Cash: Del Valle, T. Miller, Salkilld, Asplund
GPP: Foro, Sousa, J. Miller, Thainara, Ferreira, Johns, Nurgozhay, Sutherland
Value: Gamrot, Lopes, Montanha, Lemos, Quarantillo, Goff, Canuto, Elkins, Pat, Vazquez, Oliveira
Welcome to a fun UFC Fight Night card as we discuss our picks for every matchup! We want to make it known that this is a card with very mediocre values which is why we have only selected two that we want to take shots on. As we typically do, if you are looking for values we will list the viable ones. From left to right, it is going to be our most confident to least confident values.
The main event gives us a classic striker vs. wrestler matchup. We are going to side with the wrestler in Mateusz Gamrot over Quillan Salkilld. Both men are viable in this spot because if Salkilld wins, it will be by a first round knockout which would easily make him optimal. We have confidence that the knockout won’t transpire here though. We believe that Gamrot can weather the storm for a round before taking over the last four rounds. The one weakness to Salkillds game is that he can’t defend the takedown and that he doesn’t have true experience in the later rounds. An elite wrestler like Gamrot is going to have a field day with him landing takedown after takedown and racking up control time. Give us Gamrot to pull off the victory in a fight that has close odds.
The co-main event gives us Diego Ferreira and Billy Quarantillo. We are going to side with Ferreira in this spot because we feel that the power and striking edges he has in this matchup are valuable. Billy Q is more of a volume striker but there’s not much pop in his shots. If this fight is competitive and close, the judges will value the more impactful shots which would be coming from the Ferreira side. Both men can wrestle and have solid scrambling ability so we don’t anticipate this fight taking place there. If it does, we would also give an ever so slight edge to Ferreira who has a sneaky submission game. An outside factor for us with this fight is that Quarantillo and his wife just had a baby that did have complications for a bit this past week. Thankfully, the baby is okay and healthy. On the fighting side though, as any man would, that means that Quarantillo was not in the gym training for this last week and maybe more. That’s just concerning for us especially when his layoff is already super long. Give us Ferreira to get the victory here over Billy Q.
We considered taking the value over the highest priced fighter on the slate at first, but after further research, a crazy stand will not be had here. We do believe Yadier Del Valle is worth the price of admission against Darren Elkins. If this was Elkins from maybe 4-5 years ago, it’d be a different story. The problem for Elkins is that he is a 42 year old fighter with massive durability issues. We can see Del Valle finding a knockout early or going for a submission if he chooses to initiate the wrestling.
We have another striker vs. grappler matchup as Amanda Lemos takes on Alexia Thainara. This is very similar to our main event as the path to victory for Lemos would be via knockout. The problem is that we have significantly more confidence that it would be more likely to happen for Salkilld than Lemos though. Lemos has cardio issues so if she can’t find a rhythm early then this fight is as good as over. Thainara is a fantastic grappler with solid cardio so we expect her to dominate this fight like we feel Gamrot is going to do.
Another stud we like on this slate is Ty Miller over Billy Ray Goff. The one way to beat Miller is with wrestling but we don’t believe that Goff is good enough to take advantage of that weakness. With that being said, we believe that Ty Miller is the superior striker in this matchup. He packs insane volume and has a tremendous jab that is a nightmare to deal with. Ty Miller loves to put on pressure and carries good cardio which are two good traits to have in this matchup. We believe the striking game of Miller will overwhelm Goff and lead to a finish at some point in this fight.
Steven Asplund is a solid stud to consider in his matchup against Guilherme Pat. The problem for Pat is that he doesn’t have the high volume and overwhelming striking game to pose a problem for Asplund. Pat is a low volume fighter with middling power so Asplund will be able to easily eat his shots. On the other side, Asplund loves to put pressure and throw in volume. You’ll get an aggression we love to see as well because Asplund knows he’s the better fighter with nothing to fear so he’ll walk Pat down all fight. This is one of those fights where we expect Asplund to dominate a striking affair and potentially secure a late round finish with the pressure he puts on.
It’s unreal to say but we have extreme confidence in Miles Johns in his fight against Gianni Vasquez. Johns is typically an easy fade because he is a mediocre fighter, but the UFC somehow managed to match him up with a fighter worse than him. Vasquez can’t defend takedowns so we believe that Johns can easily get this fight to the ground and rack up control time. If this fight stays on the feet, we give the edge to Johns who is capable of landing power shots and has decent volume. The cardio and experience edge that Johns has in this matchup solidifies him as a solid midrange play.
The second highest priced stud is Carol Foro as she takes on Gigi Canuto in the first fight of this card. This fight has a lot of unknowns so that does make Canuto a viable value to consider. The problem for Canuto is that she likes to wrestle but Foro does carry solid takedown defense. Even if Foro does get taken down, she has a great ability to scramble and get back up. The wrestling is only going to drain the gas tank of Canuto which isn’t very good to begin with. When this fight is on the feet, there is a clear edge for Foro who is a technical striker and carries solid power which is why she is a heavy favorite. The unknown factor of just how good these fighters are make us like Foro because we do believe a finish is possible and could become optimal if Canuto isn’t able to take the shots coming her way well. We saw women put up optimal scores in our last card, ironically in the fight card opener. We could be seeing something similar here in this spot.
We can’t believe we are saying this but Juliana Miller is a heavy favorite in her matchup against Ravena Oliveira. The funnier thing is that it is completely justified and we have extreme confidence in Miller for as mediocre as she can be. For Ravena Oliveira, this is an extreme step up in competition compared to the absolute cans she has fought in her career. In addition, she can’t defend takedowns to save her life. The wrestling game is the bread and butter of Juliana Miller and this is basically a tailor made matchup for her. We expect Miller to get this fight to the ground and find a submission within the first two rounds.
The last stud we like is Manoel Sosa who takes on Richie Miranda. The reason we like Sosa is because he is the superior striker. Miranda does have grappling in his arsenal but we don’t think it’ll matter or be effective. Sosa carries immense power which is a problem when he also has speed to go with it. He’ll be able to put together combination after combination to go along with a nasty jab that will give Miranda fits for as long as this fight lasts. We do expect Sosa to continue his showcase and find a knockout finish against Miranda at some point in this fight.
This fight lacks confident values but we are saving the last two fights to discuss the ones that are viable to use in your lineups. The first is Bruno Lopes as he takes on Diyar Nurgozhay. We will make it known that if you want to take Nurgozhay, you very much can. The value we are taking a shot with is not good in striking distance and has a very questionable chin. The favorite can easily find a knockout here. The hope here is that Lopes recognizes that and makes this fight a grind by initiating the clinch game and getting this fight to the ground where Nurgozhay is his weakest. We have seen Nurgozhay taken down and submitted before and Lopes is capable of doing the same here. By initiating the clinch, it also zaps the power of Nurgozhay which makes the worries of a knockout on our value less likely. This is going to be a sweat, but we don’t mind taking a shot here with Bruno Lopes.
We saved the worst fight for last as the UFC gives us a battle of two mediocre fighters. To start off with, we don’t think all that much of Louie Sutherland who is simply a big body. His strikes are fine because of his size but he doesn’t bring much to the table. Jose Montanha on the other hand brings wrestling to the table which can be trouble for Sutherland. Montanha can maintain top control very well and the wrestling would only zap at the cardio of Sutherland. While Sutherland does have a striking advantage, it is only a slight one because we do believe Montanha is defensively sound. This is a fight we believe is worth taking a shot on with the value.