Pitchers: Burns (Optimal), Cease (GPP 1), Wheeler (GPP 2), May (Value)
Hitting Environments: MIL/ATH (Optimal), COL/CHC (Optimal 2), TEX/KC (GPP)
Weather: Perfect
Welcome to another fun slate of baseball as we dive into our favorite pitchers and hitters. We are going to do things slightly differently for the hitting section as we dive into the three best hitting environments.
We begin with our pitchers, though, as Chase Burns takes on the San Diego Padres. He has strikeout rates of 31% to LHH and 27% to RHH. He’ll get to face five hitters with strikeout rates above 22%, which gives him added upside. The X stats look solid, as he holds lefties to a rate of (.140/.276) and righties to a rate of (.160/.263). This is a great way to start off your lineups with an elite pitching option.
The next pitcher on our radar is Dylan Cease, who takes on the Toronto Blue Jays. He has massive strikeout rates of 35% to both sides of the plate. That is huge because he has the strikeout rates to overcome a team that only carries three batters with strikeout rates above 24%. The X stats are reliable, as he holds lefties to the tune of (.123/.302) and righties to a rate of (.076/.252). This is another fantastic option to consider in your lineups.
On the other side of that game, we have a low-owned Zack Wheeler, who takes on the Toronto Blue Jays. He has strikeout rates of 24% to LHH and 27% to RHH. He’ll get to face four batters with strikeout rates above 21%. The X stats have looked great, as he holds lefties to a rate of (.145/.293) and righties to a rate of (.150/.271). He is a great pivot option to spend up for if you are looking to shave off ownership.
The value of this slate resides with Dustin May, who takes on the New York Mets. Over his last 30 days, he has looked fantastic. He carries strikeout rates of 29% to LHH and 25% to RHH. He’ll get to face five batters with strikeout rates above 22%. The X stats have also looked just as good, as he holds lefties to a rate of (.112/.271) and righties to a rate of (.142/.273). This is a great way to free up salary to spend elsewhere.
ATH/MIL
The first hitting environment we like is in Las Vegas, as the Athletics take on the Milwaukee Brewers. After we just saw these two teams combine for 29 runs last night, we want exposure here again. The Brewers take on JT Ginn, who tends to give up damage with his sinker. Christian Yelich, Jackson Chourio, Brice Turang, William Contreras, Jake Bauers, Garrett Mitchell, Sal Frelick, and David Hamilton have all had success against that pitch this year. On the other side of this game, the Athletics take on Robert Gasser. He also struggles with his sinker to both sides of the plate. Only Shea Langeliers and Max Muncy have had success against that pitch this year. Brent Rooker and Colby Thomas are the other options we would consider due to their success against LHP. Any other Athletic can be a fade candidate because they don’t have the X stats to be worthy of a mention, so play any others at your own risk. Our favorite options in this game are Chourio and Langeliers.
COL/CHC
The next best hitting environment is in Coors Field, as the Rockies host the Cubs. The Chicago Cubs take on Tomoyuki Sugano, who has kept righties in check but struggles mightily against lefties over his last 30 days. The only plays we want to consider with the Cubs are lefties, so that means Pete Crow–Armstrong, Moises Ballesteros, Michael Busch, Ian Happ, and Pedro Ramirez are the priorities for us. We don’t want the Cubs’ RHH because they don’t carry good X stats, and Sugano does well against them. On the other side of this game, the Rockies take on Colin Rea, who struggles with his fastball to both sides of the plate. Jake McCarthy, Willie Castro, TJ Rumfield, Hunter Goodman, Troy Johnston, Kyle Karros, and Eduoard Julien have had success against the fastball this year. Our favorite options in this game are Crow-Armstrong and Rumfield.
KC/TEX
The last environment we want a piece of is Kauffman Stadium, as the Royals host the Rangers in favorable hitting conditions. The Royals take on Nathan Eovaldi, who struggles with his cutter to both sides of the plate. Carter Jensen, Bobby Witt Jr., Vinnie Pasquantino, Michael Massey, and Isaac Collins have had success against the cutter this year. Jac Caglianone is also viable due to his success against RHP this year. On the other side of this game, the Rangers take on Stephen Kolek, who primarily throws a fastball to both sides of the plate. Joc Pederson, Corey Seager, Josh Jung, Brandon Nimmo, Evan Carter, and Kyle Higashioka have had success against the fastball this year, which puts them into consideration. Our favorite plays in this game are Jensen and Seager.
Slate Overview: Most slates don’t require a summary at the end, but this one is unique in the sense that there are a few games with such high totals that we almost just have to disregard the others because we can find low enough ownership in these great spots that there’s just no need to go all the way down to the low team totals. I think most people are going to use value pitching like Gasser or May and load up on Coors or Vegas. I like flipping the build and using good pitchers with a Rangers or Royals stack, or you can do a blend of those guys and some bats from the top two games. I like the Rockies as the most underutilized of the optimal teams. I think Rea is awful but the Cubs will be more popular by a wide margin. I could see the dupe rate being so high on all Cubs/Brewers/As 8-man builds that it’s just not worth submitting one in a GPP. I’d much rather operate in the Rockies/Rangers/Royals builds. They should be unique without being ridiculously unlikely to win.