Optimal Plays: Sabonis (FD), Adebayo, Edwards, Sengun, VanVleet, Garland, Barrett (DK), Hayward (FD), Robinson (FD), Monk (FD), Jaquez (DK), Martin (DK)
GPP Plays: Antetokounmpo, Tatum, Fox, Curry, Sabonis (DK), Young, Holmgren, Rozier Gobert (DK), Looney
Top Game Stacks: ATL/CLE (DK), MIL/MIA, GSW/SAC
Pending Injury News: Lively (Q)
IST Scenarios:
There are some In-Season Tournament scenarios that could impact minutes or situations that could be favorable from a DFS perspective. Below, we’ll be listing some of those scenarios
- The Bucks clinch their group with a win
- The Knicks need a win by a big margin for a possible wild-card spot
- The Timberwolves need a win for positioning
- The Hawks and Raptors have already been eliminated
- The Celtics need a win by a big margin to advance
- Warriors and Kings need a win; The Kings get a home game with a win
We’ve got a nice eight game slate of in-season tournament contests on tap for tonight, which is important to note. Teams in contention have reason to keep their starters in for longer towards the end of games, as point differential is a huge part of the tournament’s standings. We have added a new header for tonight, which will show how the tournament can affect games mainly due to point differential. There’ll be some value on the board tonight due to teams dealing with injuries, so we’ll have some options with different builds tonight as we look at three different games as possible stack options.
The top-graded play on the slate tonight is Alperen Sengun, as he has been amazing lately. Sengun has massive minute upside tonight and shouldn’t see a ton of ownership on DK. Sengun is arguably the best play on the slate tonight and could possibly even benefit from the absence of Derrick Lively, who remains questionable. Sengun is a great start to every lineup tonight, and we think he should be prioritized. Now let’s dive into the stacks!
Atlanta vs Cleveland
We start our stacks in Cleveland as Atlanta pays a visit tonight in a game with the highest total on the slate. We look to target this stack on DraftKings tonight, and we like a few players on both sides. We’ll start on the Cavs side tonight with Jarrett Allen. Allen sees a great matchup tonight, as Atlanta hasn’t been good against bigs lately. Over Atlanta’s last ten games, they’ve conceded 1.24 FPPM to centers. Allen has been scoring very efficiently lately and has been very solid in DFS, but the games he has underperformed in have come due to a lack of rebounds. However, Atlanta has given up a 16% boost in rebounds to centers over the last ten games, so we think Allen will have no problem on the boards tonight, which makes him a super reliable fit into your center spot tonight. The next Cav we like in this stack tonight is star, Donovan Mitchell. Mitchell always has the ability to top 60 fantasy points, which makes him a great play every night, but we like him in this spot specifically. Atlanta ranks 25th in defensive efficiency and 4th in pace, which just makes their games DFS gold, and the player we think this helps the most is Mitchell. He should see a ton of shot attempts and assist chances, as the Hawks have given up huge performances so far this year to high-volume shooters. Mitchell projects really well for us tonight, as he should see his normal 35 minutes and projects at sub-10% ownership tonight. The last Cav here is Evan Mobley. Mobley projects great for us tonight, and we think he is a good option in this matchup. This game should see a lot of points and should also be very close, as we have two super competitive teams, which bodes well for all these guys tonight.
On the Atlanta side tonight, we look to start with the Hawks scorching hot star guard Trae Young. Young is a great option tonight, as he has topped 50 DK points in 4 straight games and projects to see around 2% ownership tonight, which automatically makes him a great play as he always holds a 60+ point ceiling and is safe as he has had 44+ DK points in 11 straight games. The other two Hawks that we really like tonight are Clint Capela and Bogdan Bogdanovic. First, we’ll start with Clint, who sees a great matchup tonight as Cleveland has given up 1.16 FPPM to centers over the last ten games. We like Bogdan in this spot, as we think he should receive a few of the missing minutes here from the absence of Jalen Johnson, and the 30 projected minutes of Bogdanovic give him a safe floor and high ceiling at his price tag. We like the Cleveland side of this stack much better than the Atlanta side, but we think Atlanta’s side is a good spot to attack for a low-ownership short stack.
Milwaukee vs Miami
This Bucks vs Heat matchup has great stack potential, as we have several viable plays on the Miami side with Jimmy Butler out. This stack will possess much more ownership on DK than on FD, but will still carry some ownership on FD. On the Miami side of things, we like Jaime Jaquez on both sites, but much more on DK, as he’s $600 cheaper over there. Caleb Martin is in the same boat as we get a discount on DK, but we like him on both sites as well. Kyle Lowry is viable on both sites for this stack and makes for a solid play. After that, Duncan Robinson is viable on FanDuel only, and Josh Richardson and Kevin Love are viable on DK only. The variations in price on DK and FD make a difference here when attacking this stack. The absence of Jimmy Butler opens up additional minutes and opportunities for these guys, which makes a few Heat players viable on both sites.
On the Milwaukee side, it’s a bit tougher as they’re priced up, but you’ll likely have 3-4 Heat players that you can run back with a lower-owned Buck. We currently don’t have any Bucks players that are projecting ownership above 5%, so this could really differentiate your lineups, even when eating the Miami chalk. Giannis, Lillard, and Middleton (FD) are viable run-backs to round out the game stack.
Golden State vs Sacramento
This is the second-highest total of the slate and will have some additional meaning with both teams incentivized to win for the in-season tournament as well, not to mention it is a rematch of the thrilling playoff series last year. This game has a total of 236.5 and a tight spread of just 1.5, so there’s high upside here. This is a relatively low-owned stack on DK; only Malik Monk and Klay Thompson are above 10% in our projections. On FanDuel, pricing is much softer; we see seven guys projected for more than 10% ownership in the projections as a result. On the Sacramento side, we like Monk, Sabonis, and Huerter. These three should come in at above 20% and rate out nicely in the projections. Trey Lyles is a viable piece for some value to add to the stack if you’d like. Lastly, De’Aaron Fox is worth mentioning, as he always has massive upside, especially in a game environment like this. He’s priced up but is worth a roster within the stack or for GPPs
The Golden State side is a bit less enticing from a DFS perspective, but there are some viable pieces to target. Thompson, Green, Curry, and Wiggins are the guys we would target when rounding out this stack. However, our favorite may be Kevon Looney. Looney has absolutely dominated his meetings with Domantas Sabonis over the last two seasons. Over the course of a twelve game sample size, Looney has averaged 13.2 rebounds and 4.5 assists per game which would smash this line with his rebounding prowess alone. Three of those twelve games saw him gobble up 20+ rebounds and eight of the twelve saw him finish with 10+ rebounds. All of these guys are priced cheaper on FanDuel, so they’ll rate out much better there. However, that makes it juicy for GPPs on DraftKings.
Conclusion: The In-Season Tournament continues with eight games. We look to target ATL/CLE (DK), MIL/MIA, and GSW/SAC for our three game stacks of the night, as we see value on both sides of all four games. Alperen Sengun looks underpriced for his recent production and grades out as one of the top overall plays of the night, and he will carry ownership tonight on both sites. We also have some question marks in the injury department tonight, so stay tuned for injury news and updates in the discord prior to lock. Good Luck!