Pitching: Messick (SP1), Detmers (SP2/ #1 GPP), Gray (#2 GPP), Scott (Value GPP), Lambert (Deep GPP leverage)
Hitting: MIL RHH/PIT LHH (Cash), Full PIT (#1 GPP), TEX (#2 GPP), KCR (#2 GPP), TOR (#3 GPP)
Weather: All Clear!
Chalk Fades: Yesavage, Rasmussen, King, MIL LHH
Starting with a couple of pitcher chalk fades, Trey Yesavage and Drew Rasmussen both look to be soaking up a good amount of ownership despite less-than-ideal point/$ projections. Neither quite qualifies as bad chalk, but given their salaries and projections, we prefer other options on the slate. For Yesavage, he has only scored more than 20 DraftKings points once in his 6 starts this season, but has seen his price climb to nearly $10K. At that price, 15-20 point scores do not burn you in any contest, and we see others at cheaper prices with the same floor and an even higher ceiling, making this an easy pass for us. On a similar note, Rasmussen has scored 20 or more points in 3 of his last 5 starts but is a tick below the other options we like in terms of point/$. He has also shown some vulnerability of late against RHH, allowing them an xISO of .220 over the last 30 days. Mike Trout and Zach Neto both have had solid right-on-right power numbers, especially against Rasmussen’s primary pitch mix, and can be considered leverage options as well.
Your top optimal pitching option this afternoon is Cleveland Guardians left-hander Parker Messick. For starters, it looks like there will be some pretty significant wind blowing in today, which has resulted in the Guardians and the opposing Red Sox having two of the lower implied totals on the slate at just above 3 runs each. This obviously is playing a factor in his strong projection, but Messick himself has been one of the more consistently dominant arms in baseball this season. In terms of DFS, he has now scored 23 or more points on DraftKings in 4 of his last 6 starts and has flashed a 30+ point ceiling. In terms of the xStats, he has been very tough on batters from both sides, holding RHH to a line of .117/.282, with LHH slashing just .097/.293. His K rate against RHH has been elite, just north of 30%, while still getting LHH at a respectable 21% clip. The reverse-split nature of the K rates makes this an even more intriguing matchup for him, as the Red Sox are projected to send 7 RHH to the plate this afternoon. Overall, the weather, Messick’s elite stuff, and the matchup all point to a very solid floor/ceiling combination and have Messick projecting as the top point/$ arm on the slate on both sites, even FanDuel, where he has been priced up significantly. On DraftKings, he will be heavily owned, but has the makeup of chalk we may just want to eat across all contests, making sure we are getting different elsewhere in GPPs. Due to the higher price tag, his ownership is not as severe on FanDuel, which makes him an even more intriguing GPP option there.
Your optimal pairing option this afternoon is Los Angeles Angels left-hander Reid Detmers. Detmers has been a bit inconsistent, but when he is on, he’s elite, which was evident in his last start, where he blew up for 43 points on DraftKings, racking up 14 strikeouts across 8 innings of 1-run ball against the Rangers. What is driving the optimal tag for us this afternoon on DraftKings is his discounted price tag at just $7.5K, making him one of the best point/$ options. The inconsistency and the better perceived matchup against the strikeout-happy Angels have Drew Rasmussen soaking up much more of the SP2 ownership this afternoon, despite a higher price and worse point/$ projection. We wouldn’t call Rasmussen bad chalk per se, but the point/$ marks and ownership discrepancy have us leaning toward Detmers in cash games and GPPs alike. It also makes for a very strong GPP play where we can get the better-graded guy at a fraction of the ownership. Beyond the projection, the xStats for Detmers are solid, as he is holding batters from both sides to xISOs below .130 and xwOBAs below .290. The K rates are near elite, as he is getting LHH 24% of the time while getting RHH at a 30% clip. The reverse splits in his K rates will also help strengthen the upside in this matchup, as it appears the Rays will be sending 6 RHH to the plate against him. Most of the Rays’ hitters hold below-average K rates; that said, we do not need Detmers to strike out 14 again to hit his value. Overall, we love the salary relief Detmers can provide without losing upside potential. We like Detmers in all contests this afternoon.
