Pitching: Williams (SP1), Webb (SP2/FD Optimal), Sanchez (#1 GPP), Corbin (Deep GPP value)
Hitting: MIL (optimal/cash), ATH (#1 GPP), HOU (#2 GPP), BAL (#3 GPP), NYY (GPP leverage)
Chalk Fades: MIL LHH, Kyle Harrison, Gavin Williams in GPPs
Weather: All Clear
We have an interesting 8-game slate this evening as the Brewers and the Athletics are set to play in a very hitter-friendly Las Vegas Ballpark, typically the minor league home of the Athletics’ AAA affiliate, the Aviators. There are a few factors that make this ballpark quite hitter-friendly. For one, it is at a higher-than-typical elevation, roughly 2,000 ft. It is not quite to the same level as Coors Field at 5,000+ ft., but still much higher than the league average. Secondly, it is looking to be very hot and windy there this evening, and much like Sutter Health Park, without the large grandstand setup around the field like a typical major league stadium, wind is much more receptive and has a greater influence on play. The one deterrent here is that Las Vegas Ballpark is one of the larger outfields in all of professional baseball, 340 feet down both lines and 415 feet to dead center. With the winds likely howling anywhere from 15-20 mph straight out and out to left, there is a significant boost to HR and run production in general. That is baked into the current projection along with the Brewers’ implied total of 6 runs. More on them and that game to come.
Now, the reason we brought up that game first is to explain the strategy that most seem to be taking this evening. Given that the optimal build has you stacking as many Brewers as possible, it makes it quite difficult to pay up for studs anywhere else, even at pitcher with Phillies ace Christopher Sanchez on the slate. This opens up an interesting opportunity as we can get Sanchez at less ownership than we typically would on a slate this size, more on that in a bit.
With the cash/optimal build trying to jam as many Brewers as possible into your lineup, our two optimal arms are in the middle tier of the price range, the first being Cleveland Guardians right-hander Gavin Williams. Williams is your top point/$ arm on DraftKings, where his salary is just below $9K. Williams has been very solid this season and has shown some pretty significant strikeout upside with a few double-digit strikeout performances and another number of outings in the 7-9 strikeout range. That aligns with his K rates as he is getting batters from both sides just around that elite 30% mark. The xStats on Williams do give us some caution, though, especially against LHH who are slashing .223/.323 off him. Against RHH he has been a bit better, but while a line against of .155/.324 is decent, it is nowhere near the elite numbers we like to see when locking a pitcher into our lineups, especially if they are due to be one of the chalkier guys on the slate like Williams is tonight. What keeps Williams in the optimal spot here is his strikeout upside that can offset any runs he allows. Just look at his last start, for example, where he did allow 3 ER, but with 6 strikeouts and not much damage around those runs, he was still able to log a very respectable score of 19 points on DraftKings. In GPPs, however, we have a hard time eating this much chalk when his xStats look the way they do, especially given that he will be facing a tough New York Yankees lineup for the second time in as many starts. As a result, we would pass on Williams in GPPs and do like a few of the Yankees’ LHH in a leverage stack with Trent Grisham (.208/.361), Ben Rice (.285/.412), Cody Bellinger (.195/.391), and Jazz Chisholm (.268/.356 ’25) all with solid numbers against RHP either this year or a year ago. One other guy we want to mention is rookie LHH Spencer Jones, who was just recalled with the Judge injury. Jones is one of the more polarizing prospects in all of baseball, as his insane K rates but equally insane power numbers leave scouts perplexed on what he might be as a big leaguer. The good news is we do not need to predict beyond tonight, and tonight is as good a time as ever for Jones to run into his first big league HR at near-min price and little ownership. He also has SB upside, swiping nearly 30 bags in the minors last season.
