Optimal Plays: Scheffler, Rahm, Hovland, Fitzpatrick, Straka, Rai, Conners, Gotterup, Bradley, Hall, McNealy
GPP Plays: McIlroy, DeChambeau, Fleetwood, Thomas, Henley, Matsuyama, Burns, Spieth, Griffin, Day, Spaun, C. Smith, Berger, English, McKibbin
This week we have our final major of the year, The Open, which is held this year at Royal Portrush in Northern Ireland. The course is a classic links course with undulating fairways, deep bunkers, firm fescue, and dramatic coastal winds. One of the big things at this course is that there’s plenty of out of bounds, which will be a problem for the golfers if they start to spray it off the tee. For this type of tournament you want to lean on the golfers who are comfortable in these conditions. Ideally guys with some links experience as well as the veterans that know how to grind out pars if the wind picks up.
First things first, the constant elephant in the room, World #1 Scottie Scheffler. Scheffler had an embarrassingly bad performance on the greens last week, and still managed a T8. What is interesting is that he was rolling the ball perfectly, he was simply misreading the greens. We have an ample amount of confidence that he will learn from last week and put on a better putting performance. The greens last week had far more imperfections than a Major course should have. He’s putting on line with confidence, which was not the case for him in year’s past when he was struggling with the flat stick. This is an incredible course fit for Scheffler and he can easily run away with this one if he makes some putts. We recommend having exposure to Scottie Scheffler this week even if he’s not in your main lineup.
The other guy who stands out in the top tier is Jon Rahm this week. He was impressive on the LIV tour last week finishing as runner up behind Talor Gooch. Rahm is a guy who plays well in the best fields as shown this year in the majors where he’s been top 15 in all three so far, finishing 14th at the Masters, 8th at the PGA, and 7th at the US Open. Not only has he been playing well this year, he also has some links golf pedigree finishing T2 at the 2023 Open and T11th last time it was played here at Portrush in 2019. With a lot of top tier guys to choose from, Rahm to us is the guy to watch this week and would not surprise us at all if he is top the leaderboard come Sunday. He’s also just underpriced for how strong of a play he is. We project him for more points than Rory and he’s $1100 cheaper on DK.
Next up in the mid tier is Viktor Hovland who is coming off an 11th place finish last week at the Scottish Open. Hovland is another guy who has been impressive this year in the majors, finishing 3rd at the US Open, 28th at the PGA, and 21st at the Masters. Hovland should be able to stay out of trouble this week too with his elite ball striking ability ranking 2nd in SG Approach. Although he missed the cut at this tournament last year, he has had plenty of success on links courses, finishing 4th in 2022 and 13th in 2023. At a price of only $8,300 on DK he provides plenty of upside this week, making him one of the best plays on the board.
Another guy who is really hitting his stride and is as elite as they come on links courses is Matt Fitzpatrick. Fitz recorded a T8 and T17 in his two appearances before leaving the States, and followed those performances up with a T4 last week at the Scottish Open. He is striking the ball well, and has been elite in the short game, ranking 1st in wSG: Putting, 1st in Bogey Avoidance, and 3rd in Scrambling over his last 16 rounds. His ball striking and putting should result in loads of birdies and his short game will keep big numbers off the scorecard, a perfect recipe for being in contention come Sunday.
The mid-range is looking to be the most important range to pin-down this week. Hovland and Fitz look phenomenal, along with Sam Burns. The issue once again with Majors is the awareness of the best plays is very high across the industry. I will likely look to get at least one of them in most lineups, but I will also mix in some low-ownership pivots. Russell Henley’s game fits well here, and he is playing great golf of late. The field is likely to be timid with Henley due to him not participating last week to gear up for this event. If this results in an ownership discount on Henley, he is well worth playing in tournaments. There are many other options as well that have shaky floors but high ceilings at low ownership, which include: Justin Thomas, Hideki Matsuyama, Jordan Spieth, and Jason Day.
In the value section we have Aaron Rai who comes in priced at $6,900 on DK. Rai was born in England but resides in Florida now and has shown strong links success, finishing with a runner up in the 2021 Scottish Open and a 2020 victory there. He has made 3 cuts in 5 appearances at The Open with his best finish in 2021 finishing T19. Rai ranks 21st in SG, 13th in Par Efficiency and is well-suited for scoring at Royal Portrush’s par 71 layout. With many top golfers looking like strong options this week you will have to take chances in the value range and Rai is a guy who provides enough upside to be worth the risk this week.
If you need major salary relief, one of our favorite value punts is Maverick McNealy. Nothing in particular stands out from a course fit standpoint, but nothing looks alarming either. Mav is simply too good of a golfer to be this cheap. He comfortably ranks inside the top half of the field in Weighted SG: OTT, T2G, Approach, Putting, and ARG. He is -170 to make the cut, which is not our favorite metric to reference, but what stands out is that he has the same odds as many golfers priced nearly 1k more.
An alternative punt to Mav is Tom McKibbin. McKibbin, once compared to young Rory McIlroy, has immense ball striking potential. The issue for McKibbin is consistency. He has competed for wins at times this year on LIV, while also having some weeks finishing near the bottom of the leaderboard. However, there are multiple encouraging signs that point towards a solid week from McKibbin. The biggest being that earlier this week he estimated that he has played roughly 70 rounds at Royal Portrush. At a place where this style of course can be a culture shock for some of the field, McKibbin will feel right at home. Secondly, he is coming off a T4 and T5 in his last two LIV appearances. The cherry on top is that he is 3 for 3 in making cuts in Majors, so the pressure doesn’t phase him. He’s a viable punt in GPPs this week.
Lastly, we want to address the weather. Some people are claiming there’s a weather edge for AM/PM, but we really don’t think you should be worried about it. The winds aren’t projected to be very high on Friday, and they are consistent all day Thursday. And there’s also potential rain in the forecast which can flip a “wave advantage” on its head. All in all, we think it’s a mistake to focus on the weather when building your lineups. One wave may end up with a small advantage, but it’s not totally clear which wave that would even be, and the most likely outcome is that it’s a non-factor. Thursday should be difficult for everyone while Friday is easier for everyone.