Pitching: Crochet (Optimal), Eovaldi (GPP #1), Kremer (GPP #2), Fedde (deep value)
Hitting: BOS (Optimal #1), CHW (Optimal value), CIN (GPP #1), NYY (GPP #2), COL/AZ (FD optimal)
Weather: NYY monitor but likely fine
Bad Chalk: Assad
We’ve got a nice day of Sunday baseball ahead with just a little bit of weather concern in New York, which we’ll continue monitoring.
We have to start by talking about Garret Crochet, who is the clear optimal pitcher to use today. He projects so significantly better than everyone else that fading him presents massive risk. He would really need to implode to not be one of the top two raw scoring pitchers, but it’s possible you can beat him by nailing your stud bats and using cheaper arms. I lean towards eating this chalk in most formats, but you can certainly make the case for a fade in GPPs. HIs recent performances have been worse than what he’s shown overall this season, and his last outing was his worst of the year, giving up 5 earned runs in 4 innings. While his overall numbers remain dominant, over the last 30 days he’s certainly giving up more damage than you’d expect, and his strikeout rates are a little down. He’ll probably do just fine against a weak Marlins lineup, but they do have some pretty patient hitters and it’s definitely possible that he doesn’t end up optimal. I still like using him in most lineups, but the time to fade him would be on a slate where almost everyone is still using him despite his most recent start being a disaster.
The worst pitcher on the slate today, due to high ownership and a low projection, is Javier Assad. I get that the game has a low total because the wind is blowing in at Wrigley. At some point though, so we still have to consider who the pitcher is. Assad has allowed a lot of damage to right-handed hitters, and the Pirates are trotting out 5 today. On top of that, his whiff rates to both sides of the plate last year were under 8% with a K rate under 20%. This makes him a pretty safe chalk fade as he’s unlikely to bury you with a monster score. This Pirates lineup has very little pop, which in some reduces the impact of the wind. Their collective ISO of just .100 means they need to rally together walks and singles anyway. Any MLB team is capable of doing that though, especially against a mediocre pitcher like Assad.
Our favorite GPP arm today is priced just below Crochet in Nathan Eovaldi. Yes you’re sacrificing a lot of projected points, but you’re gaining a ton of leverage by rostering a guy with a similarly high ceiling. Eovaldi has great whiff rates to both sites, and is excellent at limiting damage from righties. This Jays lineup is very good and doesn’t strikeout a ton, which is why he projects worse than Crochet, but he gets to face 5 righties, which is crucial for him. He can still get Ks against lefties but that’s where the danger lies for giving up the big hit. If he has his best stuff, he absolutely has GPP winning upside. The floor is just a lot lower when facing a lineup this good, because he won’t be able to navigate it well with his mediocre stuff. He’s gotta show up with good swing and miss stuff today, but it’s a risk worth taking for the massive ownership discount.
Next up we’re looking at Dean Kremer in the midrange. His numbers are solid overall, but have really improved over the last 30 days. He’s been holding righties to just a .083 xISO and .252 xwOBA. Lefties are also under .300 xwOBA so he should be able to limit damage pretty well despite the Astros having a solid lineup. His whiff rates to both sides are around 13% right now and we feel like he deserves to be priced up a bit more on both sites. On FanDuel, he’s the best PT/$ option if you don’t use Crochet, and yet he’ll probably be around 5-8% owned. Even on DK he isn’t likely to be chalky as he’s kind of in that no-man’s land of pricing where most people will choose to pay all the way up, or go for value. He brings a nice ceiling and solid floor with his ability to get strikeouts while limiting damage.
For a deep value play, we’re intrigued by Erik Fedde. He’s only 5k which is outrageously cheap for a pitcher who just threw over 100 pitches and is fully stretched out. The Braves are dealing with a lot of injuries at pitcher, so they need as much as they can get out of him. This Guardians lineup consists of 9 lefties, which is Fedde’s worse split, but he doesn’t need to do all that much to be worth this dirt cheap price. He projects as one of the better pt/$ pitcher options on DK, partly because last year in a larger sample size he struck out over 20% of lefties and limited damage effectively. This year in a smaller sample he’s been pretty bad, hence the min-price listing on DK. This is a spot where you could hold your nose and click him to save a lot of salary, but it’s not a requirement by any means.
