Pending Injury News: None
The Edge: KAT, Dylan Harper, Mikal Bridges/OG Anunoby
We head to New York for Game 3 of the NBA finals with the Knicks holding a 2-0 lead over the San Antonio Spurs. We expect San Antonio to come out as the aggressor, as this is as close to a must-win as they can get if they want any hope of turning this series around. It should be a fun one, so let’s get to it!
We will start with the Knicks and their star guard Jalen Brunson. He played 37 minutes to go with a massive 34% usage rate in Game 2. He can take over the game at any moment, though he doesn’t project as well as Wemby or KAT in terms of PT/$. The ceiling will be there, and if ownership is down compared to the other studs, so we’re fine on going with Brunson. Speaking of Karl-Anthony Towns, he has had a fantastic series so far and is holding his own against Wemby. He continues to stuff the stat sheet and has shown a pretty consistent ceiling over the first two games. If he can avoid the foul trouble again, we think he has another successful night and is one of our top captain options along with Brunson. Josh Hart struggled with foul trouble in Game 2 and only played 18 minutes as a result. We know he’s capable of a lot more, he just needs to stay out of foul trouble. He can fill up the stat sheet with the best of them and doesn’t need to score the ball to have a big night, as we saw in Game 1. Despite the struggle in Game 2, he still projects as one of the more optimal options on both sites and should see heavy ownership. Mikal Bridges and OG Anunoby were both excellent in Game 2. They didn’t have a high usage rate, but they can do a little bit of everything and don’t need the ball in their hands constantly. It also helped that they played heavy minutes as Bridges played a whopping 40 minutes and Anunoby played 36 minutes. They look to be pretty popular on FD, but they aren’t seeing the same high ownership on DK. We like them as GPP options there, and they are still usable on FD as well. Jose Alvarado and Mitch Robinson project well on DK, while Miles McBride and Landry Shamet project better on FD. If you think KAT or Hart struggle with foul trouble, then Shamet and Robinson will be your guy. Robinson also will be the guy who benefits if KAT gets into foul trouble, which is always good to keep in mind. Shamet could also play more since the lineup with 5-shooters has been so successful for the Knicks, so even if Hart isn’t in foul trouble, Shamet might get a bit more time with how hot he continues to be.
On the Spurs side, it starts with Victor Wembanyama. With their season on the line, the Spurs will need a Wemby to have one of his massive games. He played 40 minutes in Game 2 and had a 33% usage rate, and it was almost 40% in the second half alone. Wemby needs to dominate if the Spurs want a chance, and we could see them attempt to get Wemby easier stuff at the rim. He’s the top stud option who offers the highest ceiling by a good margin. Stephon Castle and D’Aaron Fox both need to be better if the Spurs want to make a comeback. Castle really struggled in Game 2 and was benched in the 4th quarter for the most part. He doesn’t project all that well today either, but the ownership is low compared to the other studs. If you want to bet on the talent and he bounces back, we think he could be worth a shot in GPPs, though we aren’t too high on it. Fox projects for similar ownership, and while his ceiling isn’t quite as high as Castle he still projects for mid-30s minutes. We prefer Fox to Castle if you have to choose, and he did get more of the ball handling in Game 2 as Castle was struggling. Dylan Harper is still cheap enough that we really like him, and he can even be a cheap captain/MVP option if you wanted to stuff in a bunch of studs, as we’d lean into him continuing to play at least 28 minutes a game, and he could tick up past 30 with how good he’s been. We’re buying this being real, and Johnson did not hesitate to giving him minutes over Castle in Game 2 when it was crunch time. Devin Vassell and Julian Champagnie are solid in the midrange, with Vassell being the preferred option with the higher ceiling, though both guys have taken turns when it comes to having the bigger game. We prefer Vassell slightly, but Champagnie is capable of getting hot from the 3-point line and having a big game at lower ownership, while Vassell has been handling more of the secondary playmaking and ball handling, but both these guys could get looks as the Knicks are susceptible to catch-and-shoot 3s. We wouldn’t fault you for going with Champagnie over Vassell if it fits better. For value, we have Luke Kornet and Keldon Johnson as options, though it isn’t anything to get excited about. We can see the Spurs utilizing a tighter rotation with the series basically on the line, with the exception being foul trouble or injury. Johnson did get his minutes pushed up in Game 2, but he didn’t really do much with them. If you wanted to get different in large field, the Spurs could opt to play some Kornet with Wemby, which would allow them to put someone with size on KAT still and let Wemby roam a little bit more, and not have him getting pulled away from the rim as much. They haven’t shown anything to suggest this, but if you need to punt a spot, Kornet makes sense if you wanted to try and predict this being an adjustment the Spurs look to make.
Good luck tonight, everyone!