For GPP options, Sonny Gray will get the same benefit as Messick with the pitcher-friendly environment in Cleveland with one of the lowest implied totals we have seen all season. That should help secure his floor, and while Gray has not flashed the same K rates we have grown accustomed to in seasons past, his recent form suggests his K rates will continue to climb closer to the 25%-30% rates we saw last year and really throughout Gray’s career. Currently, he is striking out batters around 20% of the time, but in the last 30 days, we have seen that number spike to 35% against RHH and a slight tick up against LHH. He’s been using his sweeper a lot more lately and it’s creating far more swinging strikes. While not elite, the xStats still check out for us, as he is holding batters from both sides to xISOs below .160 and xwOBAs below .335. The downside here is that the sweeper has allowed him to dominate righties lately, but the Guardians are sending 8 LHH against Gray this afternoon, which limits the upside a bit. That said, 5 of the batters projected to be in their lineup are striking out 24% of the time or more against RHP this season. Overall, Gray’s point/$ mark is just a hair below the top options, taking him out of the optimal range, but it is still in the same ballpark, making him a solid GPP pivot. Do not be afraid to pair him with Messick in GPPs, as most try to avoid two pitchers from the same game, making it a unique pairing even with Messick’s heavy ownership. Next time Gray gets a matchup against a righty-heavy lineup, we should definitely be all over him.
The other GPP option to consider looks like a nice value piece, as New York Mets right-hander Christian Scott is set to face the Miami Marlins. With a sub-$7K price tag on DraftKings and $7.3K on FanDuel, Scott grades out as one of the top point/$ options on both sites while the ownership stays in check. Scott has failed to consistently go deep into games, which hurts his upside a bit, but is coming off his most efficient start to date, where he was able to get through 5.2 innings and saw a season-high pitch count of 94. The walks have been a bit of an issue for Scott, as he has now walked at least two batters in his last 4 starts. That said, while his strikeout numbers do not jump off the page, he owns K rates of 28% against LHH and 24% against RHH and has struck out 5 or more batters in his last 5 starts. The xStats have been solid, especially against LHH, as he is holding them to a line of just .049/.296. Against RHH, the xwOBA is a bit elevated at .370, but he has still been able to limit their power a bit, holding them to an xISO of .140. In terms of the matchup, he is set to see 6 LHH today, which plays to his stronger strikeout platoon, and 4 of the batters in Miami’s lineup own K rates of 26% or higher against RHP this season. While Scott has not flashed crazy upside yet, he has it in him with those K rates if he has good command, and still can put up a very solid score for his price even if he walks some guys, making him a fairly safe value play for cash games with upside relative to his price in GPPs.
In terms of offense, this projects to be a pretty low-scoring slate, with most teams having an implied total of 4.5 or less. One of the teams atop that list, right around the 4.5 mark, is the Milwaukee Brewers, and their primary bats seem to be the ones soaking up the most ownership. This is something to consider for cash games, but in GPPs we would suggest staying away, as the top-owned guys do not even project all that well, and the LHH actually find themselves in a pretty tough matchup, as Astros starter Peter Lambert boasts some pretty elite stats against them with a K rate of 26% while holding them to a line of .087/.279. The price and projection for Lambert have us hesitant to go all in and call him out as an elite leverage GPP option, but the Brewers projecting to send 7 LHH to the plate against him definitely makes him intriguing in deep GPPs or MME pools. For cash-game purposes, the highest-owned Brewers look to be Willson Contreras, Jackson Chourio, Jake Bauers, and Christian Yelich. The two RHH, Chourio and Contreras, you will likely want to just lock in, but beyond that it could be an uphill battle for the rest of the lineup, with a strong potential for them to bust.