Moving to the bats, the Boston Red Sox have the highest implied team total and look to be in a great spot against Miami Marlins right hander Jason Junk. Junk has been getting hit hard of late, allowing LHH a slash line of .215/.351 over the last 30 days with RHH mashing to the tune of .238/.350 over that span. The Red Sox are a tough matchup for RHP with a lot of solid LHH and RHH that hit right on right well. Roman Anthony (.234/.428), Alex Bregman (.223/.341), Wilyer Abreu (.261/.361), Jarren Duran (.179/.360), Ceddane Rafaela (.251/.361 vs FB), Masataka Yoshida (xwOBA .348), and Trevor Story (xISO .173 and 14 HR vs RHP). Anthony and Story would be our top choices on both sites, with Abreu in third.
With the high price of Crochet and/or Eovalid, you will need a value stack, and today the Chicago White Sox look to be a great option. For starters, only one player in their lineup has a salary above $4K on DraftKings and a number of guys are sub $3K. With an implied team total close to 5, a number of these cheaper options really stand out in terms of point/$. Miguel Vargas, Mike Tauchman, Brooks Baldwin, and Andrew Benintendi are in a tier of their own in that department, with Leyn Sosa and Chase Meidroth not far behind. In terms of the matchup they will be facing Kansas City Royals right hander Ryan Bergert. Bergert has been hit very hard by RHH this season allowing them a line of .225/.379. He has been a bit sharper against LHH, but not enough for us to shy away from the Sox LHH that match up well. In terms of X stats Benintendi (.217/.341), Sosa (.201/.341), Colson Montgomery (.331/.305), Vargas (.218/.352 vs FB), Kyle Teel (.214/.390) all stand out with solid numbers against RHP.
A really strong GPP option today is the Cincinnati Reds who will be facing Brewers’ left hander Jose Quintana. For starters, we have a very hot and humid Great American Ballpark with the wind blowing out, which is providing a boost to offense across the board including HRs. Quintana’s X stats are pretty middle of the road allowing LHH a line of .198/.327 and RHH .185/.360 and over the last 30 days his line against RHH balloons to .286/.403. Quintana throws a ton of sinkers to RHH and is allowing a .243 xISO off it. Elly De La Cruz (.240/.310), Austin Hays (.304/.488), and Jose Trevino (.210/.416) have solid numbers against lefty sinkers. Spencer Steer, Noelvi Marte, and Tyler Stephenson do not have outstanding X stats, but will hit from the right side and should be in a good spot against Quintana.
Next up, the New York Yankees are in a great spot against St. Louis Cardinals right hander Miles Mikolas. Mikolas has pretty bad X stats to batters from both sides allowing LHH a line of .267/.360 with RHH slashing .199/.350. He has a pretty even 3 pitch mix, but still throws his fastball 25-30% of the time to both righties and lefties and is allowing an xISO over .200 to both sides with the pitch. Aaron Judge (.505/.496), Trent Grisham (.305/.433), Ben Rice (.296/.429), Giancarlo Stanton (.284/.405), Cody Bellinger (.214/.344), Jazz Chisholm (.445/.460), Anthony Volpe (.257/.355), and Ryan McMahon (.318/.446) all have stand out numbers against righty fastballs and look to be in a great spot today.
On FanDuel only, Coors Field is included, which has ruined many of my Sunday afternoons. The projections show that many of these bats are clearly optimal. They’ll carry quite a bit of ownership, but in optimal builds you want to include a bunch of these guys. Freeman, Beck, Doyle, and Tovar are the best 4-man stack if you want to play the Rockies, and for Arizona it would be Alexander, Carroll, Locklear, and Gurriel. I prefer the Rockies side though as they project better and for lower ownership. I think in GPPs I’d avoid the DBags, but using the full Rockies stack is definitely viable, especially if you’re unique elsewhere.