Your optimal pair with Williams in cash games this evening is San Francisco Giants right-hander Logan Webb. Webb is just a hair behind Williams in terms of point/$ on DraftKings and is in a league of his own over on FanDuel, making him the clear optimal choice there as well. Webb is making his third start back after missing a few weeks on the IL with a knee issue. Webb was eased into his first start back, but in his last outing he looked like his vintage self, throwing 7 scoreless innings of 1-hit ball in a dominant effort against a very solid Brewers lineup. Webb has not really wowed with his K numbers this year, but still has steady rates to batters from both sides, getting each right around 20%. The xStats are solid as well, holding both to xISOs below .150 and xwOBAs below .320. The matchup is not the easiest as he will face one of the more surprisingly productive offenses in all of baseball this season in the Washington Nationals. He will also likely face 6 LHH, but while that is his slightly weaker split, he has a very solid track record of limiting their power and has not gone a full season in his career allowing them an xISO any higher than .160. The lack of strikeout upside leaves some to be desired in GPPs, but if he is as efficient as he was last time out, he can more than smash his mid-tier price on both sites, especially on FanDuel with a QS bonus up for grabs. He is also the lesser-owned of the two when compared to Williams.
Next up, we have our top GPP option tonight in Christopher Sanchez. Sanchez is the anchor to our GPP strategy tonight as we think building with him should make you unique, as it forces you to make decisions on which Brewers you can afford or lead you to fading them altogether. Now, we want to be clear on this: Sanchez is still likely to be around 30% owned, but given his recent form and upside, the fact that he is not the highest-owned player on the slate by a wide margin makes him a very solid GPP play. Sanchez has been absolutely lights out, and the xStats and K rates back up just about everything you see on the surface, fanning LHH at an absurd 37% rate with RHH at a 27% clip. Sanchez will be facing a number of RHH from the Blue Jays this evening, and while that is his worst split, he is still holding them to a line of .147/.293. There is also a very significant drop-off in this Jays lineup with a number of injuries. If he can find his way around Springer, Vlad, and Okamoto, he should cruise. Given his extremely high floor, we like him in cash games as well and would pair him with Webb if we had to choose one of Webb or Williams.
After Williams, Webb, and Sanchez, there is a pretty big drop-off in terms of trustable arms tonight, so in cash games, and even small-field or SE-entry GPPs, we likely would not stray from some combo of those 3, with Sanchez/Webb likely to be the most contrarian combo. For your deep GPP build, MME pools, or if you are just a downright psychopath, we do have one more play for consideration. That would be Toronto Blue Jays journeyman left-hander Patrick Corbin. On the surface, Corbin against a lineup like the Phillies is downright terrifying, but if we dig a little deeper we see a small potential path for him to be the GPP hero of the night. For starters, he is just $6K on DraftKings and allows you to pay up for all of the stud bats you would like. The discounted tag also has him as one of the top point/$ plays, so we have the projections on our side as well. The K rates will not wow you, but he will be facing 5 batters that have above-league-average K rates against LHP. Finally, the xStats show he is more than capable of shutting down the main power threats that make this lineup go in Harper, Schwarber, and more recently Marsh. Against LHH, Corbin is holding them to an xISO of just .108 and in his last 100-pitch sample he is holding them to a line of just .064/.288. While neither is that big of a sample, he did hold LHH to xISOs below .135 in both ’25 and ’24. Against RHH, he is allowing a line of .198/.361, which definitely gives some advantage to the batter. That said, with Trea Turner and JT Realmuto struggling a bit, there is only one RHH in tonight’s lineup with an xISO above .155 this year in Adolis Garcia. All in all, it takes a lot of stones to click Patrick Corbin’s name in the year 2026, but we would be willing to bet if we presented this as a blind résumé, you would be seriously considering him as a solid GPP value on a slate lacking pitching depth.
