Optimal: Everyone starting 24th-40th (besides Joey Gase and BJ McLeod)
GPP: Bowman, Suarez, Dillon, Burton, Gragson, Keselowski, Buescher, Busch
If you are new to NASCAR DFS, listen up. Daytona (along with Talladega and New-Atlanta), are considered Super-Speedways, or drafting tracks. In these races, anyone is capable of a good finish, and we often see big crashes that knock a lot of drivers out of the race. For this reason, the strategy for these races is to stack the back. For cash and SE contests, we suggest not playing anyone starting in the top 20. As you move into large field MME tournaments, feel free to include 1-2 drivers starting in the 10-19 range, but it is not a must. Every driver has about a 60% chance of finishing the race, so playing guys that start towards the front comes with a huge risk of a negative score in your lineup. Also, do not be afraid to leave salary on the table. More likely than not, the optimal lineup will have an excess of salary leftover.
Any driver starting in the back half of the field is viable, but we have a few optimal options that should be a staple in your cash game lineups. First is Erik Jones, who will start dead last. Jones is historically a great superspeedway driver and he brings the highest floor and ceiling to the table tonight. Jones will be the chalkiest driver in the field, but for good reason. The next optimal option is Corey Lajoie. Daytona is Lajoie’s best track and he finds himself starting way back in 34th. Lajoie recently announced he lost his ride for next season so he likely is going to go all out to try and win this race and earn a job for next year. He oozes upside but his aggressive driving style could potentially end his night early. The last piece of the optimal ‘Big 3” is Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Stenhouse is very similar to Lajoie, as he starts in 35th, needs a win, and is very aggressive. The ceiling is massive here as well which is going to make him popular. Feel free to use these three drivers in all formats, but we are going to discuss some lower owned options below.
Every driver starting 24th-40th, with the exception of Joey Gase and BJ McLeod, could be considered “optimal”. However, you will notice when looking at projections that some of those drivers project for lower ownership than others. Carson Hocevar and Justin Haley immediately strike our eyes, as they start in the very back, have the same amount of upside as Jones, Stenhouse, and Lajoie, but may come in at nearly half the ownership. We definitely have our eyes on Hocevar and Haley in GPPs.
Two other guys that fit nearly the same mold are Zane Smith and John Hunter Nemechek. They start a few spots ahead of all the guys above, but are still greatly towards the back of the field. They are both in cars that will be competitive and both are very good drivers. Getting both of these drivers at under 20% ownership would be a steal.
Many studs start in the mid to low 20s, including Bell, Gibbs, Chastain, Reddick and Bowman. All of these guys are phenomenal plays as well, but we would look to be overweight on the guys that project for lower ownership. Out of this group, Bell will be the chalkiest, while Bowman and Gibbs stand out as drivers that will be lower owned. Bowman in particular sticks out, as he has the best average finish at superspeedways in the Next-Gen era.
Lastly, feel free to mix in a guy starting 11th-19th in your GPP lines, but we want you to realize that drivers such as Denny Hamlin, Bubba Wallace, and Ryan Blaney are projecting to be chalky, and for no good reason. Yes, they are phenomenal superspeedway drivers, but with the unpredictability of Daytona, there is no reason a driver starting inside the top 20 should be chalk.