Pitching: Harrison (#1 Optimal), Griffin (#2 Optimal), Mlodzinski (#1 GPP), Meyer (#2 GPP)
Hitting: ATH (#1 Optimal), CLE (Optimal value), BOS (#1 GPP), PIT (#2 GPP)
Weather: BOS/HOU looks like it could have steady light rain throughout. We’ll want to check updates on this up to lock.
Your optimal pitching option on this afternoon’s slate is Milwaukee Brewers left-hander Kyle Harrison. Harrison has been excellent in his first season with the Brewers, posting a 2.28 ERA and 30 Ks across 5 starts, including a 12 K performance his last time out against the Pirates. The xStats back up the surface stats thus far, as Harrison is holding LHH to a slash line of .052/.336, with RHH slashing just .115/.282. What is really intriguing is that Harrison is striking out RHH at a 35% clip this season, and tonight he will likely face a lineup with 6 RHH in it. The icing on top of the cake for Harrison—and part of the reason he is projecting so strongly—is the weather in Washington tonight, where it will be fairly windy, resulting in the Nationals and Brewers having the two lowest implied totals on the slate. Harrison will be quite popular, but on a smaller slate without a ton of options, we would recommend him in all contests.
The other pitcher from that game is Foster Griffin, who actually projects as a slightly better value when compared to Harrison. Griffin also gets the benefit of the solid pitching environment, which is baked into his strong projection. In terms of xStats, there is slight cause for concern, as LHH are slashing .232/.338 off him in the early going this season. That said, he is striking them out at nearly a 28% clip. RHH, on the other hand, hold a .174/.333 line and are striking out 19% of the time. The matchup is a good one, as this Brewers lineup has just one hitter with an xISO of .160 or higher against LHP a season ago. Griffin will also be popular and is projecting for ownership in the 30–35% range. Playing both Griffin and Harrison is viable and is the optimal move for cash games.
One GPP pivot we like is Pittsburgh Pirates right-hander Carmen Mlodzinski. Mlodzinski’s surface stats leave something to be desired, but his xStats and K rates have been solid, as he is holding RHH to a slash line of .042/.285, with LHH at .145/.336, and K rates around 24% to batters from both sides of the plate. Part of the reason Mlodzinski’s real stats do not exactly match his xStats is an extremely high BABIP, especially to LHH at .400. Given that he is not giving up hard contact on a regular basis, it is safe to say he has been getting pretty unlucky and is due to regress toward the mean vs. LHH, which he will face 5 of tonight for the Reds. He is unlikely to get you a huge spike score from strikeouts, but he has flashed some upside with an 8 K performance earlier this season. Overall, he is fairly cheap, projects well for his price, and is a fraction of the ownership of similarly projecting Harrison and Griffin.
The final GPP option is Miami Marlins right-hander Max Meyer. Meyer has put together a very respectable first month of the season, with a 3.30 ERA and 33 Ks across his first 6 starts. His xStats are solid as well and are actually showing a slight uptick against batters from both sides, as LHH are slashing .136/.312 and RHH .163/.355, with K rates of about 25% to batters from both sides. The matchup seems like a perfect one for GPPs, as the Phillies have a very top-heavy lineup that most people would avoid when considering pitching options. That said, after the top 3–4 hitters, there is a serious drop-off, with 6 batters holding an xISO of .105 or worse against RHP through the first month of the season. Add in the fact that Trea Turner is skidding a bit as well, and you can really see how Meyer could come in with a ceiling performance today if he can just figure out a way to get Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber out.
Much like with the optimal pitching pairing on this slate, park factor and weather are huge driving forces behind the two optimal stacking options this afternoon, with the Athletics hosting the Cleveland Guardians at Sutter Health Park. Starting with the Athletics, they have an implied total that is almost an entire run higher than the next closest team, as they get a matchup with Guardians right-hander Slade Cecconi. Cecconi has been getting smacked around of late, allowing 6 or more hits and 4 or more ERs in 3 of his last 4 starts coming into today. He has a very fastball-heavy approach, throwing it 44% of the time to LHH and just below 40% of the time against RHH. A season ago, LHH slashed .269/.373 off it, with RHH at .226/.412, and he has not done much to change that in the first month of this season. Nick Kurtz (.474/.491), Shea Langeliers (.222/.339), Tyler Soderstrom (.228/.365), Brent Rooker (.287/.359), Carlos Cortes (.265/.373), and Jacob Wilson (xwOBA .360) would be the top options, with very strong numbers against righty fastballs a season ago.
On the other side of that game, the Guardians have the second-highest implied total on the slate while also being quite cheap, leading to them projecting as elite value.. With the exception of Jose Ramirez, who is $6,100 on DK, every other player in their lineup is $4,200 or less, with 5 guys under $3,000. As a result, almost their entire lineup pops to the top of our point/$ rankings. They will be facing Jacob Lopez, who has really struggled with control this season, allowing at least 2 BB in every appearance, including 3 starts with 4 or more. The xStats are not terrible, but he routinely gets himself into trouble and has not been able to pitch deep into games, turning things over to the mediocre Athletics bullpen on a regular basis. Jose Ramirez stands alone in this lineup and is the highest projected owned bat on the slate. Around him, Rhys Hoskins, Austin Hedges, David Fry, Travis Bazzana, and Steven Kwan are all solid value options. Chase DeLauter does not project as well with a slightly elevated price tag but carries high upside and is great in the stack or even as a GPP one-off.
The top GPP pivot this afternoon is the Boston Red Sox against Houston Astros right-hander Spencer Arrighetti. Despite the quiet start for this Red Sox squad, the lineup is loaded with young, high-upside LHH that, coming into the year, projected to provide fits for most RHP—especially middle-of-the-road ones like Arrighetti. A season ago, Arrighetti allowed LHH to slash .213/.384 off him, and while he has shown some improvement against them in the early going this season, he is still allowing an xwOBA north of .350. His fastball was clobbered by LHH last season, with a slash line of .268/.375. He is throwing it a bit less this year against lefties but still goes to it almost a quarter of the time. Jarren Duran (.196/.382), Roman Anthony (.339/.490), Wilyer Abreu (.244/.314), and Marcelo Mayer would be the top LHH to target, as they did a lot of damage against righty fastballs last season. From the right side, Willson Contreras (.223/.350) and Trevor Story are viable as well.The final GPP stacking option on this early slate is the Pittsburgh Pirates, who will be facing Cincinnati Reds right-hander Rhett Lowder. It is the LHH in particular we want to target for the Pirates, as Lowder is allowing them to slash .203/.340 against him, with a .220/.415 line against his fastball, which is his most-used pitch. Oneil Cruz (.255/.372), Brandon Lowe (.358/.407), Bryan Reynolds (.216/.379), Ryan O’Hearn (.253/.414), and Spencer Horwitz (xwOBA .260) will all hit from the left side and have mashed against righty fastballs.