Pitching: Williams (Optimal), Jax (Value 1), Bradish (Value 2), Liberatore (Value 3)
Hitting: STL (Optimal), CHC (GPP 1), LAD (GPP 2), CLE (GPP 3)
Fade: DeGrom
Weather: All Clear
Welcome to a fun Saturday slate of baseball as we take some interesting stands today. The first stand we want to take is fading deGrom at his massive ownership. We saw Eovaldi have a poor outing and we believe there’s reason to be concerned with deGrom who has some red flags in his X stats. In addition, we want to provide three solid value pitchers that will allow us to spend for any bats we want.
The optimal pitcher of the slate is Gavin Williams who takes on the Chicago White Sox. He has massive strikeout rates of 32% to both sides of the plate. He’ll get to take on at least five batters with strikeout rates above 22%. The X stats also meet our criteria as he holds lefties to a rate of (.189/.298) and righties to a rate of (.161/.313). This is a great way to start your lineups as a pivot from the deGrom ownership.
The first value pitcher we like is Griffin Jax who takes on the Seattle Mariners. He has strikeout rates of 28% to LHH and 23% to RHH. He’ll get to take on five batters with strikeout rates above 21% which is close to the league average. The X stats also look solid as he holds LHH to a rate of (.165/.328) and RHH to a rate of (.168/.315). This is a great way to free up salary to spend on premium bats.
The next value pitcher on our radar is Kyle Bradish who takes on the Texas Rangers. He has strikeout rates of at least 22% to both sides of the plate. He’ll get to face up to a potential nine batters with strikeout rates above 21% which feeds into his upside as a value play. The X stats also look good as he holds lefties to a rate of (.132/.311) and righties to a rate of (.160/.310). This is another great way to allow yourself to spend up on the elite bats of the slate.
The last value pitcher we like is Matthew Liberatore. He has had a phenomenal last month which is why we like him. In the last 30 days, he has K rates of at least 28% to both sides of the plate. He’ll get to take on five batters with strikeout rates above 22% which is solid. The X stats solidify this play as he holds lefties to a rate of (.035/.237) and righties to a rate of (.120/.260). Riding the hot hand is a good way to free up more salary as you build your lineups and find the right pieces.
The optimal team of this slate are the St. Louis Cardinals who take on Kyle Freeland. The problem for Freeland has been that his fastball has been destroyed by both sides of the plate. JJ Wetherholt, Jordan Walker, Alec Burleson, Masyn Winn, Nelson Velasquez, and Blaze Jordan have had success against the fastball this year. Ivan Herrera is also viable due to his success against LHP this year. Our favorite options are JJ Wetherholt and Ivan Herrera.
The next team we like are the Chicago Cubs who take on Seth Lugo. The problem for Lugo has been that his sinker has been destroyed by both sides of the plate as his primary pitch. Pete Crow–Armstrong, Seiya Suzuki, Michael Busch, Ian Happ, Nico Hoerner, Dansby Swanson, and Miguel Amaya have had success against the sinker this year. Alex Bregman is viable due to the good form he has been in recently. Our favorite options are Dansby Swanson and Pete Crow-Armstrong.
The Los Angeles Dodgers make our list next as their bats give them a good chance to bust out of their massive losing streak. They take on Brandon Pfaadt who has had trouble with his sinker to both sides of the plate this year. Shohei Ohtani, Andy Pages, Freddie Freeman, Max Muncy, Kyle Tucker, Mookie Betts, and Tommy Edman have had success against the sinker this year. Our favorite options are Freddie Freeman and Shohei Ohtani.
The last stack to discuss are the Cleveland Guardians who take on Anthony Kay and his poor fastball. It helps that Kay has low strikeout rates as well which make his pitches easier to see. Steven Kwan, Chase Delauter, Jose Ramirez, Jo Adell, Rhys Hoskins, and Brayan Rocchio have had success against the fastball this year. Travis Bazzana is viable due to his elite plate discipline and ability to make contact. Lastly, Austin Hedges and Angel Genao are viable values as righties since Kay struggles to RHH in general. Our favorite options are Jose Ramirez and Jo Adell.