Pitching: Rodon (Optimal), Bradish (GPP #1), Sheehan (GPP #2), Gallen (value)
Hitting: ARI (Optimal), NYY (GPP #1), CIN (GPP #2), STL (GPP #3)
Weather: Perfect
The optimal pitcher on this slate is Carlos Rodón, who takes on the Minnesota Twins. He has K rates of 29% against LHH and 25% against RHH. He gets to face six hitters with K rates above 20%, which gives him upside to work with. The expected stats look good as well, as he holds LHH to the tune of (.134/.268) and RHH to (.146/.297). He is the ideal cash game play everywhere.
Kyle Bradish is next on our list as he faces the Chicago White Sox. He has K rates of 29% against LHH and 35% against RHH. Like Rodón, he also faces six hitters with K rates above 20%. He holds lefties to (.108/.320) and righties to (.147/.209). He is one of our favorite plays on the slate.
Emmet Sheehan is on our radar as he faces the Philadelphia Phillies. He has K rates of 29% against both sides of the plate. He also faces six batters with K rates above 20%. The expected stats look solid in this spot, as he holds lefties to (.167/.301) and righties to (.157/.299). This is one of the more interesting plays on the slate.
The value lies with Zac Gallen, who takes on the San Francisco Giants. He has a K rate of 19% against LHH and holds them to (.060/.291). Against RHH, he has a K rate of 31% and holds them to (.136/.321). He also gets to face six hitters with K rates above 23%. This is a great way to free up salary to spend elsewhere.
The optimal team on this slate is the Arizona Diamondbacks, who face Kai-Wei Teng and his poor fastball. Geraldo Perdomo (.355 xwOBA), Ketel Marte (.391/.482), Corbin Carroll (.305/.401), Gabriel Moreno (.216/.354), Blaze Alexander (.213 xISO), Alek Thomas (.245/.357), and Jake McCarthy (.239/.370) have all had success against that pitch. Our favorite options are Carroll and Thomas.
The New York Yankees are the next stack we like. They face a heavy fastball thrower in Simeon Woods Richardson. Trent Grisham (.298/.415), Ben Rice (.327/.430), Aaron Judge (.532/.512), Cody Bellinger (.208/.338), Giancarlo Stanton (.327/.428), Jazz Chisholm (.370/.419), Austin Wells (.279/.363), and Ryan McMahon (.322/.446) have had success against the fastball. Our favorite options are Judge and Stanton.
Next up are the Cincinnati Reds, who take on Matthew Liberatore and his terrible fastball. TJ Friedl (.414 wOBA), Noelvi Marte (.268 xISO), Miguel Andujar (.198/.372), Austin Hays (.559/.605), Tyler Stephenson (.332/.502), and Matt McLain (.205 xISO) have had the most success against that pitch. Elly De La Cruz is also viable due to his stolen base upside. Our favorite options are Hays and Stephenson.
Lastly, we turn to the other side of that game, as Zack Littell also has a very poor fastball. We like the St. Louis Cardinals for our final stack. Brendan Donovan (.222/.405), Alec Burleson (.292/.411), Wilson Contreras (.350/.452), Lars Nootbaar (.208/.394), Nolan Arenado (.203/.335), Nolan Gorman (.266/.352), and Jordan Walker (.222 xISO) have had the most success against that pitch. Ivan Herrera is also viable given his moderate success against RHP. Our favorite options are Nootbaar and Gorman.