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The Phillies are sending Spencer Turnbull to the mound who has been shredding teams in the early going this season. He faces off with the Pittsburgh Pirates today. He was a human punching bag with the Tigers last season as he had a 7.26 ERA and 1.68 WHIP over seven starts. He had K rates of just 14.1% to lefties and 18.2% to righties which are terrible. Then, this season began. He made the Phillies rotation primarily because of Taijuan Walker’s injury and he has absolutely gone berzerk thus far. Over two starts, he has thrown 11 innings, allowed no earned runs (one total run) and just five hits and fanned 13 while walking just one. Simply god-tier numbers. Lefties have a 30% K rate and a .050 xISO/.207 xwOBA while righties have a 33.3% K rate and a .046/.272 line against him. He has done this against two solid offensive teams in the Reds and Cardinals too so it seems to be somewhat real. This should continue against the Pirates as he ranks in the 83rd percentile for xERA, 78th percentile for GB%, 78th percentile for Barrel rate, and 84th percentile for K rate.
Marco Gonzales will be on the mound for Pittsburgh and he is ripe for negative regression. He has only allowed three runs over 11 innings against the Nationals and Orioles and has fanned six hitters in those two starts. However, he is the proud owner of an xERA that sits at 6.01 and his xBA is .325, both of which rank in the 9th percentile this season. The Phillies bats have more than enough talent to get to him here. Lock in the Fighting Phils!