On to the offense, and we start with the Milwaukee Brewers, who go from one hitters’ paradise to another as they are fresh off of a weekend series at Coors Field in Colorado. We already mentioned the weather and park implications, so let’s get right into the matchup. The Brewers will be facing A’s left-hander Jeffery Springs. Springs actually has some pretty decent left-on-left numbers, allowing them a line of .186/.303, and over his last 30 days he has really limited their damage, allowing a line of just .082/.274. It is the RHH that causes Springs the most problems, and while he did have a decent start to the year against them, over the last 30 days he is allowing them to slash .234/.375. His fastball has been hit hard by RHH all season and could cause some issues for him tonight, as he throws it nearly 44% of the time. Given the splits, we would much rather side with the Brewers’ RHH, with William Contreras (.203/.361), Andrew Vaughn (.229/.399 ’25), and Jackson Chourio (xwOBA .343 ’25) all posting decent stats against LHP either this season or over a much larger 2025 sample. Brice Turang (.116/.308), Christian Yelich (.133/.278), and Garrett Mitchell (.040/.265) will all hit from the left side and have some pretty rough numbers against LHP this season. In terms of projections, Joey Ortiz, Luis Rengifo, Andrew Vaughn, Blake Perkins, and Jackson Chourio stand out the most. With the LHH looking the way they do, we would stay away from most, if not all, of them. Turang is the only LHH that comes up in the optimal build as SB upside helps his projection. In GPPs, we don’t feel the need to jam in overowned value players who are really just optimal because of their cheap price and the team’s high total, so we would stick to the 3 top RHH or just fade this offense altogether and hope they bust.
Now, much like a lot of slates with an attractive hitting environment, there is always a lesser-owned, overlooked side of that game which is always fun to exploit in GPP contests. Tonight that would be the Athletics. They do get a very tough matchup with Kyle Harrison, who has emerged as one of the best arms in baseball this season. That said, while Harrison does boast high strikeout upside, he also relies on flyouts quite a bit and is significantly above league average in AIR% and below league average in GB%. Given the strong winds and altitude, those fly balls may have the juice to get out this evening, which is likely why they still have an implied total of 5 runs despite the tough matchup with Harrison. There are no poking holes in Harrison’s xStats this season so far—they are that good—but what we can do is identify what he likes to throw most and match that up with the A’s, who tend to get the ball in the air. Harrison has one of the heaviest fastball approaches in baseball, throwing it nearly 60% of the time to batters from both sides. As a result, Nick Kurtz (.267/.384), Shea Langeliers (.226/.346), Brent Rooker (.369/.317), and Colby Thomas (.377/.430 ’25) are all in play with solid numbers against lefty fastballs this year or in a larger ’25 sample. Henry Bolte and Darnell Hernaiz are also solid point/$ value options to consider depending on your build.
Another GPP option is the Houston Astros against Los Angeles Angels right-hander Grayson Rodriguez. Rodriguez has had a serious fall from grace after once being one of the most highly touted pitching prospects in all of baseball. The xStats are ugly as he is allowing LHH to slash .288/.447, including .454/.520 against his fastball, his most-thrown pitch. RHH, on the other hand, are slashing .221/.338. This is a dream spot for Yordan Alvarez (.384/.478, .471/.525 vs. FB), who should be in your cash game lineups tonight with ownership projecting around 20% or higher. The full Astros stack, however, is less popular, making them a nice choice in GPPs with an implied total around 5. If we are picking on the fastball against Rodriguez, Jeremy Pena (.324/.437 ’25), Christian Walker (.234/.363), Isaac Paredes (.194/.355 ’25), and Jose Altuve (.268/.368 ’25) all stand out with solid numbers in the early going this year or over a much larger ’25 sample. The projections also like LaMonte Wade, Cam Smith, and Taylor Trammell as nice point/$ value options.
The final GPP stack to consider is the Baltimore Orioles against Seattle Mariners right-hander Emerson Hancock. Hancock has allowed a lot of damage to LHH, allowing them a line of .218/.334 this season, including a line of .284/.338 against his fastball, a pitch he throws 43% of the time to them. Gunnar Henderson (.206/.336), Colton Cowser (.243/.398), and Jackson Holliday (.217/.364 ’25) will all hit from the left side with solid numbers against righty fastballs. Emerson does not throw his fastball as much to RHH, but he still does it 30% of the time and is allowing a line of .396/.398 against it. That makes Pete Alonso (.455/.478), Blaze Alexander (.261/.431), and Coby Mayo (xwOBA .374) solid plays as well with solid numbers against righty fastballs. Taylor Ward is off to a slow start this year, but boasted a line of .316/.389 against righty fastballs in a large ’25 sample.