You can currently find this bet for -113 on Tailgate. We like it to -145.
The United States is a pretty bad matchup for Belgium. When Belgium was getting outplayed by Senegal, much of it was their speed down the flanks and their ability to turn a turnover into a quick counter on the flanks. With guys like Pulisic, Robinson, and Dest who can fly up and down the flanks, this should be a spot the US are looking to hit, and their overall speed on the pitch is not good for Belgium, who want to slow things down and find ways to kill you with big buildups, and aren’t great at playing in a high-tempo game. While Belgium probably sees more of the ball than any of the US’s opponents so far, the quality the Americans have shown on the ball this tournament is encouraging, meaning they don’t need 60% possession to string together enough chances; they can hurt Belgium with a few quality ones instead. We like the hosts to take advantage of this and go through to the quarterfinals. Lock in the USA!