This week the tour heads overseas to Japan for the ZOZO Championship. Last year we saw Keegan Bradley edge out Rickie Fowler by shooting -15 to win the championship. Historically at this course we see guys who can really strike the ball well and put themselves in position to make putts end up in the winner’s circle. Along with hitting irons well, guys who can hit it long off the tee also tend to have an advantage.
One of the first guys that pops this week at a good price is Min Woo Lee checking in at $9,100 on DK. Over the last 24 rounds that he’s played compared to the field, he ranks 3rd in driving distance, 3rd OTT, 1st in ARG, 2nd in putting, 1st in sand saves, and 48th in BS. Last time we saw him play on the PGA Tour he was finishing 41st in The Open, which was his 6th straight cut made. Unlike a lot of the other guys who took a break at the end of last season, Lee has been playing on the DP World Tour. In September he made all three cuts finishing 7th, 14th, and 64th. Our projections absolutely love him, and he doesn’t even project all that chalky compared to other options in his price range. Lock him in for all lineups.
Next up we have Callum Tarren who rates out really well this week and also provides a bit of salary relief on both sites. He has played well so far on the fall swing making all three cuts, finishing 7th, 43rd, and 23rd in those outings. Tarren checks in really well in BS ranking 3rd to go with 8th in approach and 5th in driving distance. He shouldn’t be too chalky and therefore is a good play in all formats.
One more option in the mid tier of pricing that stands out to our team is Adam Schenk. Schenk comes in ranked top-10 in Strokes Gained Approach, along with top-25 in Opportunities Gained, Driving Distance, and Strokes Gained Putting and Tee to Green. He is coming off of missing the cut on the number at the Shriners, but we are not overly concerned by this as he should bounce back after losing all his strokes in the short game. Schenk has finished top-10 in four of his last eight outings, and has as high a ceiling as any option in this 8k range given his history of flirting with wins. We expect him to ride strong approach play and have a chance to be in the mix this week, making him a great GPP target to pair with a stud up top or slot into more balanced constructions.
Although there are many great options at $10,000 or above this week, it seems that Rickie Fowler has the lowest projected ownership of the group. As we mentioned above he finished 2nd here last season which propelled Rickie into having a nice bounce back season. Rickie has been great with his irons ranking 9th in approach and is able to capitalize to convert those to birdies, ranking 11th in BoB. Fowler has always been creative around the greens and his last 24 rounds have been no different ranking 3rd in sand saves and 6th ARG. He will look to try to get another win under his belt this week after coming so close last year. Rickie will be the lowest owned in his price range, making him a great pivot for leverage in GPP formats if you mass enter or want to fade a much chalkier Xander.
The clear optimal option in the tier of studs is going to be Xander Schaufele, who is very comfortable over here having won his gold medal just down the road from this course. Xander has three appearances at this tourney, racking up two top-10s and a top-20, and comes in with some of the best ball striking numbers in the field after his second place finish in the Tour Championship. Xander ranks top-5 amongst the field in Strokes Gained Approach, Opportunities Gained, Birdie or Better Gained, top-10 in Proximity from 100-125 yards, Strokes Gained Putting, and Tee to Green. He’s just playing incredible golf, and should be your stud in cash lineups without a doubt. He’s not a bad play in GPPs either, but he will be quite chalky so you’ll want to use the projections to be sure you roster someone lower owned to be unique.
The other more optimal target up top if you do not want to use Xander would be Collin Morikawa, who is still looking to get back into the winner’s circle for the first time in two seasons after some close calls. Collin comes in ranked top-5 amongst the field in Strokes Gained Approach, Opportunities Gained, Strokes Gained Tee to Green, and Proximity from 75-100 yards. Collin will catch a discount in ownership from Xander and Sungjae, and with how great his ball striking has been, we could see Collin making a run at this thing.
As far as value pieces go, KH Lee is far too cheap on this slate, as he comes in as the best point per dollar value play in our projections. Lee has turned it around since the turn of the season, as he has made two of the three cuts so far, racking up a top-15 and top-10 finish. His ball striking in these starts has been great, and his missed cut involved losing almost four strokes putting in two rounds. At this discounted price tag we believe Lee will be an optimal value piece to use in all your lineups. Lee makes for an elite target especially if you want to go with a stud/scrub construction style and target two of the big names from our trio of Xander/Collin/Rickie.
One of the chalkier value pieces that grades well for us to look at is Sam Ryder who leads the field in Strokes Gained Approach while being top-10 in Strokes Gained T2G, Proximity from 100-125 yards, Opportunities Gained, and Birdie or Better Gained. He has now made six straight cuts dating back to last season, with his approach play being the key reason. If there was a value guy to pivot off due to their low floor, Ryder is likely that guy given his historical high variance of outcomes, but we believe he is worth a look on this slate as his irons can stay hot and take him to the top. I may go with Ryder and Lee together in a stars & scrubs GPP build.
A few other options that look good in our projections as point per dollar value pieces are Brandon Wu, Satoshi Kodaira, Keita Nakajima, and Dylan Wu. We just wanted to provide you with a few extra value options since we think a stars & scrubs build is the move this week.