Pitching: Peralta (#1 Optimal), Perez (Optimal Value), Ohtani (#1 GPP)
Hitting: MIA (#1 Optimal), NYY (#2 Optimal/#1GPP), MIL (#2 GPP), TBR (#3 GPP)
Bad Chalk: COL bats
Weather: MIA/COL should play, late start possible
Your optimal pitching option tonight is Freddy Peralta, who gets a great matchup with the strikeout-happy Los Angeles Angels. The Angels lead all of baseball in terms of how much they strike out, and over the last two months they have really separated themselves from second on that list, pushing close to 30% as a team. Peralta has solid K rates, getting LHH 25% of the time and RHH at a 30% clip. The X stats are solid, holding LHH to a line of .139/.307 with RHH slashing just .161/.280. Peralta is likely to face 6-7 RHH tonight in this Angels lineup with the possibility of 8 batters that strike out 25% of the time or more against RHP this season. The projections agree with the elite matchup as Peralta is one of the top point/$ players on the slate. He also has the highest raw point projection on DraftKings by nearly 4 points, which is rather significant on a slate of this size. He will be popular but checks all the boxes for us and is what we would consider “good chalk.” He is a must in cash games and likely a set-and-forget in GPPs; just be mindful to get different elsewhere if playing in those contests.
The optimal value on this slate is a top GPP option and is staring right in the face with our bad chalk. We will start by saying this—the weather at Coors tonight is actually showing a slight negative across the board, which is neutralizing things a bit. The altitude and ballpark are unchanged, so there is still a slight boost to HRs and runs in general, but not nearly as severe as we’ve seen this season. Eury Perez is the top point/$ play on DraftKings and is looking at ownership just above 10%. Perez has been on a bit of a rocky stretch but bounced back in his last start, putting up a very respectable 16 points on DraftKings, which would be more than enough for us tonight with his $6.3K price tag. The projections are one thing, but what we like even more for Perez is the matchup. The Rockies are set to send at least 7 RHH to the plate this evening, which plays right into Perez’s strength as he has held RHH to a line of .113/.258 with a K rate of 24% this season. With 7 batters scheduled to go to the plate tonight with K rates of 25% or higher against RHP, we love the upside Perez has. We not only think he can shut down one of the chalkiest stacks on the slate but also can really rack up the Ks and push for a ceiling score. He is the optimal value, but we understand if you cannot quite stomach him in cash games. In GPPs, he is all systems go and a really exciting play tonight.
Your top GPP pitching option tonight is Shohei Ohtani, who is still just $8K on DraftKings and $7.7K on FanDuel. Ohtani is still making his way back from injury and continues to see a restricted workload, throwing just 3.2 innings and 70 pitches last time out against the Orioles. That said, that was all the way back on 9/5, and the start before that he was allowed to throw 87 pitches and popped for 9 strikeouts against the Reds. Given the extended rest, we are willing to bet on his pitch count getting up into the high 80s and maybe even low 90s. If that were to be the case, he could be in for a smash spot and outperform his already solid point/$ projection. Since returning, he is striking out LHH at an absurd 44% rate while holding them to a line of .048/.210. RHH, on the other hand, are fanning at a 25% clip with a line of .141/.281. With the potential for the Phillies to send 5-6 LHH to the plate tonight, we really like this matchup for Ohtani. Given that we are still getting him at an elite discount, he is viable in cash games tonight, assuming they allow him to go a bit deeper with the extended rest. If he were to finally get the green light at a restriction-free start, we want to be ahead of the game on that and take advantage of the ownership discount in GPPs.
Next up we have another value play that we like in GPPs tonight, as Arizona Diamondbacks LHP Eduardo Rodriguez gets the ball against the Giants. Erod has quietly been on a bit of a tear of late, logging 3 straight quality starts and 20 or more points on DraftKings in all 3. His price has stayed down, though, and is actually $500 less on DraftKings following a 28-point performance in his last start against the same team he will face tonight. Over the last 30 days, the X stats are solid for Erod, holding batters from both sides to xISOs below .170, including an xISO of .091 against RHH. On the year, he has pretty balanced K rates to both sides, getting each around 20% of the time. Our projections have him as one of the top point/$ plays, and he is looking at ownership in the low teens, making him a great GPP option.
