Pitching: Misiorowski (SP1), deGrom (SP2), Cease (GPP 1), Weathers (GPP 2), Tolle (GPP 3), Leahy (Value)
Hitting: DET (Optimal), WSH (GPP 1), ATL (GPP 2), CHC (GPP 3), SD (Value)
Weather: All clear
Let’s get into an absolutely packed Monday slate!
The optimal pitcher for this slate is none other than the Brewers’ Jacob Misiorowski, facing the Mets. The MLB’s top pitcher this season continues to hold the highest upside of any pitcher while providing a sustainable floor. Misiorowski holds absurd strikeout rates of 48% against lefties and 30% against righties. This matchup plays right into his favor, as the Mets lineup will have six batters hitting from the left side this evening. He just isn’t someone we want to avoid despite the price and chalkiness.
Your second optimal pitching option is Jacob deGrom. While he has been hit hard at times this season, he’s made some adjustments as of late, throwing his slider more frequently, and it’s helped him on both sides of the plate. Over the last 30, he’s allowing .101/.252 to lefties with a 38% strikeout rate and .091/.272 to righties while striking them out 30% of the time. He faces a White Sox lineup that has power but can strike out chasing. The team’s most dangerous lefties, Murakami and Montgomery, are both striking out at over a 30% rate against righties. It is difficult to jam both Miso and deGrom into the same lineup, but it is doable with the offensive value on this slate. If deciding between the two, both are projecting for almost identical ownership, so just go with the one that fits your build best.
Next up is the red-hot Dylan Cease, who takes the mound for Toronto as they host the Rays. Cease has the same point/$ projection as both deGrom and Misiorowski but is projecting for about 10% less ownership, making him a fantastic leverage play. Over his last two starts, Cease has allowed no runs, just four total hits, and has piled up 20 strikeouts. Over his last 30, Cease has held lefties to a .054 xISO and .239 xwOBA with a 39% strikeout rate while holding righties to .069/.225 and also striking them out 39% of the time. Play Cease with full confidence here as he looks to continue racking up dominant starts.
Left-handed Yankees pitcher Ryan Weathers takes on the Pirates and is our top projected points/$ pitcher at 2.3. Weathers continues to struggle against lefties but has improved a bit against righties, holding them to .099/.335 over the last 30, which is the bulk of Pittsburgh’s lineup. He’s also striking out batters on both sides of the plate at over a 25% rate. The Pirates’ lineup consists of five batters who are striking out at over a 22% rate when facing left-handed pitchers. Weathers is great in both cash and GPP contests tonight with a lower-than-expected ownership projection despite being the top point/$ guy.
Another GPP option is Red Sox lefty Payton Tolle. Tolle is one of the top point/$ guys but looks to have the lowest ownership of the others around him. This matchup is really intriguing for Tolle, as his reverse split is actually his much stronger split, holding RHH to a line of .127/.262 and striking them out at an elite 29% rate. Tonight, the O’s are sending eight batters to the plate who will be hitting from the right side, giving Tolle fantastic upside.
Our last option is a value play in Cardinals pitcher Kyle Leahy. This is another guy who’s looked better as of late, allowing .088/.315 to lefties and .139/.178 to righties over the last 30. He’s also striking righties out at a 26% rate, setting him up nicely against an Angels lineup that consists of seven righties. Considering the priciness of those top pitching options, Leahy is a nice value option to have.
Shifting gears to the bats, there are a ton of amazing hitting environments tonight, providing implied totals of five or more for 13 teams, which is rather unheard of. As a result, there are a ton of great hitting options tonight, making it a great slate for multiple entries. Ownership is also fairly spread out, so we can attack the best projecting plays without worrying too much about chalk.
Your optimal stack tonight is the Tigers, who get a matchup with Jameson Taillon on a summer night in Wrigley with the wind blowing out. At nearly six runs, the Tigers have the second-highest implied total on the slate behind just the Cubs. Combine that with their affordable price tags, and you get one of the best point/$ stacks we have seen this season, with almost the entire lineup in play from a projections standpoint. The matchup is great as well, with Taillon allowing .307/.406 to lefties and .226/.307 to righties. Kevin McGonigle, Dillon Dingler, Colt Keith, Riley Greene, Spencer Torkelson, Kerry Carpenter, and Matt Vierling are all viable. Greene and Dingler are our favorite plays of the stack. We would caution you with Vierling, Carpenter, and Keith, who are pinch-hit risks. Overall, this will be the most popular stack on the slate, and in GPPs, fading the ownership is completely viable. That said, being strategic around the stack and avoiding the pinch-hit risks could help give you leverage despite playing the highest-owned stack.
The top GPP stack tonight is the Nats in Coors as they face Rockies lefty Kyle Freeland. The Nats are another team projecting for just under six runs tonight, but the big difference with them is the pricing. The Nats likely have the highest upside of any team in this matchup, but DraftKings has made it quite difficult to get to them, which is driving down their ownership a bit. The matchup is solid, as Freeland has gotten crushed on both sides of the plate this season. James Wood, Curtis Mead, Dylan Crews, CJ Abrams, Andrés Chaparro, Jacob Young, and Nasim Nuñez have had the most success against his pitch mix. Harry Ford is also a nice value play here.
Another solid GPP stack tonight is the Chicago Cubs, who will be the lower-owned side of the Wrigley wind game against the Tigers this evening despite having the higher implied total. In fact, the Cubs have the highest implied total on the slate, and their ownership is staying in the single digits. Jack Flaherty has been reliant on fly-ball outs more than ever this season, with a well-above-average AIR rate, which could cause him some trouble tonight. Pete Crow-Armstrong, Michael Busch, Alex Bregman, Seiya Suzuki, Ian Happ, and Dansby Swanson are all viable. Michael Conforto hits RHP very well but is a pinch-hit risk.
The Braves face Padres pitcher JP Sears. While it’s a small sample size this season, Sears’ numbers were bad against both sides of the plate last season as well. Drake Baldwin, Matt Olson, Michael Harris, Austin Riley, Ozzie Albies, and Jorge Mateo have had the most success against Sears’ pitches. Jim Jarvis and Joey Bart are values to consider for the stack as well.
Our last stack is a value play with the San Diego Padres, facing Braves pitcher Bryce Elder, who’s allowing .290/.404 to lefties and .271/.420 to righties over the last 30. Fernando Tatis Jr., Jackson Merrill, Manny Machado, Ty France, Gavin Sheets, Xander Bogaerts, Jake Cronenworth, and Miguel Andujar are all viable plays and nice values for the stack.
Good luck, everyone!