th in the Tour Championship and carried that over to the swing season where he has now made both cuts so far. Although it is his first appearance here, his game is a fit on this course. He ranks 2nd in the field in Approach and 6th in BoB gained. Priced as the cheapest golfer here he makes perfect sense to plug into your lineups to pair with a few of the studs this week.
If you are looking for another cheap option to help you jam in two high priced options and run with the stud/scrub construction, we believe Justin Rose is far too cheap. He comes in having finished inside the top-5 in his last four trips to Albany for this event, and ranks top-10 amongst the field in Strokes Gained Approach, Strokes Gained on Par 5s, DraftKings Points, Birdie or Better Gained, and Opportunities Gained. At a very affordable price tag, Rose really helps your construction this week if you are looking to jam in the top options.
As for other value options we like, the next three that we would consider are Will Zalatoris, Sepp Straka, and Keegan Bradley. We understand the risk with Zal coming off of a major back injury, but he seems to be very healthy and has as much upside as anyone in this value price range if you want to take a chance on the upside he carries. Straka and Keegan are probably a bit safer given how we have seen them play recently, but it is hard to match the Zalatoris upside in this mid 6k price range.