Pitching: Misiorowski (SP1), Yesavage (SP2A), Baz (SP2B), Lodolo (GPP value), Sasaki (GPP), Jump (GPP Leverage)
Hitting: ATH (#1 Optimal), COL (#2 Optimal), CIN (#1 GPP value), KCR (#2 GPP Value), BAL mini (#3 GPP value)
Weather: All Clear
Tonight is one of the most interesting slates we have seen all season and we really think it comes down to just a few spots despite its huge 13 game nature. One of the big reasons for this is that the Athletics are continuing their homestand at Las Vegas Ballpark where they are hosting the Colorado Rockies. This stadium was an absolute launch pad in the first 3 game set it hosted with 22 HRs, half of which got out because of the ideal hitting conditions. Tonight looks to be no different and as a result the Athletics have a projected total north of 8 with the Rockies at 5.8. No other team on this slate has a total projecting for more than 5 runs so this will easily be the most popular spot for the public to attack in DFS.
What makes this slate so interesting is not only do we have an incredible outlier offensive spot, we also have the pitcher equivalent with Jacob Misiorowski. Misiorowski has been on another level this season and is approaching prime Todd Gurley levels of just jam him in no matter his price. That said, he is priced all the way up to $12K on DraftKings now and $11.3K on Fanduel which begs the question “how do we find a way to play both spots”. Now the answer to that is not very straightforward and the answer likely lies somewhere in between, but that is what makes DFS great and we love the opportunity to think outside of the box with two incredible spots rivaling each other in everyone’s builds.
With this unprecedented situation we are going to take a slightly different angle to this slate providing the ideal cash game strategy and then some potential options in GPPs to help you make the best decision for the contests you like to play and the amount of risk you are comfortable with.
Cash Game Build
Starting with your cash game builds, you just have to lock in Misiorowski and move on. Despite the extremely high pricetags, he is still among the top guys in terms of point/$. He carries an extremely high floor which is what we look for in our cash game guys as he has now scored 30 or more points on DraftKings in 7 straight starts. His K rates are ridiculous as he is striking out LHH nearly 50% of the time with righties fanning at a 28% rate. The fact that he is a RHP with that high of a K rate against LHH will always put him in a great position to rack up the Ks with most lineups featuring more LHH than RHH against a righty. The xStats are some of the best we have ever seen with this large of a sample as he is holding batters from both sides to xISOs below .090 and xwOBAs below .265. Set and forget him in cash tonight.
In optimal builds, Trey Yesavage is your SP2 alongside Misiorowski. Yesavage is right up there in terms of point/$ and is projected to be the second highest owned guy. He has hit some bumps in his last few starts, but that looks like bad luck more than anything as his xStats are still stellar holding LHH to a line of .139/.308 with RHH slashing just .111/.235 over the last 30 days. He is likely to face 8 LHH tonight against the Yankees, 5 of which are striking out 25% of the time or more against RHP this season. Yesavage’s higher strike out split is to RHH, but he is still getting LHH at a respectable 22% clip which could grow closer to the 30% rate he owned against them over a much larger sample a year ago.
One other guy to consider for cash games would be Baltimore Orioles right hander Shane Baz. Baz is tied with Yesavage in terms of point/$ and saves you a little bit of salary if you need it as he is $700 less on DraftKings. Baz has K rates of around 20% to batters from both sides of the plate and does a good job of limiting power holding each split to xISOs below .180. The top half of this Padres lineup does present its challenges, but after the top 4 batters there is a pretty big drop off in the level of competition. If Baz can limit the damage of the top half he should coast through the bottom and be able to put up a more than respectable cash game score at his sub $8K pricetag.
In terms of cash games bats, if you are playing Misiorowski then you should realize that it will be impossible to get all of the top guys from the As. In reality, you likely will need to choose 1-2 of their studs and then fill around them with some of their value guys in addition to some of the Rockies, or other high point/$ plays. Looking at the As guys first, they get a matchup with Sean Sullivan who is making his major league debut after posting an ERA north of 5 in AAA this season. In terms of optimal cash game guys, Shea Langeliers and Brent Rooker are the two studs that seem to fit best with Misorowski. Tyler Soderstrom and Nick Kurtz do not come up as often, but both are viable and you can likely fit some combination of 2 of those 4 with the preferred order being Rooker, Langeiliers, Soderstrom, then Kurtz. In terms of cheaper value guys, Henry Bolte and Jeff McNeil stand out the most and can be mixed and matched with the studs.
