Pitching: Glasnow (Optimal #1), Burnes (Optimal #2), Alcantra (GPP #1), Rasmussen (GPP #2), Holmes (Optimal Value), Warren (GPP Value)
Hitting: NYY (Optimal #1), MIL (GPP #1), MIN (GPP #2), CIN (GPP #3) COL (FD), ATH (FD), DET (Value)
Weather: MIA/ATL, LAD/PHI, ARI/WAS
Our first optimal pitcher of this slate is Tyler Glasnow who takes on the Phillies. He had K rates of 32% to LHH and 31% to RHH last season, which is ELITE. He gets to take on a Philly team with 6 guys that have K rates above 18%. The X stats check out in this spot as well as Glasnow holds both sides to under a (.131xISO/.256xwOBA). He makes for the optimal cash game play today to keep it simple, but there are viable pivot options in GPPs and any pitcher is capable of having a bad start if their command isn’t there.
Corbin Burnes takes the cake as the next optimal pitcher on this slate as he brings K rates of 21% to LHH and 24% to RHH. He also gets to face 6 hitters with K rates above 19% which should give him upside to feast in this matchup today. We love the X stats he brings to the table as well holding LHH to a (.103/.269) rate and RHH to a (.166/.297) rate. He makes for another excellent option on this slate today, and is probably our preferred stud in GPPs over Glasnow because he only projects slightly worse and should have much lower ownership.
Sandy Alcantra comes in as our first GPP only pitcher of the day. So far this year he has K rates of 26% to LHH and 30% to RHH. This Braves lineup has 7 hitters with K rates above 20% so Sandy could have himself a day today. The X stats show that he doesn’t do well against LHH but it really is just the changeup that has caused him trouble. Every other pitch has been fantastic so we feel like there’s more of a path for him to dominate than the overall stats would suggest. RHH get totally shut down as he holds them to a rate of (.030xISO/.172xwOBA).
Drew Rasmussen comes in as our next GPP option with his matchup against the Texas Rangers. He has K rates of 30% to LHH and 14% to RHH. 8 hitters in this lineup have players carrying K rates above 18% so he has the opportunity to pick up his K rate numbers against the RHH. The X stats are the best from all the pitchers listed as he holds LHH to a (.049/.154) rate and RHH to a (.026/.178) rate. We always love it when we can use a guy that has been untouchable. If he can get the whiffs against righties today he could post a big score.
The optimal value pitcher of this slate is Grant Holmes who takes on the Miami Marlins. He has had K rates of 27% to LHH and 18% to RHH. This Marlins lineup has 5 players with K rates above 30% so this is a sneaky spot for Holmes to get some K’s. If you look at his X stats it will show that he gets hit by both sides, but if you take a deeper dive you’ll see that it doesn’t tell the entire story. One of his starts came against the Dodgers so we can give him a pass against that elite lineup. LHH failed to hit any pitch that didn’t include the curveball over (.156xISO). The fastball to RHH got hit but no other pitch had an xISO above .006 which is insane. We expect Holmes to bounce back against the Marlins here in this spot. His ownership does have potential to get pretty high depending on how many sites tell people that he’s the clear optimal value.
Our last value pitcher is Will Warren who takes on the Pittsburgh Pirates. He has K rates of 20% to LHH and 25% to RHH. This Pirates lineup has been very swing happy as well with 6 players carrying K rates above 20% which we love. Warren historically hasn’t fared well against RHH but he showed flashes of the improvement to that side in his first start holding them to a rate of (.079/.218). The LHH has been where he succeeds though. Excluding the changeup, no other pitch got hit higher than a (.062xISO). Last year he held LHH to a rate of (.114/.293) so we love the upside he brings today.
Now we move on to the hitting stacks and the torpedo Yankees make our list again as the optimal stack. They take on Andrew Heaney who hasn’t had the best numbers against either side with his fastball. Paul Goldschmidt (.215/.375), Aaron Judge (.368/482), Jazz Chisholm (.197/.392), Anthony Volpe (.341xwOBA), Jasson Dominguez (.388xwOBA), Oswaldo Peraza (.501xwOBA), and Trent Grisham (.351/.398) are the hitters with great X stats against the FB pitch. Cody Bellinger is also viable if he fits your Yankee builds due to the porous bullpen the Pirates boast.
