Dominators: Larson, Byron, Blaney, Hamlin, Reddick, Briscoe (GPP), Busch (GPP), Preece (GPP)
Place Differential: Keselowski, Berry, Chastain, Bowman, Suarez, Gragson, Stenhouse, Smith (GPP)
Bad Chalk: Justin Haley
NASCAR heads to Darlington for one of the series biggest tests. Darlington, also known as the Lady in Black, requires drivers to run as close to the wall as possible, and has immense tire wear. We ultimately want drivers who are good in the long run and are able to manage their tires. We want to aim to have 2 dominators in our lineups, mixed in with great place differential plays. Let’s dig in.
The top tier of dominators is super tricky this week. This tier includes William Byron, Ryan Blaney, Kyle Larson, Tyler Reddick, and Denny Hamlin. We will begin with Byron who starts on the pole, and will have the most optimal path to leading the early laps. He also had arguably the best short run car in practice, which makes me believe he is a near lock to control the lead out the gate. The issue with Byron is that I was not too impressed with his long run speed, which could cap his ceiling a bit. Byron has a nice floor barring an issue, and he has the easiest path to being optimal, but I still believe I would rank him just behind Ryan Blaney. Blaney has undoubtedly struggled at Darlington recently, but we cannot ignore the speed he showed in practice. He was clearly the top car on the long run and it did not seem particularly close. It seems Blaney’s track history is keeping the field off of him, so I will gladly prioritize the best long run car at modest ownership. Larson is the toughest nut to crack this weekend, as this is one of Larson’s best tracks and he is capable of just dominating everyone all evening. Unfortunately, he starts 19th, so his path to the front is tougher, as track position is still important. Larson was also great in the long run though in practice, and a top 5 finish seems inevitable. I think the optimal route is to pair Byron (short run early lap leader), with Blaney or Larson (long run late lap leader). Pairing Blaney and Larson together is viable as well, but you are really going to be hoping to see Byron lose that lead early. After practice, Hamlin and Reddick appear to be the stragglers of this tier, as they did not show as much speed as the trio above. You should still get some exposure to them in MME formats, but they do not need to be forced into your optimal lineups.
Two other guys that you can include in your dominator pool are Chase Briscoe and Kyle Busch. It is ironic these two fall in a tier of their own, after they battled for the win here last Fall. Briscoe ultimately prevailed in that #14 Stewart-Haas car. Now Briscoe pilots the #19 JGR car, which is a huge equipment upgrade. I view Briscoe as one of the most skilled drivers in the series, and he is going to break out sooner than later in this new equipment. Busch on the other hand has STRUGGLED this season, but we are now at a track where talent could truly prevail over equipment. He was a top 3 car in the long run in practice, so I will dabble on Busch here in tournaments.
Moving onto the place differential plays, which are headlined by Brad Keselowski and Josh Berry. Darlington is a strong track for Brad, and he just won this race last spring. His practice times were elite and he starts back in 20th. At just 8k on DK, he is one of the best plays on the slate. Berry is in a similar boat, as he appears to be fast and starts 24th. He should contend for a top 10 this evening. Alex Bowman also starts deep in the field, but his speed appears to be nowhere close to Brad or Berry’s. With Bowman being more expensive, he likely will miss the cut in most of our lineups. He is a fine play, but he is not worth sweating not playing him. Ross Chastain is in a similar boat as Bowman, and I would prefer Ross if you have the choice. Ross is historically very good at Darlington, but he was a top 12-15 car at best in practice. Once again, another fine play, but prioritize your dominators and Brad/Berry before you worry about Ross.
As far as value goes, Justin Haley is projecting to be one of the chalkier values. I am going to label him as our first bad chalk of the season. Most people examine practice times and do not factor in the fact that Group A has faster track conditions than Group B. After factoring this in, Haley may have been one of the worst cars on the track. He starts 21st, and I fully expect him to lose spots this evening.
Ricky Stenhouse is fine value, but he likely does not produce a monster score. He likely improves from his starting spot, which would be solid value at his price. The sneakier value that I love is Zane Smith. Starting 16th, the field is not going to want to stomach playing him, but he quietly was a top 10 car in practice. Smith is the only value option that can truly produce a huge score and we want to chase that in tournaments.
Good luck this evening!