Pitchers: Woodruff (optimal #1), Gray (optimal #2), Joey Wentz (optimal value), Luzardo (GPP #1), Boyle (GPP #2)
Stacks: Cubs (optimal #1), Twins (optimal #2), Blue Jays (GPP #1), Mini-Stacks and One-Offs
Before we get into the slate, it’s worth noting that some of the Red Sox options look optimal when looking at projections. Nick Pivetta, Rafael Devers, Bobby Dalbec, and Ceddanne Rafaela all pop in our projections and look like optimal targets. However, the weather in Boston looks horrible, and we’re not expecting that game to play, so we recommend avoiding them.
Our top optimal arm for today’s slate is Brandon Woodruff. Over the last 30 days, he has kept his xISO under .120 against both sides of the plate, while holding a 29.7% K rate vs. lefties, and a 31.7% K rate vs. righties. Woodruff gets a Miami lineup today that outside of Arraez, everyone strikes out more than 20% of the time. Woodruff will probably end up being the chalkiest pitcher, assuming the Phillies game is postponed, so a fade could be considered in GPPs. Woodruff is probably your safest option though, so I consider him a staple in cash games.
The next arm to mention is Sonny Gray. Gray gets a matchup against a weak Angels lineup, and we expect him to have success in this matchup. Gray has limited righties to a .141 xISO & a .285 xwOBA over the 30 days. Against lefties, he’s only allowed a .119 xISO & a .299 xwOBA. These are elite stats that only become more elite when facing an offense like the Angels. Gray hasn’t been missing bats like Woodruff has been (20% K rate), but at 2k cheaper on DK, we do not see a major difference between the two. If you need to save a little salary, we see Gray as a viable option on this slate.
Our top GPP arm on the slate is Jesus Luzardo. Luzardo has been elite against lefties over the past 30 days, as they have just a .043 xISO against him. Righties have had a little better success against him (.152 xISO/.298 xwOBA), but this is not anything that would scare us off Luzardo. We really like Luzardo’s swinging strike percentages (14% vs. R, 17% vs. L), to go along with a 28% K rate to both sides of the plate. Luzardo is 2.3k cheaper than Woodruff on DraftKings, and projects just 3 points less than him. All it takes is Woodruff to slightly underperform and Luzardo to slightly over-perform, and Luzardo is a smash play. So at lower ownership, we love Luzardo today.
The optimal value at pitcher is Joey Wentz. Wentz is not someone who we would usually target, but on this small slate with a lack of pitching value, we think he could be viable. Wentz has been solid against lefties this season (.122 xISO), but righties have hit him hard (.241 xISO & .366 xwOBA). Fortunately for Wentz, only Brent Rooker and Kevin Smith have xISO’s over .200 vs. lefties. Wentz won’t light the world on fire, but he could prove to be viable at such a cheap price tag. If you choose to fade Wentz, both Rooker and Smith (who are extremely cheap), can be considered for leverage off the field.
The last GPP option on this slate is Joe Boyle. Boyle is the biggest wild card on this slate. He is capable of missing a lot of bats, as he struck out 168 hitters over 117 innings in the minors this season. The reason he is such a wildcard is that in his MLB debut, he split the game with Ken Waldichuck, where Boyle threw 3 scoreless innings before handing the ball over to Waldichuck. However, Waldichuck pitched last night’s game. So it has not been reported, but it seems that this could be Boyle’s game to himself. If that happens to be true, he could absolutely smash against a poor Tigers team. I am taking a shot at Boyle today personally, but play with caution, as there is a chance they keep the same strategy and use a bullpen arm after a few innings. Sportsbooks currently have his K prop at 4.5, so I think they also believe we will get at least 80 pitches today if not more.
