Pending injury news: Tatum
The Edge: Sixers Big 3 at Captain
We have our first showdown slate of the playoffs! It features the Philadelphia 76ers heading to the Boston Celtics in a winner-take-all Game 7 for the right to play the New York Knicks in the second round. The big news, of course, is Jayson Tatum popping up early today with a downgrade to questionable status, and that will loom large over this game. Let’s get to it!
The Sixers have played the Celtics very well the last couple of games, as Embiid has returned to full minutes. Both teams probably tighten up the bench here, and we get a lot of starters. On Philly, the resurgence of Paul George has been pretty remarkable. It’s not just being secondary to the Embiid/Maxey two-man game and hitting his 3s, but he’s played active defense and connected them on offense with his passing well, giving him some nice all-around stats. He is a viable captain at his price to help you get more studs in. Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey would obviously be the other captain options for the Sixers. Embiid was able to go 39 minutes in Game 5, then they cut him back a bit in the 3rd quarter of the last game, but it may have been just because they were up by enough, they saw a chance to steal some extra rest. Playing him at captain obviously restricts the rest of your lineup, but he can be used there. Maxey really got going the last two games with Embiid and found that sweetspot with the big guy there, and his ceiling is not far below Embiid’s. We think a lot of the offensive output could concentrate around these three for the Sixers. Kelly Oubre looked healthy in Game 6 and went 39 minutes, so he is viable. He’s a bit more expensive than we’d really like, but the minutes upside can’t be questioned. VJ Edgecombe has been very good in a real basketball sense the last two games, and last game had a nice fantasy game. We prefer Oubre given the price difference, and you never know what to expect from a rookie in a Game 7. The only Knicks bench buy we’d want to consider is Quentin Grimes, and he still got 22 minutes last game even with Oubre playing his full workload. His price makes him a very appealing value guy, as we really like Philly to play even with these guys.
On the Boston side, obviously, Jayson Tatum looms large. With the downgrade, he feels like he’ll be far less popular given his price, so he has now become an option to pay up to be contrarian, and we think he’ll not be captained much. We can’t go there ourselves on the captain piece, but we understand why it’d be appealing, and if you want to play that where it’d be lower owned than usual, we get it. Jaylen Brown is not in a great spot if Tatum plays, given how he’s been owned by George this series. His usage probably ticks up even if he does play, but it’s hard to see him paying off his salary. If Tatum is out, that’s where he gets interesting. His usage obviously would be expected to go way up if Tatum doesn’t play, as it’s been +3.9% higher in this series without him. He would need a big game for Boston to win, and while he still has some floor given how Philly has controlled him and the extra attention he’d get, he could grind his way to a big game. We personally don’t want to captain him either way, but he becomes very viable if Tatum is out, otherwise we’d stay away. Payton Pritchard is really, really expensive. He’s another guy we just can’t justify that price tag for if Tatum plays, and even if he’s out, it’s tough to get there. His usage goes up more than Brown’s without Tatum on the floor this series (+6%), but he’s been a streaky shooter. That shooting does give him a ceiling, though, and he probably is low-owned because we can’t imagine he’d project very well. Derrick White just looks broken offensively. We’ve seen big Game 7s from guys who were absent the entire series, but you’re paying a pretty penny to try and hit that. We would rather look elsewhere. The Celtic’s value is actually where we like them the most. Neemias Queta has the same prop lines as Oubre, but is way cheaper. Vucevic has looked nearly unplayable outside his one big game, and Queta has found his place on the boards when he’s out there. He was trending to about 28 minutes before Mazzula pulled everyone in the fourth quarter, and we think he could be a sneaky bet for high-20s minutes, and he’s cheap enough, so we don’t mind betting on that. Sam Hauser has been fine in his time out there, and he can get hot and hit five 3s in a game. He’s cheap enough we like betting on his upside as the random dude who scores 15 points in a Game 7. Jordan Walsh is probably the best punt play in this game. He might score 5 fantasy points, but he might find himself getting 18 minutes because he plays so well defensively against the Sixers and falls into double-digit fantasy points. That doesn’t sound great, but in a showdown, sometimes getting that punt play who can get to double-digit points and lets you get 1 more stud in there can be the big difference-maker.
Best of luck tonight, everyone!