CPT/MVP Pitchers: None
CPT/MVP Hitters: Ohtani, Judge, Witt (GPP), Raleigh (GPP), Smith (GPP), Tucker (GPP), Arozarena (GPP), De La Cruz (GPP)
UTIL Pitchers: Skenes (cash), Skubal (cash), Chapman, Munoz, Misiorowski
UTIL Hitters: Kirk, Goodman, Crow-Armstrong, Caminero, Baez, Buxton, Rooker, Carroll, Tatis, Kwan
One night after a very strong night of Derby bets, we are back in business for more MLB All-Star Game festivities. We have historically crushed the All-Star Game slates due to the exceptional tournament leverage that it provides. We are excited for the evening on the Diamond and cannot wait to sweat it with you all once again. Let’s get right down to business!
We want to start by breaking down the optimal strategy for GPPs for the MLB All-Star Game. Starting with the bats, most people go out of their way to play the most expensive players that are in the starting lineups for both teams, because people absolutely hate leaving salary on the table. This in turn causes the bench bats to be much lower owned than they should be. That will manifest itself once again tonight with options like Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani. Eating that kind of chalk makes no sense on a slate like this where most of the bench bats will see the same number of ABs as the starters (typically two at most) against pitchers that are about the same quality. The reality is that even the bench guys on both sides are still studs who are playing in this game for a reason. They are just as capable of putting up a respectable fantasy score. People get suckered into playing the chalk because both of the sites price the starters as far more expensive than the bench players, which in turn causes your lineup to feel quite funny if you end up leaving hoards of salary on the board. You start thinking that maybe Judge costs way more than Will Smith for a reason, and you don’t want to look stupid leaving $5k salary on the table. We are here to tell you that you should be doing this and there is nothing wrong with not spending anywhere near your full salary allotment for this slate. The optimal captain two years ago was Elias Diaz who was 0.2% owned and hit a homer, which just goes to show the value of playing the lower-owned options at the dish. Our header goes ahead and calls out our favorite options to choose from but just know that any bench option can be played if you are MMEing and you want to hunt for low ownership. If you are building 150 lineups, we would recommend getting 3% exposure minimum to every hitter. While Ohtani did hit a bomb in last year’s game, Judge went 0-2 before giving way to Duran, who hit a bomb off the bench in his two ABs, showing the clear path to success here.
That then brings us to the pitchers. Like always for the All-Star Game slate, the pitchers are only in the player pool on DraftKings. Our stance on the pitchers is that the best strategy for GPPs is to play very, very few of them (playing none is also totally viable). In fact, two years ago, the game was a low-scoring 3-2 game, and despite that, zero pitchers were in the winning lineup. That may seem strange, but let us explain. This stance has everything to do with the scoring system and how the pitchers are used in the game. Over the past four seasons, there has been one pitcher, all the way back in 2021, Corbin Burnes, who has thrown more than one inning in this game and he got slammed giving up 2 runs on 4 hits. With that in mind, there is clearly a very hard cap on the number of points a pitcher is going to be able to accumulate in this spot. They receive 2.25 points for completing an inning, 2 points for each strikeout, and then -0.6 points for each baserunner they allow. Even if they have a pristine inning where they strike out 2 and allow no baserunners, that caps them at 6.25 points. If they have the same strong inning and only fan 1, you are looking at 4.25 points. This score can be exceeded by a mere double from a bat. Now, just imagine what the scores would look like if they allow a baserunner or two and a run on top of that. While the pitchers do provide a strong points floor for cash games, they lack the ultimate upside you need to help you take down GPPs. The top scorers on this slate will always be hitters because they can score so many points with one swing and the pitchers can’t do that. The relief pitchers do have a little bit of extra upside in that one of them will likely be credited with the win, but it’s extremely difficult to nail that as only one pitcher in the whole field will get that bonus.
