Optimal: Larson, Bell, Briscoe, Chastain, Busch, Bowman, Jones, Gilliland
GPP: Hamlin, Blaney, Byron, Elliott, Reddick, Keselowski, Wallace, Gragson, Nemechek
FD Only: Allmendinger, McDowell, Haley
Short flat tracks like Iowa always put a premium on track position, and with 350 laps on tap, nailing the dominators is the key to winning DFS this week. Practice and qualifying gave us a clear look at who’s fast early and who has long-run speed, but this race has the potential for strategy swings and late movement through the field. Here’s how I’m attacking the slate.
Track position is going to dictate everything this week, and Chase Briscoe comes in as the top dominator candidate. He showed the best short-run speed in practice and has a car that can control the early part of this race if he gets out front.
Right behind him sits the HMS duo of William Byron and Kyle Larson, but I’m going to be underweight here. While they looked great on the long runs in practice, this hasn’t been their best track type over the past couple years. After examining practice more closely, I actually prefer Chase Elliott from the Hendrick camp. He ranked top four in both short- and long-run speed and will carry lower ownership than Byron or Larson, making him my favorite Hendrick play for DFS leverage.
Ryan Blaney is my pick to win the race and my favorite to dominate the later stages. He should be working to gain long-run speed prior to the start of this one, which is usually his strength. If they can improve just a tad, he could run away with this one.
If you’re looking for GPP leverage among dominators, Brad Keselowski is a strong play. His car had top-five speed in practice and could sneak into the mix if he can maintain track position early.
The Toyota duo of Denny Hamlin and Christopher Bell also remain very live dominator options. Iowa fits them perfectly, and even though practice and qualifying didn’t pop off the page, both are the type to steadily work their way forward and improve as the track comes to them in the second half of the race.
When it comes to core plays, Ross Chastain and Kyle Busch are the top place differential options on the slate. I’ve got much more confidence in Ross this week, as he rolled out a top 10–12 car in practice and should steadily move his way forward into a strong finish.
Kyle Busch is a different story—he wrecked hard in practice and will roll out a backup car from the tail end of the field. He’s still one of the safest plays on the slate starting dead last because even a conservative top-20 run will crush value. There’s always the slight risk that the backup car doesn’t have the same speed and he gets trapped a lap down early. Still, with that floor and upside combo, he remains a core piece in my builds.
The value pool this week really leaves a lot to be desired, with no true standouts. Todd Gilliland, Noah Gragson, and John Hunter Nemechek are all viable options, but none of them move the needle in a big way.
If I had to give one a slight edge, it would be Gilliland, who’s quietly posted a 16.5 average finish over the last eight races on short flat tracks and feels the most stable of the bunch.
On FanDuel, where finishing position is more important than place differential, Justin Haley, Michael McDowell, and AJ Allmendinger all deserve a look as well. Track position could be everything today, and all three are capable of holding their starting spots or even sneaking a spot or two better, which is enough to pay off their tags.