Our optimal stack today is the Chicago Cubs. The Cubs get to face off against Chris Flexen, who has been terrible for quite some time now. In 2023, Flexen has been a little reverse splits, as he has allowed a .260 xISO to righties, compared to a .140 xISO against lefties. We like attacking the Cubs righties in this matchup, but lefties are perfectly fine too to round off your stack. There are 3 righties that really stand out against Flexen and his primary pitch types (fastball & cutter), and it starts with Dansby Swanson. Dansby holds a .341 xISO & a .423 xwOBA against the fastball and a .276/.465 line against the cutter. Next is Seiya Suzuki, who mashed heaters (.255 xISO/.355 xwOBA). Suzuki has been on fire over the past month, and we love him to continue his hot streak today. The last righty that should be a staple in your Cubs stacks is Christopher Morel. Morel possesses a lot of upside against Flexen, as he hits the fastball (.258 xISO) and the cutter (.212 xISO) well. We like rounding off this stack with guys like Nico Hoerner, Mike Tauchman, Ian Happ, or Miles Mastrobuoni (cheap value). I am sure you may be wondering where Cody Bellinger is, well it turns out this is not the best matchup for him. Flexen throws his fastball and cutter almost 70% of the time against lefties, and Bellinger presents a lackluster .101 xISO against the fastball this season and a .103 xISO against the cutter. Now anything can happen in this game, and he may see better matchups for him out of the Colorado bullpen, but at the expensive tag, I would prefer to use that salary elsewhere.
The next stack we like is the Minnesota Twins. The Twins get to face lefty Kenny Rosenberg. In a short sample size in the big leagues, we have seen Rosenberg be pretty effective to both sides of the plate (.149 xISO vs. R/.142 xISO vs. L), but after digging into his splits in the minors this season, he could be due for some regression against righties. He allowed righties to hit for a .285 average against him and a .842 OPS against him. On a slate where offense is at a premium, I like attacking some Twins righties here at good prices. Donavan Solano (.168 xISO/.366xwOBA vs L), Kyle Farmer (.184/.342), and Michael A Taylor (.278/.336) are great and cheap options to start your stack. Two other Twins that have not had success against lefties this year is Christian Vasquez and Jordan Luplow, but both of them have been successful against lefties historically in their careers, so they can be considered at their cheap price tags as well. Andrew Stevenson is batting leadoff and is our top Pt/$ bat on the slate. He makes sense in optimal lineups and can be used as a part of Twins stacks in GPPs as well.
Our top GPP stack is the Toronto Blue Jays. The Blue Jays face off against Zack Littell, who has been pretty average. Righties and lefties have both hit him to a .184 xISO over the past 30 days. Littell does not miss many bats either against both sides of the plate. It would not surprise us at all if the Blue Jays really took advantage of him today. Littell throws his slider the most to both sides of the plate, and that is also the pitch that has been hit the hardest. Vladimir Guerrero, George Springer, and Bo Bichette all hit righty sliders well, and a combo of these 3, or all 3, should be how you start your Blue Jays stack today. We like rounding off your Blue Jays stacks with some of the best value from Toronto, and that includes Cavan Biggio and Dalton Varsho.
There really aren’t any more stacks that are worth noting, so I have decided to just provide you with some mini-stacks and one-offs to consider today. I already mentioned Brent Rooker and Kevin Smith in the Wentz write-up, so they are both worth consideration. While we love Luzardo, he can still give up damage to righties, so William Contreras, Willy Adames, Josh Donaldson, and Tyrone Taylor can all be considered if you are not using Luzardo. Randy Arozarena and Harold Ramirez mash lefty fastballs, which Ryu throws a lot. Both can be considered by themselves or as a mini-stack.
Conclusion: Woodruff projects as our top arm today, but it isn’t much more than the likes of Sonny Gray, or Jesus Luzardo. We think Woodruff is the safest option here, so you should play him in cash, but in GPPs, unless you just have extra salary leftover, we like paying down for Gray or Luzardo as your SP1. Wentz will be a chalky value, but we love the upside of Joe Boyle in GPPs. He comes with quite a lot of uncertainty, but we think the reward could be worth it here if he gets the amount of work we expect him to. As far as bats, it’s pretty straightforward. The Cubs are the top stack, and they fit well with the cheap Twins stack which we also like. The Blue Jays pack a high ceiling in this match-up and can be considered in GPPs. There are no other full stacks we like on this slate but refer to the above paragraph for some of our favorite mini-stacks and one-offs to complete your lineups.