Must-Haves: Herbert, Meyers
Optimal Plays
QB: Herbert (MH)
RB: Irving, Hampton
WR: Meyers (MH), Collins, McConkey
TE: Bowers, Schultz
D/ST: Texans
GPP Plays
QB: Smith
RB: Jeanty, Chubb
WR: Evans, Egbuka, Johnston, Allen, Thorton
TE: Otton
D/ST: Buccaners
We have a two-game slate for Monday Night Football! Even on the shorter slate, we are seeing a couple of spots we want to lock in where pricing just isn’t where we think it should be, so you get 2 more Must-Haves tonight! Both these games should be close, and neither environment stands head and shoulders above the other, so all teams are in play for us. These small slates are where it can pay off to be heavier on a team and play tons of guys, or also find places you are willing to punt to get an extra stud or two in there, since those guys should still be scoring the most points. Let’s get to it!
Up first, we have our two Must-Haves in Justin Herbert and Jakobi Meyers. For Herbert, the Chargers were first in the league in Week 1 for PROE (pass rate over expectation), a stark change for a Harbaugh-coached team. They also didn’t dink and dunk around the line of scrimmage, with Herbert averaging 9.4 yards per attempt. On top of that, he also ran seven times and looked far more willing to take off. That’s in line with his off-season comments about embracing more of a Josh Allen style of running. This gives him the kind of high-floor, high-ceiling combination we love to see. While he has the highest ownership projection right now, all of the QBs are attracting similar ownership, which makes just playing Herbert the right move in all contests. Anything under 50% ownership would be great for Herbert here.
Looking at Meyers, he led the Raiders with a 30.3% target share against the Pats, and it wasn’t because he saw a bump when Bowers got hurt; most of his production came before that injury. There isn’t much competition on his team, and he’s proven for a long time now that he can consistently earn targets. He’s an excellent value on FD, but he is just outrageously mispriced on DK at $4.9k. Somehow, he’s not projected to be the highest-owned player on the slate, and at that price, we think he should be. We don’t want to be left in the dust by a guy who should be priced up with the other WR1s, so we want to lock him in for all contests.
If you were to go away from Herbert, we’d look to Geno Smith at quarterback. The Raiders were very aggressive, letting him throw 34 times against the Pats, and he has a couple of guys in Meyers and Bowers that can pick up yards after the catch, further pushing his yardage numbers. He’s primarily a pocket passer, and when targeting those guys, we want someone who can go for 300 yards and three touchdowns, and Geno is in the kind of offense that can produce that. He’s also pretty easy to stack correctly as those top two guys are clearly the ones who would go off in most of his ceiling games.
When looking at the optimal running backs, we’ll start with Bucky Irving. Irving was the clear workhorse in Week 1, and while he didn’t do much on the ground (2.6 yards per carry), we like his ability. If he is going to get 20 opportunities regularly, we’ll bet on his talent. We think his role is pretty safe, too, as White and Tucker had a combined three attempts against Atlanta. He’s the most expensive running back and looking very popular, so we get it if you want to fade him in GPPs, but he will have the ball quite a bit and most likely ends up being optimal. Omarion Hampton had all but one carry for the Chargers in Brazil and was on the field for 80% of the snaps. While Najee Harris could be in for a bigger workload as he works back from the fireworks injury, we expect Hampton to still be the lead guy here. He’s also not priced like a guy who could still get 70%+ of the running back touches, and more like a guy in a true timeshare, so we like that bit of salary savings when we have plenty of studs to pay for on this slate.
A couple of guys we would look to in GPPs are Ashton Jeanty and Nick Chubb. Jeanty looks to be the guy in Vegas, and he’s a lot like Bucky in that he was pretty inefficient in Week 1 but is getting most of the work. This offense looks to be very capable, though, and he could be ready to break out after getting his feet wet against New England. He could be used in cash on FD as well, but he is priced up higher than Hampton, so we prefer him in GPPs. Chubb started as the RB1 for Houston, but only took 50% of the snaps. He’s pretty cheap, though, and they kept going back to him throughout the game, so we think he has the trust of the coaches. If he got into the end zone, he would pay off his salary and help us fit the studs. He’s roughly a coin toss to score in the TD markets, and we’d lean slightly towards Yes in that market.
Our optimal wide receivers after Meyers are Nico Collins and Ladd McConkey. These two qualify as studs, and both are in play to be the highest-scoring guy on the slate. Collins only had five targets last week, but it’s very clear he is their best overall player, and they have to get him the ball. We’d expect a better effort here to get him the ball, and even though their offensive line looked woeful, the matchup does get better as Tampa is far better against the run than the pass. McConkey spent more time on the outside with the addition of Keenan Allen, and that pushed his aDOT a full yard higher in Week 1 than last season, at 10.8 yards. Even spending less time in the slot, he still earned nine targets, and they will be even higher value than last season if they continue to be further downfield, as we expect.
Looking at receivers better for GPPs, we have Mike Evans and Emeka Egbuka in Tampa. Evans led the Bucs in air yards and targets, and will probably be leaned on against a tough defense here with his experience and size. Egbuka got priced up pretty aggressively on DK, where he’s the fourth-most expensive wideout, but he’s only the sixth-most on FD, so he’s a better play there. We still like him on DK due to the condensed nature of this offense right now, and he should still have his chances. The guy who is better on DK is Keenan Allen. Allen led the Chargers in targets on just 62% of the snaps, so Herbert is looking for him, and he had a couple of big conversions. At under 40% projected ownership on DK currently, he’s also under-owned for his price. His teammate Quentin Johnston had the headlines after catching two of Herbert’s TD passes, and he showed the talent he has when he can secure the ball. He’ll have a lower floor, simply because he’s running the deeper routes, but that makes him perfect for our GPP lineups. If you want to punt, Dont’e Thornton would be the guy. He earned targets at a decent rate, playing 60% of the snaps and getting four of them. More importantly, they had an aDOT of 25 yards. On a short slate, just one or two catches would be a good enough score for the salary he can save us.
Two tight ends stand far above the rest here, and the first one is Brock Bowers. We don’t know why he was only playing ~66% of the snaps before his injury, but he’s so good that he made it not matter, posting a 5/103/0 line. We’ll continue to beat the drum that this probably isn’t sticky, and even being banged up here, they could limit his snaps and he’d still earn enough targets when he’s out there. His point projection is almost double that of the next tight end, so we still want him in our cash games, but we get it if you want to avoid the risk in tournaments. The cheap guy who stands out is Dalton Schultz. It’s no secret that Houston’s o-line is bad, so there’s a good chance they want to get the ball out fast. This would be great news for Schultz, who is cheap enough that he’d post a great score for us just on volume in this situation. This is a spot you can go double tight end with him in all formats as well, since there’s not much competition for him with Cade Stover injured. If you wanted to take a shot on someone else outside these two, it’d be Cade Otton. He didn’t catch any of his three targets, but he’ll be out there a ton and running a lot of routes—a recipe to fall into the end zone and end up as a great value.
For the defenses, the Houston Texans are the optimal choice. They are a talented enough unit that they should always be able to put pressure on the quarterback and be in the running to have multiple turnovers. Mayfield is a gunslinger, too, so he’s not unfamiliar with putting up some questionable throws. The other option would be the other defense in this game, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. This all comes back to the Texans’ offensive line not being able to protect Stroud consistently. If they get behind a couple of scores, it could be a long day for him back there, and it would be a great situation to create some turnovers.
Good luck tonight, everyone! See you in Discord!