Optimal: Hamlin, Larson, Blaney, Logano, Busch, Chastain, Gibbs, Smith
GPP: Byron, Elliott, Berry, Preece, Cindric, Heim, Gragson, Love
Richmond Raceway, with its three-quarter-mile layout and aging surface, is one of the most tire-demanding tracks on the schedule. Success here often comes down to drivers who can manage their equipment over long green-flag stretches, making smooth, patient driving a huge advantage. With just two races left before the playoffs, the stakes are high for anyone looking to secure their spot.
Kyle Larson starts deep in the field, but his speed in practice, especially on long runs, suggests he has the pace to slice through the pack. That combination of passing potential and race-winning upside makes him a top option. Kyle Busch showed very similar pace in the same sessions and comes at a cheaper price point, which could open more roster flexibility while still offering a strong finishing ceiling. Last year we saw his teammate Austin Dillon “win” here, and it came out that they had two completely different set ups for that race. Assuming they should be on the same page this year, Kyle has a chance to punch his ticket into the playoffs. Our other two studs starting deep are Ross Chastain and Joey Logano. I rank them behind the Kyle duo above, and would largely prefer Chastain over Logano. This track is not Chastain’s best, but he should be able to finish in the top half of the field. Logano on the other hand, you would expect him to be good here. He fired off terribly in practice, and then hit the wall hard. They have worked on the car all day to get it ready, but they also still need to find speed as well. At high ownership, he is definitely worth fading, as he is a prime candidate to go a lap down early.
Denny Hamlin’s record at Richmond in recent years is unmatched, and nothing from practice suggested that will change. He was among the best over long runs and is a clear threat to lead a large chunk of the race. He is the top dominator on this slate.
Ryan Blaney is an interesting play for larger tournaments; his speed was solid, and starting mid-pack gives him plenty of room to gain spots. He was arguably the second best car in practice, behind Denny. Blaney has struggled at Richmond, which should keep his ownership down. However, I am not worried about his track history because Blaney is fantastic at all the closest comps to Richmond.
Chase Elliott is another driver to watch. He starts toward the front, showed excellent tire management in practice, and has the type of consistency that can translate into dominator points late in runs. I really like how Chase got much better deep in the practice run.
As far as value goes, Ty Gibbs is your premier value option. He showed top 10-12 speed in practice, and will roll off 23rd at just 7k on DK. After that it gets ugly, as all the cheap guys seem likely to just get lapped early, as they all displayed zero speed in practice. Zane Smith would be your best bet below 6k, or you can take a shot on the young Jesse Love.
For those looking to take a chance on a value flier, Corey Heim could fit the bill. While he’ll roll off near the back, his practice speed showed he’s capable of running far better than his qualifying effort indicates.