Pitching: Schlittler (SP1), Roupp (SP2), Drohan (GPP)
Hitting: LAD (Optimal), HOU (GPP 1), ATL (GPP 2), SF (Leverage), SD (Value), NYY (Leverage)
Chalk Fades: Kevin Gausman, Giffin Jax
Weather: Possible rain in HOU/WSH
We’ve got a nice seven-game Monday slate to get into!
The optimal pitcher for the slate is Yankees ace Cam Schlittler. Coming off a damaging start to his Cy Young campaign against the Tigers last week, Schlittler looks to rebound here against the Rays. While he’s allowed .156/.291 to lefties, he’s striking left-handed hitters out at a 31% clip while holding righties to .129/.256 and striking them out 28% of the time. Lock Schlittler in as the slate’s top pitching option, especially for cash.
Next, we have Giants pitcher Landed Roupp hosting the Blue Jays. Roupp has very impressive x stats compared to his general iso and wOBA stats, holding lefties to .088/.310 and righties to .096/.260. He’s also striking both out at over a 25% rate. Now facing a Toronto lineup with underwhelming numbers against right-handed pitchers, we can lock Roupp in as the slate’s second pitcher and could be a nice pivot if you want to avoid Schlittler’s cost.
Brewers pitcher Shane Drohan gives us a nice cheaper third option, who we project to have low ownership as he faces the Cardinals. Drohan holds a 21% strikeout rate against lefties while allowing .114/.288 and a 26% strikeout rate against righties while allowing .131/.283. He faces a Cardinals lineup with six righties, giving a little bit of risk to power but also more swinging strikeouts and K upside. The pitching for this slate is scarce, making us have to make clear stands on guys and we prefer these three to Griffin Jax and Kevin Gausman.
Finally we have Eric Lauer who is a fantastic value play and as one of the top point/$ guys on the slate in a great matchup with the Rockies.
Speaking of Griffin Jax, we wanted to mention him in the pitching section as chalk to fade based on his current ownership projection. In terms of point/$ he is one of the top guys on the slate which is driving the ownership up. That said, the xStats against him are pretty rough, and we think the Yankees make for a good leverage stack. Jax is allowing LHH to slash .214/.372 with RHH at .193/.328. Cody Bellinger, Trent Grisham, Ben Rice, Jazz Chisholm, and Paul Goldschmidt are all great options. Ryan McMahon is a decent value piece as well with great numbers against righty fastballs.
The optimal hitting stack today comes from the Dodgers, facing Rockies pitcher Kyle Freeland, who’s allowing .144/.297 to lefties and .211/.376 to righties. Dodgers RHH’s Andy Pages, Mookie Betts, Teoscar Hernández, and Miguel Rojas are set up best. Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, and Max Muncy have all had success against his pitch mix against lefties and are viable plays as well.
Our next hitting stack is the Houston Astros, who have the Nationals and Miles Mikolas. The weather is definitely something to watch here. This season, Mikolas has allowed numbers of .197/.344 to lefties and .221/.328 to righties. Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, Isaac Paredes, Christian Walker, Cam Smith, Taylor Trammell, and Braden Shewmake have all had success against Mikolas’s most frequently thrown pitches and are all viable. Alvarez is our favorite play of the stack and possibly the entire slate, as he completely crushes the pitcher’s top three most thrown pitches.
The Braves face Mets pitcher Freddy Peralta. While allowing .152/.304 to them, Peralta is throwing fastballs at a 53% rate to lefties. This is not a good recipe against Atlanta lefties, who crush the pitch. Michael Harris, Ozzie Albies, Matt Olson, Drake Baldwin, and Dominic Smith are all viable. Righty Austin Riley is viable as well, considering his success against fastballs, which Peralta throws at a 53% rate to righties. Olson and Harris are our favorites.
Our next stack is a leverage one against Blue Jays pitcher Kevin Gausman, who is protected to be highly owned. He has allowed .152/.305 to left-handed hitters and .179/.297 to righties. Luis Arraez, Casey Schmitt, Heliot Ramos, Rafael Devers, Willy Adames, Bryce Eldridge, and Drew Cavanaugh are all viable. Devers and Adames have had the most success against Gausman’s pitch mix and are our favorite plays of the stack.
Lastly, the Padres look to have some nice value against Diamondbacks pitcher Brandon Pfaadt, who allows .241/.350 to lefties and .155/.331 to righties. Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Gavin Sheets, and Jackson Merrill look the best overall for the stack. Jake Cronenworth, Ty France, and Miguel Andujar are really nice values to consider as well.
Good luck, everyone!