Pitching: Henderson (Optimal), Cabrera (GPP #1), Bassitt (GPP #2), Montas (value)
Hitting: CLE (Optimal), MIL (GPP #1), CHC (GPP #2), TOR (GPP #3)
Weather: All good
The optimal pitcher on this slate is Logan Henderson, who takes on the Washington Nationals. He has K rates of 31% against LHH and 40% against RHH. That should be enough to overcome a team that doesn’t strike out much, with only three hitters carrying K rates above 22%. The x-stats are impressive, as his changeup to lefties has helped shut that side down with a rate of (.071/.288). He dominates righties to the tune of (.035/.227). This is the ideal cash games option to use.
The next pitcher to discuss is Edward Cabrera, who faces the New York Yankees. He has K rates of 23% against LHH and 25% against RHH. He gets to face six hitters with K rates above 24%, which is very solid. The x-stats don’t lie either, considering lefties can only manage a rate of (.164/.340), and righties aren’t much better with (.142/.291). The Yankees have struggled so far this series, and we like that to continue here.
Chris Bassitt is next up on our list as he takes on the Kansas City Royals. He has K rates of 21% against LHH and 24% against RHH. He will face five hitters with K rates above 18%, which isn’t ideal but still enough for Bassitt to rack up some strikeouts. The x-stats are what really make this play strong, as he holds LHH to a rate of (.174/.340) and RHH to (.142/.299). This is an excellent spot for GPPs.
The value pitcher on this slate is Frankie Montas, who takes on the San Francisco Giants. He has K rates of 15% against LHH and 23% against RHH. It helps that he gets to face six hitters with K rates above 23%. The x-stats are solid, as he dominates righties to the tune of (.178/.345). Against lefties, his top two pitches have been elite, holding them to no more than a (.195/.333) rate. This is a great way to free up salary.
The optimal stack on this slate is the Cleveland Guardians, who take on José Ureña. His sinker has been crushed by both sides of the plate, so that’s where we’ll target. Steven Kwan (.412 xwOBA), Daniel Schneemann (.230/.373), José Ramírez (.225/.352), Kyle Manzardo (.333 ISO), Carlos Santana (.340 xwOBA), Bo Naylor (.368/.482), and Gabriel Arias (.355 xwOBA) have had the most success against that pitch. Our favorite options are Ramírez and Manzardo.
The next stack to discuss is the Milwaukee Brewers, who face Brad Lord. His fastball doesn’t get crushed, but it also isn’t great, and this Brewers team can be opportunistic against fastball pitchers. Brice Turang (.369 xwOBA), William Contreras (.372 xwOBA), Andrew Vaughn (.351/.408), Christian Yelich (.351 xwOBA), Isaac Collins (.365 wOBA), Brandon Lockridge (.395 xwOBA), Joey Ortiz (.186 ISO), and Blake Perkins (.300 ISO/.462 wOBA) are the hitters to target. Our favorite options are Vaughn and Perkins.
The Chicago Cubs also make our list, as they face Brandon Young. His fastball gets crushed by lefties, and his splitter struggles against righties. Michael Busch (.391/.446), Kyle Tucker (.375/.467), and Pete Crow-Armstrong (.305/.350) are the LHH to consider. Seiya Suzuki (.612/.575), Carson Kelly (.492 wOBA), and Dansby Swanson (.243 xISO) are the RHH to consider. Our favorite plays are Tucker and Suzuki.
The last stack to consider is the Toronto Blue Jays, who take on Seth Lugo. He struggles with his fastball against both sides of the plate, which is where we will attack him. Joey Loperfido (.265/.418), Vladimir Guerrero (.182/.425), Bo Bichette (.192/.394), Addison Barger (.214 xISO), Alejandro Kirk (.277/.461), Ty France (.25/.393), and Daulton Varsho (.427/.402) have had the most success against that pitch. Our favorite options are Kirk and Loperfido.