The Milwaukee Brewers come in as our next stack because Carson Spiers has given up a lot of damage to both sides of the plate with nearly all his pitches. We love targeting the top of the lineup due to their early success against RHP. Brice Turang (.356/.532), Christian Yelich (.208xISO), William Contreras (.393xwOBA) are the hitters we would target first who are off to a good start. Historically, guys like Garrett Mitchell (.328xwOBA), Rhys Hoskins (.181xISO), and Jackson Churio (.165/.330) have been good vs. RHP so we like using them as well. We also don’t mind values like Sal Frelick, Oliver Dunn, and Joey Ortiz because this is likely a get right spot for them against Spiers, but they are lower priorities. Frelick is coming off a 4-hit day and projects the best of this value group, so if you do take a value option here I’d go with him.
The Minnesota Twins are next as they face Ronel Blanco who gives up massive damage to his fastball. Matt Wallner (.287/.373), Carlos Correa (.199/.401), Byron Buxton (.416/.473), Trevor Larnach (.308/.450), Willie Castro (.225/.385), Ryan Jeffers (.339xwOBA), Eduard Julien (.230/.355), and Harrison Bader (.337xwOBA) are all players that have had success against the fastball. We love the Twins to get out to a fast start against Ronel Blanco today, but choosing which guys can be challenging since they all have similar upside. I’d trust the projections here for the specific site you’re using, while noting there is added risk to Correa and Buxton in a blowout as they’ve been getting subbed out early.
We also love coming back to the Reds once again after they broke out of their slump. They take on Chad Patrick who has had one bad and one good start. The sample size is limited for him so we just want to try and use the numbers against RHP. TJ Friedl (.372xwOBA), Matt McLain (.414/.439), Elly De La Cruz (.449/.508), Gavin Lux (.368xwOBA), Christian Encarnacion Strand (.351/.452) are the hitters that have gotten off to a hot start so far this year. Considering Chad Patrick hasn’t fared well against RHH according to the X stats, we love using Santiago Espinal, Spencer Steer, and Jose Trevino in your Cincy stacks as well.
The value stack of today’s slate is with the Detroit Tigers who take on Martin Perez. The cutter which Perez throws very frequently to both sides of the plate has given him trouble. Justin Henry–Malloy (.308/.355), Riley Greene (.290/.382), Manuel Margot (.279/.471), and Zach McKinstry (.773xwOBA) are all hitters that have had success against that pitch last year. Spencer Torkelson (.485/.581) and Kerry Carpenter (.638/.519) are viable because they have been tremendous against RHP this year.
FD ONLY:
Athletics/Rockies stacks
In terms of FD, the Coors Field matchup makes an appearance on our stacks with Joey Estes and Chase Dollander pitching today. Dollander had a 2.58 ERA with a 174:49 K:BB ratio but taking on the Athletics in Coors Field is a massive step up in competition. Lawrence Butler (.215/.348), Brent Rooker (.277/.373), JJ Bleday (.325xwOBA), Shea Langeliers (.226/.332), Tyler Soderstrom (.257/.355), and Jacob Wilson (.376xwOBA) are all great plays given their success against RHP. Gio Urshela and Max Muncy are also viable if they fit your builds.
On the other side of this game, Joey Estes has trouble with his fastball that has gotten CRUSHED by both sides of the plate so we like targeting the Rockie FB mashers. Mickey Moniak (.262/.417), Kyle Farmer (.220/.741), Michael Toglia (.224xISO), and Ryan McMahon (.434/.479) have gotten off to hot starts against that pitch this year. Hunter Goodman (.408/.392) has typically been good against that pitch in his career so this is the perfect matchup for him to get out of a mini slump. Ezequiel Tovar hits Estes slider very well too with a rate of (.179xISO).