The second team to consider is the Pittsburgh Pirates, who actually lead the slate in implied total right at 4.5 runs. For cash games, we like the matchups of the high projected ownership guys here, as Oneil Cruz and Brandon Lowe should be in a prime spot against Minnesota Twins right-hander Bailey Ober. Ober is allowing LHH an xISO of .250, and his two primary pitches, his fastball (.332/.390) and his changeup (xISO .248), have also been vulnerable against powerful LHH like Lowe and Cruz. Lowe owns an overall line of .314/.412 against RHP this season and, in a small sample, has hit both their fastballs (.613/.534) and changeups (.374/.463) very hard. Cruz has a similar profile, slashing .221/.333 against righties this year with strong career numbers against their fastballs, including a line of .225/.372 a year ago. Others to consider in this lineup with good profiles against RHP like Ober are Bryan Reynolds (.216/.379 vs. FB) and Spencer Horwitz (xISO .360 vs. FB). Finally, the discounted guys in this lineup blow the Brewers out of the water in terms of point/$, as Jared Triolo, Henry Davis, and the aforementioned Spencer Horwitz all carry significantly better point/$ marks when compared to anyone in the Brewers lineup. Overall, the best cash strategy is likely the RHH from the Brewers and the top LHH mentioned for the Pirates and then just filling the rest with top-projecting guys. From a GPP perspective, Lowe and Cruz will carry their fair share of ownership, but they are still below the top Brewers guys in that department. A full Pirates stack is definitely viable in GPPs, as there is a pretty significant drop-off in ownership after their top few guys, which is rare to get out of a team with the highest implied total on the slate.
Another strong GPP stacking option to consider are the Texas Rangers against Royals right hander Seth Lugo. Lugo has allowed 5 or more hits, 2 or more ER, and at least 2 walks in his last 5 starts dating back to the beginning of May. Over that span, he is allowing RHH to slash .357/.498 with LHH at .182/.355. Lugo has a pretty robust pitch mix, so it is difficult to target one specific pitch, but the fact of the matter is most, if not all, are getting hit very hard. Joc Pederson, Josh Jung, Brandon Nimmo, and Alejandro Osuna all hold xwOBAs of .345 or higher against RHP this season with Nimmo, Pederson, and Jung flashing some solid power numbers as well. Jake Burger and Evan Carter’s xStats do not stand out as much as we would like, but Burger has 7 HRs off RHP this season to Carter’ s 6 with Carter also carrying some SB upside. Finally Nicky Lopez is worth mentioning as he is the stone cold minimum on DraftKings resulting in a solid point/$ projection.
Another GPP option we like are the Kansas City Royals who combine low owned solid point/$ marks across the board with the ability to anchor them with a true stud like Bobby Witt Jr. They will face Rangers right hander Kumar Rocker. Rocker has been hit hard by LHH all season allowing them an xwOBA of .367 and while his season long marks against RHH look decent, over the last 30 days he is allowing them a line of .197/.398. In terms of projections, Isaac Collins, Jac Caglianone, Kyle Isbel, Michael Massey, Carter Jensen, Salvador Perez, and Vinnie Pasquantino all look solid. Looking at the pitch mix and xStats, Rocker is one of the few pitchers in baseball whose primary pitch is his slider. Witt Jr (.215/.335), Perez (.313/.378), Pasquantio (.230/.394), and Collins (xwOBA .363) all had solid numbers against righty sliders a year ago and would be our top options.
The final GPP option to consider has us going back to the well with the Blue Jays in a matchup with O’s right hander Brandon Young. Young is primarily a fastball pitcher throwing it 50% of the time to LHH and 32% of the time to RHH allowing lefties an xISO of .226 off it with righties slashing .256/.407. The top RHH to consider would be George Springer (.222/.321), Vlad Guerrero Jr (xwOBA .391), and Kazuma Okamoto (.328/.375) who have solid numbers against righty fastballs across a pretty decent sample thus far. For LHH Jesus Sanchez (.215/.350), and Dalton Varsho (.333/.325) would be the guys to target with strong numbers against righty fastballs.