Finally, we have New York Yankees right hander Cam Schlittler. Schlittler has scored 23 or more DraftKings points in 4 of his last 5 starts and has some very impressive X stats to back it up over that span, along with his elite K rates. For starters, he is striking out LHH 30% of the time while getting RHH at a 33% clip over that span. In terms of X stats, LHH are slashing just .097/.315 with RHH at .084/.282. The matchup with the Twins doesn’t exactly jump off the page like some of the other options tonight, but given Schlittler’s recent success, there is no reason for us to believe he cannot keep it going against them tonight, as they are pretty middle of the road in runs scored and in terms of how much they strike out. Schlittler is a slight notch below the others mentioned in terms of point/$ but still carries pretty elite upside and is looking at sub-10% ownership, making him a solid GPP play.
Your optimal stacking option tonight is the Miami Marlins, who will be facing Kyle Freeland in Coors Field. We already mentioned that we are not seeing as big of a boost in Coors as we typically do, but Vegas has that information too, and as a result, the gap in their run total to the next highest is minuscule. That said, it is still one of the better hitting environments on the slate, and with ownership fairly spread out, we think they are viable in all formats tonight. You’ll want them in your cash game builds for sure with a number of guys grading out really well in terms of point/$ like Eric Wagaman, Connor Norby, Dane Myers, Otto Lopez, and Agustin Ramirez. In terms of the X stats, Freeland throws from the left side and has been hit hard by RHH, allowing them a line of .207/.362 this season. Ramirez (.224/.349), Lopez (xwOBA .395 vs FB), Wagaman (.224/.363), Joey Wiemer (.302/.348), and Myers (xwOBA .383) are the RHH with X stats that stand out against LHP. Jakob Marsee would be the only LHH to consider with an xwOBA of .370 against LHP this season.
Another stacking option that has some optimal pieces and will see some ownership themselves is the New York Yankees. That said, they are viable in all contests due to the balance we are seeing in ownership tonight and their potential upside. The Yankees will be facing Minnesota Twins right hander Zebby Matthews. Matthews is allowing LHH a line of .203/.369 this season. Trent Grisham (.265/.384), Ben Rice (.292/.428), Cody Bellinger (.207/.335), Jazz Chisholm (.288/.377), Ryan McMahon (.234/.348), and Austin Wells (xISO .202) will all hit from the left side and have great numbers against RHP like Matthews. Aaron Judge (.532/.512 vs FB) and Giancarlo Stanton (.320/.421 vs FB) are also viable, as Matthews holds RHH to a line of .126/.279 but does allow a line of .249/.359 with his fastball, a pitch he throws 40% of the time to them.
Another GPP option we really like tonight is the Milwaukee Brewers in a matchup with Los Angeles Angels right hander Caden Dana. For starters, the Brew Crew’s implied total is almost identical to the Marlins’ slate-leading total. Dana actually has some reverse splits going when we look at the strikeout numbers, as he is getting LHH 35% of the time to RHH 14%. What we do see against LHH, though, is that his fastball is getting hit pretty hard, as he is allowing a line of .231/.415 against it. Dana throws it nearly 50% of the time, and if the LHH in this Brewers lineup can just sit on that pitch, they can really do some damage tonight. Brice Turang (.221/.403 vs FB), Christian Yelich (.274/.400 vs FB), and Jake Bauers (.291/.394 vs FB) will all hit from the left side and have some solid numbers against righty fastballs this season. To RHH, not only is Dana not striking them out, but he is also allowing hard contact with an xwOBA of .345 against them and an xwOBA of .388 against his fastball. Jackson Chourio, William Contreras, and Caleb Durbin would be the RHH to consider, with all 3 hitting righty fastballs pretty well.
The final GPP spot we would consider tonight is the Tampa Bay Rays against Toronto Blue Jays right hander Jose Berrios. Berrios is allowing RHH a line of .264/.367 this season. Yandy Diaz (.174/.353) and Junior Caminero (.259/.363) are in great spots with solid right-on-right numbers. Berrios has been a bit better to LHH, but Brandon Lowe (.276/.383), Josh Lowe (.210/.393 vs FB), and Richie Palacios (.206/.320) match up well with the right hander as well.