Stacks:
DK: LSU, WASH ST, TEX, UNC
Optimal Plays
QBs: Daniels, Ward, Jefferson
RBs: Giddens, Martinez, Brooks
WRs: Nabers, Victor, McCollum
Another night, another dollar. Let’s dig into what could be an explosive nightcap following a monster Saturday of CFB.
The first QB we’re considering for optimal is Jayden Daniels. A callback paragraph from our earlier writeup: He threw for 300+ last week, passing for two TD while also running for two TD. Daniels has tremendous upside, and has a rock solid matchup to produce this evening. Daniels will be one of the first signal callers we look at when constructing on this night slate.
Our second QB we’re considering for optimal lineups is Cameron Ward. Ward has nearly 1,000 passing yards already, and nine passing TDs. He also leads the Cougars with 134 yards rushing and two rushing scores. Ward’s Washington State team has a nice passing game script as they are 3 point underdogs. Ward is an excellent option this evening.
For value, we’re looking at KJ Jefferson. At his price, Jefferson makes for an excellent optimal consideration in lineups this evening. He has got 629-6 through the air in three games, and he’s still moving it with his legs a bit. Jefferson has 13 rushing attempts in each of his past two games. He is a great option for the QB position this slate, offering value in your lineup construction.
Drake Maye is a solid option to consider for GPPs tonight. A clear stack emerged for UNC last weekend (more on that later), and he’s mobile. Not much more you can ask for when looking for upside at the quarterback positon. Being priced above Daniels, it’s likely Maye won’t carry much ownership, making him an excellent leverage option.
Quinn Ewers is another QB on our watch list this evening. He’s tossed for 740-8 this season, and his Texas Longhorns have a nice implied total tonight of over four TDs. Ewers also has some excellent stacking options, which we will touch on in the WR section. Ewers makes for a great GPP option on this night slate.
The running back position gives us a bit of a salary reprieve this evening. Starting with DJ Giddens, who could be in for a huge workload with Treshaun Ward likely out — and he is not priced like it. Giddens has been a safe bet for 9+ carries and a handful of targets each game thus far, and that was in a timeshare. With the backfield to himself, we could see upwards of 20 touches in a plus matchup against UCF. He is projected to be the highest owned RB on the slate, and to be among the top 2 point scorers at the positions. Giddens is our favorite option at the RB position on this slate.
Damien Martinez is the next RB on our radar here for optimal lineups. He’s the lead back for Oregon State, in a game where they are favored by three and implied to score 31 points. He’s gone over 100 yards in every game this season, and we could see him get a slight uptick in work here with this game expected to be tight. Martinez is a fantastic play at the running back position this evening.
Is Texas back? If Jonathon Brooks has anything to say about it they are. Brooks has taken over the lead back role for Texas, and seems locked in for 15+ opportunities a game at this point. The Longhorns are 14 point favorites, and are implied to score 32 points in this one. We love Brooks’ outlook here and will be considering him in our optimal lineups.
In GPP, Audric Estime is our favorite option. He’s shown huge big play upside, great efficiency, and a steady role in an electric Notre Dame offense. This is a tough matchup against Ohio State, so he may come in at lower ownership. This makes Estime a great leverage play as he has as much upside as any runner on the slate.
Another, cheaper GPP option tonight is Nicholas Singleton. Singleton has a solid role in the Penn State offense, but gets avoided in DFS because of his split load at running back. Penn State has shown that they prefer Singleton in the red zone when it really matters, and in 2022 Singleton proved to be among the best breakaway runners in the country. The knock on him is that if Penn State is rolling he and Kaytron Allen will split drives fairly evenly — making him much riskier than Estime. However, if the game stays close, we could see a healthy dosage of Singleton in the red zone, and it would take just one breakaway run for him to turn this slate upside down.
On to the aerial options. Let’s get right down to business with Malik Nabers. Nabers has a 31% target share for the LSU Tigers, and makes for an excellent stack with Daniels this evening. Last weekend we saw Nabers upside, as he torched Mississippi State for 239-2. He has a great matchup again this week, and his Tigers are projected to score 37 points. Nabers is one of our favorite options when crafting optimal lineups this evening.
Our next WR, Lincoln Victor, has commanded 31 targets on the season, good for a 28% share. He’s in a great game script here as the Cougars have a four TD implied total and are 3 point underdogs. With his volume, and opportunity Victor makes for a fantastic option in optimal builds tonight.
It seemed like we wouldn’t have a Josh Downs replacement, but Nate McCollum did his best impression last weekend. McCollum saw 20 targets — a 50% share! — catching 15 passes for 165-1. He’s a fantastic stack with Maye on this slate, and a solid option on his own. McCollum is firmly entrenched on our optimal radar this slate.
There are a slew of GPP WR to consider here, but let’s start with the usual suspect: Marvin Harrison Jr. MHJ is a man among boys most weeks, and this test against Notre Dame will be a great chance to prove himself. Big time players show up for big time games, and Harrison has been notorious for that in his career. His price point could suppress his ownership a bit, making for a fantastic opportunity to roster the highest upside WR on the slate with leverage.
There are a couple Texas options we want to mention here, starting with Ja’Tavion Sanders. He is expected to garner a decent bit of ownership on this slate, and for good reason. He’s been a steady cog for the Texas passing attack this season, and makes for a great stack with Ewers. The second Longhorn on our list is Xavier Worthy. Worthy is a stud, and he boasts a 27% target share. He has a ton of upside as he gets some deep targets for Texas. It’s hard not to like when a team’s top option gets those deep shots, making Worthy one of our favorite GPP options on this slate at WR.
Conclusion: There are quite a few ways you can take this slate, but we believe that starting your optimal lineups with some grouping of Jayden Daniels, Cameron Ward, and KJ Jefferson at the quarterback position. Daniels is projected to be the top owned QB on the slate by a substantial amount, and he projects as the top point scorer on the slate as well. Daniels projects as the top scoring QB on the slate, but is actually $300 cheaper than Drake Maye. Ward is projected as QB3 for scoring purposes, but is $1,100 cheaper than Daniels. At running back, we like some combination of DJ Giddens, Damine Martinez, or Jonathan Brooks in optimal lineup construction. Giddens is the top PT/$ play on the slate if Treshaun Ward is out, which he’s expected to be. He is officially doubtful, and we will update in discord to confirm. Martinez and Brooks aren’t too far behind Giddens in PT/$, and the trio comprises the top 3 point projections at RB, despite being in the middle-tier of pricing. From there, locking in a blend of Malik Nabers, Lincoln Victor, and Nate McCollum sets you up for a delicious evening. Nabers is projected to be the top scoring WR by four points tonight, despite being priced $1,200 cheaper than MHJ. Victor is the top PT/$ play by a wide margin at WR tonight, and his ownership is likely to reflect that. For GPPs, we like looking at some of the higher priced guys that may go under owned tonight. Drake Maye, Audric Estime, and Marvin Harrison Jr. fit that bill for us. Don’t be afraid to stack on this slate, as we a couple solid funnel options.