Pitching: Stroman (Optimal), Boyd (#1 GPP), Fedde (#2 GPP), Houck (#3 GPP)
Hitting: NYY (#1 Optimal), KAN (#2 Optimal), DET (Optimal Value), CHC (#1 GPP), BOS (#2 GPP), CIN (#3 GPP), LAA (#4 GPP)
Bad Chalk: Gausman, Assad
Weather: PHI/KAN (Elite hitting weather again, Temp in 90s, humid, winds out to left at 10-15 mph)
We have a very interesting 9-game main slate on our hands for this Sunday afternoon. The pitching on it leaves a TON to be desired, which means that we need to really hone in on the best spots to target since there will be many lineups that end up with holes on the mound. Let’s get right to it.
Kevin Gausman is projected to carry the most pitching ownership on both sites in what is possibly the grossest slate on the mound all season. There just is nothing to love about him in this spot. He has very middling K rates of around 21% to hitters on both sides of the plate this season. Lefties have a .255 xISO/.373 xwOBA off his fastball and righties have a .282/.422 line themselves. That is poor news against this Angels team. Ward (.372/.418), Neto (.314/.410), O’Hoppe (.225/.338), Thaiss (.347 xwOBA), and Kavadas (.337 xISO) all hit the fastball quite well. The reality of the situation is that pitching sucks this afternoon. People are going to play Gausman because of the perceived safety against an Angels team that has been scuffling and was just completely neutered by Bowden Francis yesterday. However, the numbers really do not support playing a chalky Gausman in this spot. We will be looking elsewhere.
Javier Assad is another arm that looks to be gaining ownership traction after he had a strong start his last time out for the Cubs. He is facing the Marlins, so that could also be driving ownership in his direction. The issues for Assad are two-fold here. The first is that he is projected to face six righties in this spot. He has fanned 22.3% of lefties but just 17.6% of righties this year. On top of that, his cutter has been pounded by hitters on both sides. Lefties have a .248/.399 line against it and righties sit at .342/.484. Burger (.322/.384), Sanchez (.193/.389), Bride (.191/.406), Norby (.450 xwOBA), Stowers (.352 xwOBA), Hill (.514 xwOBA), and Lopez (.350 xwOBA) all have strong numbers against the offering. That makes us far less inclined to target what is looking to be a chalky Assad.
When we say the pitching is brutal, nothing could prove it more than the fact that Marcus Stroman is the top optimal arm on the slate. There is nothing about Stroman that ever screams upside at this point in his career. He has fanned just 14.8% of lefties and 18.7% of righties this season. With that being said, he has done a decent job of mitigating damage as he has held lefties to a .168/.363 line and righties to a .183/.320 line. The pitch that causes him the most issues is his sinker to lefties (.171/.413). McMahon (.174/.449) and Toglia (.432/.528) are the two biggest threats to him here but this should be a safe enough spot for him. He grades out as the best point-per-dollar option on the slate by a comfortable margin on both sites, making him deployable in all formats.
Our top GPP option is Matthew Boyd. Boyd grades out as one of the best value options this afternoon as well. He is quite cheap and is now making his third start of the year after making his way back from Tommy John. His two starts have been up and down, primarily due to the fact he had to face the Yankees in his last outing. However, in his first start against the Cubs, he looked quite good, posting a 20.2 fantasy point effort on the back of a 1 run, 3 hit effort where he struck out 6 over 5.1 innings of work. His pitch count climbed from 80 to 85 so we could see 90 from him this afternoon against Texas. Last season, he fanned a strong 22.2% of lefties and 24.6% of righties, both of which are good marks for a player of his price. He held lefties to an elite .097/.270 mark but righties did have success off his heater (.238/.365). That makes bats like Semien (.371/.477), Garcia (.209 xISO), and Langford (.222/.357) dangerous here. However, on a slate with limited options, Boyd is some of the best value you are going to find for your GPP lineups.
Erick Fedde is our second GPP target of the afternoon. In what continues to be a theme, his K rates are nothing special. He has fanned 18.8% of lefties and 22.4% of righties this season. He is slated to see 6 lefties from the Twins in this spot and lefties have a .181/.326 line off of him this season. The pitch that has given him trouble against lefties is his sinker (.232/.373). Of the six lefties, only three of them in Wallner (.364/.389), Santana (.238/.361), and Julien (.244/.356) have strong numbers against it. If he can avoid throwing them a pitch he only features 23% of the time to lefties as is, he should have a reasonably productive outing. He grades out as one of the better value options on the slate and can be deployed in GPPs at lower ownership.