The two starting pitchers tonight are Tarik Skubal and Paul Skenes. Both of them are good cash game plays since they are guaranteed to get into the game, are super affordable, and will be very highly owned as a result. As mentioned, the issue for them, as it is for all of the pitchers, is that they are pretty much guaranteed to see one inning maximum. Our preference is to fade both of them in all likelihood, but if you do want to play one, we would highly recommend it is Skubal for a couple of reasons. The issue in this spot for Skenes is that three of the first six hitters in the order for the AL are lefties and that is the one spot where he has shown signs of weakness this season. Lefties have a .207 xISO off his heater and there are several lefty mashers from that side of the plate. As a result, bats like Riley Greene (.272 xISO/.339 xwOBA) and Cal Raleigh (.263/.332) who are hitting 2nd and 4th in the AL order are very intriguing options. And of course, the ever so pesky Judge is sitting there hitting third between them, so it is clear that this is not going to just be smooth sailing for Skenes. On top of this, the K rates for Skenes are just inferior to that of Skubal. On the year, Skenes has fanned 29.1% of lefties and 26.4% of righties compared to 32.3% and 33.7% for Skubs. Secondly, Burnes actually has pretty good numbers. When you mix in the fact that Skubal has elite numbers against both sides, holding lefties to a .072/.203 line and righties to a .142/.267 line, it really does lead to us skewing strongly in favor of Skubal if you do want to play one of them.
Outside of the starters on the mound, you are going to want to hunt for players with strong strikeout ability to really enhance your upside as much as possible. Aroldis Chapman looks like an elite option to consider. He has fanned an insane 51.6% of lefties and 37.5% of righties this season, giving him ample ability in the strikeout department. Another AL reliever, Andres Munoz, has K rates of 33.8% to lefties and 32.4% to righties on the campaign. He made last year’s All-Star Game and didn’t get to pitch, so we do think it is likely that Boone won’t bone him two years running and give him an inning of work. Lastly, Jacob Misiorowski has been the subject of a TON of attention/controversy in the lead-up to this game as he was named to the team despite making just five starts this season. We noted last year that the league office had a ton of incentive to get Mason Miller, one of their young stars into the game, and he promptly picked up the win while throwing a perfect inning on the mound and striking out two of the three hitters he faced. We think it is likely something similar happens here for Jacob as the MLB has every incentive to justify his inclusion in this game. He has one of the most eclectic arms in the bigs right now and has an absurd 40.4% K rate to lefties. His K rate against righties is more palatable at 26.7%, but the great news is that he has held them to a .117/.221 line, meaning no damage should come his way here.
In terms of the bats, as mentioned above, the best way to attack this slate is to simply play the ones that are going to be lowest owned since everybody is going to have a very similar number of at bats (roughly 2 each). Outside of cash games, we want nothing to do with the chalk that Ohtani and Judge will carry. We already touched on other starters in Greene and Raleigh that we do like. They do carry good numbers but, of course, as starters they will always be higher owned than backups. The one thing to call out here is that catchers are always a good option to play in this game. Both teams only carry two catchers on the roster, making all of Raleigh, Will Smith, Alejandro Kirk, and Hunter Goodman quite viable as all of them should be guaranteed 2 ABs, with the backups having 3 AB potential were there to be an offensive outburst in the game. Starting with Smith, he looks like an exceptional option as well in this game on the NL side. He is second in the majors in OBP, toting a .425 mark. He has superb marks of .314/.446 against lefties and .217/.387 against righties. We think Kirk and Goodman are two of the best value plays at their absurdly cheap prices on the slate. Kirk is going to get inserted into the lineup in a PRIME spot because Raleigh is starting and hitting cleanup for the AL. Once he gives way, Kirk will slide right into that spot in the order, giving him a ton of extra potential. It also makes it likelier that he slips into a third AB because of how high in the order he will be hitting. Kirk has a strong .212/.384 line off of righties this season. Hunter Goodman also makes a ton of sense. He has a .259/.353 line off of lefties and a .201 xISO off of righties this season, giving him plenty of potential from either side of the dish. Because every player is going to be subbed out in this game, there is no real downside to stacking catchers, even if they are on the same team. Playing Raleigh and Kirk together is a very contrarian way to attack this slate as you are guaranteed a full game’s worth of ABs from the cleanup spot in the AL order.
