This line is +127 on Tailgate. Good to +105. Ober can definitely blow up as his stuff is far from overpowering. But he’s done a great job of keeping hitters off balance and this Pirates team isn’t mostly super undisciplined which is where Ober has been best. The Pirates barrel rates and hard hit rates continue to trend in the wrong direction week after week lately. On the other side, Keller is fine, but he can be hit. This Twins team has picked it up in terms of batted ball metrics over the last few weeks and we think they have the better offense right now. We think this game should be closer to a pick em.
