This line is +104 on Tailgate, good to -115.
Álvarez has allowed plenty of hard contact, and the Giants’ offense has been swinging it much better lately while matching up well against left-handed pitching. On the other side, Adrian Houser has shown a clear weakness to left-handed hitters, particularly when they can get to his sinker, and that lines up perfectly with several key Washington bats. The Nationals have been one of the better offensive teams this season, and this is exactly the type of pitch profile they tend to punish. With both lineups drawing favorable matchups and neither starter offering much confidence in run prevention, this game sets up well to get over the total.