On the other side of that game, the optimal build is spitting out 2 main Rockies with point/$ marks above the rest in Cole Carigg and Kyle Karros. Both are young players with decent upside in their game. Carigg is a big SB threat and has shown the ability to hit for average with some pop that will likely be boosted tonight. With his position eligibility, he is likely one of the highest owned players on the slate. Karros leaves little to be desired in terms of xStats, but has shown some pop and cannot be ignored in cash games where the name of the game is just trusting projections. On the next tier of Rockies value we have Willi Castro and Ezekial Tovar, Castro is coming up pretty regularly in optimal builds with some Tovar sprinkled in. Both Tovar (.229/.394) and Castro (xwOBA .330) have decent numbers against LHP and will face one tonight. The final Rockie to mention is Hunter Goodman (.273/.356) who has mashed LHP himself, but we see him more of a GPP one off pivot from Langeiliers tonight.
GPP Builds
In GPPs, if you play Misiorowski, you will likely want to either pair him with a lesser owned arm, or go with a lesser owned secondary stack with the top Athletics. Outside of Goodman, we would avoid the Rockies completely in GPPs.
In terms of GPP arms, one guy that sticks out is value option Nick Lodolo. Lodolo is atop the point/$ projections, but is looking at sub 5% ownership. He gets a matchup with the struggling Diamondbacks who were just shut out in back to back games against Miami Marlins pitching. Lodolo’s strikeout numbers do not jump off the page, but he is striking out RHH 20% of the time this season and could be working closer to the 25% mark he got them at over a much larger sample last season. Tonight he is set to face 8 of them and while his early season xStats against them are not great, this could be a get right spot for him as he held them to a very solid line of .168/.284 in 2025.
Another GPP pivot is more in the Yesavae/Baz range, but Roki Sasaki sure does look like he is starting to put it together a bit for the Dodgers as he has now logged back to back solid starts and has struck out 7 or more in 3 of his last 4. His season long xStats are still inflated from his tumultuous start, but over the last 30 days he has been lights out holding LHH to a line of .051/.236 with RHH slashing just .127/.239. The K rates are way up as well, getting LHH 37% of the time with RHH at 28%. The matchup is solid against a White Sox team that has cooled down a bit after a hot start. Sasaki seems to be getting lost in the mix tonight, but he is not far off from optimal in terms of point/$, but is projecting for single digit ownership.
The final pitcher we will mention that makes for a great contrarian build is Gage Jump of the Athletics. Obviously this is a risky play given the game environment and the Rockies implied total, that said Jump still does project decently well with his cheap price tag and certainly carries a lot of upside in this matchup. Jump is coming off two very solid starts and has had a lot of swing and miss in his game with impressive strikeout numbers all throughout the minor leagues. The Rockies have the second highest total on the slate, but that is more due to the weather than their actual ability. We have also seen them bust plenty of times in ideal hitting conditions at Coors Field. The problem for them is you cannot get one up into the wind if you are not even making contact with it. With 7 Rockies in tonight’s projected line up striking out 23% of the time or more against LHP this season, there is certainly a path for Jump to rack up the Ks. Even if he does let up a couple of HRs, if he can limit them to solo shots and have the Ks to offset, he can still be optimal.
In terms of GPP stacking options, if you play Misorowski and the A’s studs, you will need some value stacks to play off of them, and we think we have 3 very solid options. The first is the Cincinnati Reds with Dane Meyers (.227/.361), Spencer Steer (.387/.436), Eugenio Suarez (xISO .219), and Matt McLain (.188/.399) who are all sub $4.5K and hit LHP well which is exactly what they will face tonight in Eduardo Rodriguez. Noelvi Marte is near min price with a lot of upside as well. Finally Sal Stewart (.342/.414) looks solid as well, but may be a bit too pricey for the way we want to build tonight.
Another great value stack tonight with a number of solid options below $4K on DraftKings are the Kansas City Royals. In terms of projections, Kameron Misner, Isaac Collins, Carter Jensen, Salvador Perez, Jac Caglianone, and Vinnie Pasquantino are all great point/$ plays. They will be facing Tatsuya Imai who has had a rough go against LHH allowing them a line of .227/.405. Pasquantino (.222/.352 ‘25) and Caglianone (.230/.381) are the LHH with solid xStats against RHP. Misner, Collins, and Jensen will also hit from the left side and should see a boost.
One last quick, cheap little mini stack are the Baltimore Orioles’ LHH against Padres right hander Griffin Canning. Canning is allowing LHH to slash .228/.365. Colton Cowser (.247/.343), Samuel Basallo (.270/.393), and Jackson Holiday (.236/.367) are all sub $4K and mash RHP.
One last GPP strategy to consider this evening would be fading Misiorowski and going with two mid-range or value arms, allowing you to get to all of the top A’s bats instead of having to decide between them. The philosophy here is that even if Misiorowski does score 30 points, in order to fit him into your lineup you may have to play a value pitcher who is more likely to bust, use more punt plays in your lineup that are more likely to fail, or simply miss out on the A’s truly going nuclear and needing three or four of their top bats to be optimal. As good as Misiorowski has been, with an offense projecting like the A’s do tonight, there are certainly paths to winning without him. If he were to somehow bust completely, you would gain a massive edge on the field.
Best of luck tonight! Complex slate so feel free to fire away your questions in the Discord!