Moving along, we will do a deeper dive on the remaining offensive starters from both sides, starting with the National League. We obviously love what Skubal brings to the table numbers-wise, which pretty much rules out the top of the NL order for us. Obviously, Ohtani is going to be quite chalky, but Ronald Acuna may rival the big dogs in the ownership department as he has a first class ticket down Narrative Ave for this one given he is playing at home. However, it just doesn’t make any real sense to play a chalky option that is going to have a brutally tough first at bat. We do think that Max Fried will get into the game because the game is being played in Atlanta, and he will most likely enter earlier rather than later. His numbers against lefties are not the greatest, allowing a .317/.368 line against his splitter and a .310/.483 line off his cutter. We really like options at the bottom of the starting order like Kyle Tucker (.215/.363 against lefties) and Pete Crow-Armstrong (.229 xISO). The story also gets even better for the two of them if they don’t end up facing a lefty as they both cream righties with Tucker sitting at 255/.404 and PCA at .288/.387. PCA also has tons of ability to swipe a bag, shooting his upside even higher. With Tucker priced just below Judge, Ohtani, and Acuna, we think it is likely he gets quite overlooked, making him a very strong GPP play.
Flipping over to the AL side, Gleyber Torres will be a popular value choice as he is cheap and hitting leadoff for the team in front of Greene, Judge, and Raleigh. His X stats against righties don’t pop off the page (.189/.386) as they are good but not elite. Given how good Skenes is against righties, there are better places to plant your flag in our estimation. Like with the NL, we do think a good place to play through for the AL starters will be their bottom of the order guys. Clayton Kershaw is pitching in what may be his final All Star Game and the manager for the NL is Dave Roberts. We think it is likely he ends up in the game around the time we get to this part of the order, making Junior Caminero (.416/.380 vs. lefty heaters) and Javier Baez (.317/.436 vs. lefty heaters) stand out to us.
With all of this being said, there are a plethora of bench bats that look exceptional tonight. Starting with the AL, the infield is a bit of a mess, making some of the bench options there look pretty appealing to us. There are an inordinate amount of 1B/3B types on the roster (Aranda, Garcia, and Paredes), while just Jazz Chisholm, Zach McKinstry, and Bobby Witt will be coming off the bench to fill out the 2B/SS positions. With Chisholm fresh off his oblique injury and having participated in the Derby last night, we think it is very unlikely that he gets pushed heavily in this spot, making McKinstry and (especially) Witt elite options to consider off the bench for the AL. Witt’s numbers aren’t quite as good as last year’s, but he still holds a .389 xwOBA against lefties and a .241/.388 line off of righties. With his stolen base ability, he is one of our favorite bench options tonight and can easily be considered as a GPP CPT selection. McKinstry is the cheapest player on the slate and you likely won’t need his salary tonight. However, he will likely enter the game for one of Baez/Torres and see meaningful playing time. His X stats are not great, but the positional value is strong, to say the least. We typically advocate playing the OFs and they are usually ideal to stack because there are relatively few of them on the bench. Both teams carry just 4 backups for 3 OF spots, so once they are in the game, they are there to stay. For the AL, that leaves us with Byron Buxton, Brent Rooker, Steven Kwan, and Randy Arozarena. We really like Arozarena in particular as he has been SCALDING hot of late heading into the All Star Break. He leads the majors in homers since the start of July and replaced Julio Rodriguez in the game after he bowed out of participating. Any of this group is quite viable although we would prefer the power bats above Kwan in all likelihood.
Last but not least, we get to the NL bench. It is absolutely LOADED with viable options. Elly De La Cruz has an egregious amount of upside tonight and should get a good amount of playing time. It would not be shocking in the slightest to see him try to steal his way around the bases and put on a show. He also hits bombs. He hasn’t been quite as good as he was last year, but the combination of a bag and a bomb upside is exactly what you want to hunt for on a slate like this. He carries a ton of upside tonight as a viable CPT/MVP option. Fernando Tatis, Jr. is insultingly cheap for a player of his ability. He has a .275/.423 line against righties this season. Corbin Carroll also looks like a very strong option to consider given he mashes both lefties (.207/.378) and righties (.324/.386) alike. Best of luck tonight!