The final pitching option to consider is Tanner Houck. He has to face the red-hot Arizona Diamondbacks, so the matchup is not ideal. This is purely an X stat play as he is projected to see 7 lefties in this spot and he has been quite good against them this season. On the year, they hold a meager .118/.306 line off of Houck and righties have not fared much better (.147/.315). He does have just a 19% K rate against lefties, so the K upside is not off the charts here obviously. With that being said, it clearly is not off the charts for anybody this afternoon. If Houck can just hold the Snakes in check, he easily could find himself with a solid score by the time he is finished.
Before moving on to the bats, we just want to wrap up this pitching section by talking about how you should approach a slate that is THIS bad on the mound. There is not a single pitcher on the slate with higher than a 21% K rate this season. Nobody is going to break the slate in all likelihood as a result. That makes this effort all about avoiding the landmines that are out there. For most people, that is going to mean playing options like Gausman, Stroman, or Assad due to their matchups. However, as mentioned, their ceiling projection is not going to be any higher than pretty much anybody else’s on the slate. It is just that their median marks are “safer”. As a result, we are not afraid to pivot off the chalky arms because pretty much anybody could post the optimal score this afternoon.
The New York Yankees are going to be the optimal bats of the slate as they are going up against the horrid arm of Austin Gomber and the Rockies in Yankee Stadium. The issue here is that people are going to have the salary to easily be able to get to them thanks to the horrid nature of the arms on the slate where the most expensive option is just $9.3k on both sites. There really is not a ton that needs to be said here. Lefties have a .373/.425 line off Gomber’s heater. Righties have a .267/.406 line. Soto (.896/.737), Judge (.381/.489), Stanton (.285/.345), Chisholm (.361 xwOBA), and Trevino (.211 xISO) are all excellent options to stack up here for the Bronx Bombers. Torres is projected to be very chalky and has a meager .166/.275 line off lefty heaters, so we are not inclined to eat his chalk. You really cannot go wrong with stacking the Yankees in this spot.
The second optimal stack of the afternoon is the Kansas City Royals. The weather is identical to what transpired last night where we have temps in the 90s, super humid air, and the wind blowing out to left at 10-15 mph. The Royals are facing Koby Allard for the Phils and he is just a bad pitcher. Righties have a .272/.409 line off his heater this season. Garcia (.379 xwOBA), Witt (.307/.413), Perez (.274/.354), Renfroe (.286/.387), Fermin (.370 xwOBA), and Blanco (.239 xISO) look exceptional in this spot.
The Detroit Tigers are once again projecting as the optimal value bats of the slate. They are facing Jonathan Cannon and the White Sox. The hard part about fading the offense going against the White Sox pitching right now is that even if they don’t line up all that well against the starter, the bullpen is even worse. Cannon has been hammered by lefties who hold a .212/.343 line against him overall, a .327/.471 line off his sinker, and a .282/.358 line off his heater. Greene (.314/.449), Carpenter (.569/.496), Keith (.182/.383), and Jung (.421/.440) all look exceptional here. Both Meadows and Vierling are projected to be extremely popular again as well and both don’t have strong X stats, making them easier fades on a large slate like this. The issue though is that both could pop off in bullpen time. Regardless of how you approach here, the Tigers will be solidly owned in this matchup and provide value for your lineups.
Our top GPP stack of the afternoon is the Chicago Cubs in their matchup with Adam Oller and the Miami Marlins. Oller is really, really, really bad. In limited action this year, lefties have a .567/.487 line off his fastball and righties have a .461 xwOBA off of it. This is not a new development as lefties held a .271/.505 line off it last year and righties sat at .353/.487 themselves. The Cubs bats have been red hot of late, particularly some of the cheap ones at the bottom of the order. Happ (.315/.409), Busch (.311/.382), Suzuki (.351/.395), Bellinger (.210/.339), Hoerner (.352 xwOBA), Crow-Armstrong (.213 xISO), and Amaya (.209/.402) all line up impeccably here. We love their chances of popping off against Oller and will be stacking them up in GPPs.
Our second GPP stack is the Boston Red Sox. Merrill Kelly has not been good this season. His fastball has been annihilated by lefties (.552/.390), which does not bode well against a powerful lefty-hitting Red Sox squad. Righties also have a .212 xISO off his cutter. That makes bats like Duran (.240/.365), Abreu (.194 xISO), Devers (.394/.430), O’Neill (.242 xISO), Yoshidaa (.385 xwOBA), Jansen (.280 xISO), and Rafaela (.301 xISO) all smash these offerings.
The Cincinnati Reds are our next GPP stack of the slate. They are facing off with Luis Ortiz and the Pittsburgh Pirates. Ortiz has been hammered by lefties this season as they hold a .309/.343 line off his fastball and a .362/.402 line off his slider. Righties have a decent .182/.345 line against his sinker. That brings a ton of solid options into play like India (.355 xwOBA), De La Cruz (.281/.375), Stephenson (.356 xwOBA), Steer (.351 xwOBA), Smith (.264/.368), and Benson (.231/.324). They too have loads of upside to offer. Best of luck this afternoon!