This bet can be found on DraftKings or FanDuel at -105. We think both starting pitchers are going to have success tonight, and we expect to see the top three bullpen arms for each team in the later innings.
Aaron Nola will be on the mound for the Phillies in this one. Nola has been electric in the postseason thus far, allowing just two runs on nine hits scattered across 12.2 innings of work while striking out 12. We have seen him throw 88 and 92 pitches in both games thus far so the Phillies clearly are inclined to let him work. Nola gave up 32 homers on the season and has seen his fastball get tattooed by hitters on both sides of the plate. Lefties have a .216 xISO off his fastball while righties have a .254 xISO themselves. However, the xwOBAs were held in check, which tells us that it’s just been the long ball giving him in trouble. With how great the Diamondbacks bats are at hitting the fastball, this could be a spot where Nola gets absolutely lit on fire, but we think his issues allowing the longball might be behind him. Many of those homers came before he changed which pitch clock he was looking at. That may sound like an insignificant change, but when the team was trying to diagnose why he was giving up so many homers this year, they found that to be the primary cause. When he looked at the clock, his shoulder alignment got messed up, and it was impacting his pitches that came late in the clock. He’s started looking at a different timer in the stadium, and it supposedly solved this issue. I believe that was discovered in September, and he’s given up just 1 HR in his last five starts. I think very few people are aware of this, so Nola may be better than the market believes he is. So while he has a lot of tough matchups in this DBacks lineup, we like him to continue his recent stretch of strong outings.
If he can get through 5 or 6 innings, the Phillies pen is loaded with solid options. With only two true lefties projected to start for Arizona, the only reason we would see a lefty enter the game would be to contend with Corbin Carroll in all likelihood. The top option to have that responsibility is Jose Alvarado who went 1.1 innings of work last night while throwing just 15 pitches. The Phillies clearly trust him in big spots and we easily could see him again here. Although he is a lefty, he carries a massive 41% K rate against righties this season while holding them to a .102 xISO/.268 xwOBA which makes him an exceptional option for them to limit damage for an inning. From the right side, it is instructive to look to last night to see how the Phillies followed Wheeler. Seranthony Dominguez came in prior to Alvarado and pitched well, allowing one hit over 0.2 innings of work before giving way to the lefty. He too threw 15 pitches in last night’s game but that should hardly limit him in this one. He has a 26% K rate against righties this season and limited damage well, which bodes well against the heavy righty order for the Diamondbacks here. And of course then we have the closer, Craig Kimbrel who certainly will see the mound in a close game looking for the save. Kimbrel threw 16 pitches himself last night but he should be available to close things down once again if it’s called for. All of these pitchers being available should really limit the Diamondbacks hitters tonight.
Meanwhile, on the other side, Merrill Kelly will be toeing the slab for the Snakes. He had a superb first start of the postseason against the Dodgers where he allowed no runs on three hits over 6.1 innings while striking out five. Kelly has been elite against righties this season, holding them to a .129 xISO/.297 xwOBA with a 27% K rate overall. Lefties have had more success off his heater with a .238 xISO/.367 xwOBA off of it. With only three scary lefties to contend with, we think he’ll find success overall and limit the damage.
After Kelly, the bullpen is set up well for tonight. The Diamondbacks used Kyle Nelson out of the pen last night with him throwing 20 pitches in relief of Gallen. He could certainly pitch again tonight, but the two best arms that we would expect to see in a close game tonight are Kevin Ginkel and Paul Sewald. Ginkel has been their set-up man and has K rates of roughly 28% to hitters on both sides of the plate this season. He did not throw last night and we would expect to see him in this spot tonight. Paul Sewald has been electric since coming over from Seattle at the trade deadline and has been shutting teams down throughout the postseason thus far. If the Diamondbacks do lead, he will be tasked with navigating the ninth for them. Lastly, Joe Mantiply is their lefty specialist. We do think it makes a ton of sense for him to navigate the top of the Phillies order with Harper and Schwarber. Lefties have a 22.4% K rate and a .079 xISO/.215 xwOBA off him this season.
With all these solid pitcher matchups, we think the 7.5 total is too high. It’s a great spot to attack the under down to -125 or 7 runs at even money.